ZEC teeters below 500: Bearish engulfing points to a 470 test within 24 hours

ZEC snapshot and context (daily + hourly)

• Instrument: Zcash (ZEC/USD)
• Current price: 495.022
• Recent regime: Explosive October–mid-November uptrend (40 → ~736), followed by a broad distribution and corrective phase with lower highs/lows since the Nov 16 peak. Volatility remains extreme.
• Today’s tape (hourly): Opened around 526.7, faded all day in a persistent lower-highs/lower-lows channel, closed near the lows ~495. A clean break and hold below the psychological 500 level into the daily close.

1. Trend and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): After topping around 735–736 on Nov 16, price made successive lower highs (698 on Nov 16, 674 on Nov 19, 655 on Nov 20, 603–624 zone on Nov 23–25, 526 on Nov 26), and lower lows (443 on Nov 11, 517 on Nov 22, 512 on Nov 25, 495 today). Structure is decidedly corrective/bearish in the short-to-intermediate term within a still-elevated longer-term up-move.
• Intermediate structure: Price is oscillating within a broad 443–735 range but currently inhabits the lower half of the 23.6%–38.2% retracement band of the entire bull run. Momentum pressure remains to the downside after failing to reclaim 572–600 (23.6% Fib/20-DMA zone).
• Intraday (hourly): Well-defined descending channel today. Successive intraday supply levels formed at ~533 → ~526 → ~516 → ~508 → ~503 → ~500. Demand weakens, with lows stepping down 518 → 506 → 499 → 495. Intraday VWAP was lost and never reclaimed.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 572 (estimate from last 20 closes). Price is well below it, confirming short-term bearish bias.
• 20-day EMA (faster): Likely 545–555 (weighted by recent 500–520 closes). Price below EMA20 → downside momentum.
• 50-day SMA: Likely near 510–540 (dragged higher by November spikes but anchored by October levels). Price ~495 is around/below this zone, a sign of growing downside control.
• 200-day SMA: Far below current price given the months at sub-100 prior to October. Long-term trend still up, but irrelevant for 24h horizon. Interpretation: Short-term trend is down (below EMA/SMA20), momentum transition zone around the 50-day has been ceded to bears.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Est. 40–45. NMI (not massively oversold), leaves room for further downside before classical bounce signals (<30) appear.
• Hourly RSI: Hugged the 30–40 band through the day with minor recoveries failing near midline. Typical of a controlled intraday downtrend; bounces sold.
• MACD (daily): Bearish crossover after mid-Nov peak; histogram negative and likely expanding following today’s bearish candle. No bullish inflection yet.
• Stochastic RSI (hourly/daily): Hourly likely sub-50 with repeated resets failing; daily likely mid-to-low range, not reset to extreme oversold. Interpretation: Momentum remains bearish across timeframes; no convincing bullish divergence on the daily. Hourly could produce countertrend pops, but likely to be sold into.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily): Elevated (indicative ~60–100 range per day given recent candles). Expect ±10–15% swings possible in 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2 daily): Midline ~SMA20 ≈ 572. Lower band likely near low-400s given recent dispersion; price is below midline and traveling towards the lower band but not yet tagging it—room remains on the downside.
• Hourly Bollinger: Price hugged/rode the lower band into the close, consistent with trend continuation; expect mean-reversion bounces to mid-band (~505–510) followed by renewed pressure unless a decisive reclaim occurs. Interpretation: Volatility provides room to reach 480/470 in the next 24h without statistically exceptional movement.

5. Volume/flow and OBV-style read

• November upthrusts carried massive volume; the pullback has seen heavy distribution on down-days and mixed participation on bounces. Today’s intraday profile shows heavier prints on down legs (11:00, 13:00, 20:00–21:00), suggesting supply dominating on pushes lower.
• OBV proxy: Trending down since mid-Nov highs; no sustained accumulation signature yet at current levels. Interpretation: Distribution dominates; buyers not asserting control at 500.

6. Market profile / liquidity zones

• Visible nodes from recent trading: 600–620 (major), 540–560 (secondary), 500–515 (now overhead supply), 470–490 (developing demand/sponge). Below 470, a thinner pocket exists down to 450–455 then 443 swing low.
• Psychological levels: 500 flipped to resistance today; 480 and 470 next logical magnets/supports. Interpretation: If 500 remains unclaimed on retests, price likely rotates to 480/470 where thicker two-way trade can form.

7. Fibonacci map (major impulse 40 → 735.77)

• Range: 695.75
• 23.6%: ~571.5 (recent rejection zone, near 20-DMA)
• 38.2%: ~470.0 (key support/magnet)
• 50%: ~387.9
• 61.8%: ~306.1 Interpretation: Price is between 23.6% and 38.2%; a full test of 38.2% (~470) is a high-probability path if 500–510 caps any bounce. That confluences with S2 (see pivots) and historical intraday stalls.

8. Pivots (classic) using 11/26 H/L/C ≈ 532.693/493.007/526.517

• Pivot P: ~517.41
• R1: ~541.81, R2: ~557.09, R3: ~581.49
• S1: ~502.12, S2: ~477.72, S3: ~462.43 Today broke S1 and closed between S1 and S2. Next logical pivot destination: S2 ~477.7; extension risk to S3 ~462.4 if momentum accelerates.

9. VWAP views

• Daily VWAP (today): Lost early, subsequent retests failed; closed below—short-term sellers in control.
• Anchored VWAP (from Nov peak): Likely 550–580; price well below anchored VWAP, confirming distribution. Interpretation: Unless VWAP is reclaimed on sustained volume, rallies should fade.

10. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan (9) and likely below Kijun (26)—both tilted down.
• Span A likely rolling over; cloud above/beside price. Chikou span probably below price-action cluster. Interpretation: Bearish alignment with potential for continued drift lower before a basing attempt.

11. Candles and patterns

• Today: Bearish wide-range red day closing near the lows (quasi-marubozu), following a small green day. The body engulfs the prior real body—classic bearish engulfing continuation.
• Hourly: Series of bear flags and failed bounces. No strong reversal candles into the close. Interpretation: Pattern continuation favors a push lower before a meaningful countertrend rally.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Possible structure: Wave 3 blowoff into Nov 7–16 zone, Wave A down into Nov 11 (443), Wave B up into Nov 16 (~698), and an ongoing C-wave down that often targets 0.382–0.5 retrace of the whole impulse (470 then 388). Near-term, 470 is the most natural waypoint; 388 is a deeper extension not assumed in 24h.
• Wyckoff: Late-stage distribution characteristics—upthrust after distribution (UAD) in mid-Nov, sign of weakness (SOW) on subsequent breaks, and LPSY rallies failing at lower highs (e.g., 526 on Nov 26). Current drift looks like markdown continuation.

13. Corroborating signals and confluence

• Confluence support: 470–480 (38.2% Fib ~470; S2 ~477.7; historical micro-nodes).
• Overhead supply: 500–515 (psychological + intraday supply), then 526–533 (yesterday’s high), then 541–557 (R1/R2 cluster).
• Momentum and trend filters agree with bearish bias; volume supports distribution; pivots/Fibs point to 480/470 test.

14. Scenario planning (next 24 hours) Base case (60%): Retest 500–505 fails → drift to 485–480 → spike probe into 475–472 area (S2/38.2% Fib proximity) → short-cover bounce late session back toward 490–495. Net negative day with low set near 472–478. Bullish alternate (25%): Quick reclaim of 500, push to 507–513 (hourly mid/upper band), maybe 518–526 squeeze. Fails below 532, stalls and ranges 505–520. Requires decisive VWAP reclaim and better buy volumes. Bearish extension (15%): Accelerated selling slice through 477 → 468–462 (test S3) → oversold bounce. Would likely require broad market risk-off or negative catalyst.

15. Trade plan (short-term tactical)

• Bias: Sell rallies while below 500–510 and especially while below 520.
• Optimal entry: Short into a retest of broken 500–505 resistance for improved R:R. If bounce extends, next tier to sell is 507–513. Avoid chasing at 495 if liquidity is thin; allow a pop to replenish liquidity.
• Take-profit target: First target 477–474 (ahead of S2/Fib magnet) to increase fill probability. Stretch/runner could aim 468–465 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation/stop (analysis detail, not part of structured fields): Above 513–515 (a clean reclaim of hourly supply and VWAP hold) or, more conservatively, above ~526 if allowing more room.
• Risk: ATR suggests a 60–80 move is normal; sizing should reflect potential intraday squeezes.

16. Key levels and triggers

• Resistance/supply: 500–505 (flip zone), 507–513 (hourly supply), 526–533 (intraday swing), 541–557 (R1/R2).
• Support/demand: 495 (today’s close/print), 490/485 (micro), 480, 477.7 (S2), 471 (38.2% Fib), 465–462 (S3 area), 443 (Nov 11 swing low).
• Triggers: Sell rejection wicks at 500–505 with RSI failing at 50 on the hourly; add on break of 490 if momentum/volume expand.

17. Risk management micro-notes

• Expect head-fakes around 500. Use confirmation (failure to reclaim VWAP/EMA20 on the 15–60m) before adding.
• Partial scale-out near 480–477; leave a runner for 472–468 if tape accelerates.
• If price reclaims 513 and holds above hourly VWAP, shorts risk a squeeze to 526; respect stops.

Bottom line conclusion

• The weight of evidence (trend below short MAs, negative momentum, bearish candle, loss of 500, VWAP below, pivot structure pointing to S2) favors a tactical short. Base case path is a push into 480–472 within 24 hours, with bounces failing under 505–513.

Decision and execution

• Position: Sell (Short).
• Optimal entry (sell limit): ~501.8 on a bounce/retest of the 500–505 flip zone to maximize R:R.
• Take profit: ~472.0 (just above the 38.2% Fib confluence and near S2) to improve fill odds within 24h.
• Context: If no bounce materializes and price slides immediately from 495, discretionary traders could consider piecemeal entries on a weak rally to 498–500 with the same target; however, the stated optimal plan is to sell the retest near 501.8.