Zcash at the Edge: Short the Bounce as Momentum Cracks Below the 20-Day Mean

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical review for ZEC/USD (current price ~456.18)

1. Market regime and structure

• Trend state (daily): After a parabolic advance into mid-November (peak ~735–736), price has transitioned into a corrective downtrend with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 11/16–11/20. The last two daily sessions are broad-bodied red candles, and today’s candle is a near Marubozu (open≈high 489.8, close≈456.2, low≈452.0), signaling persistent intraday supply.
• Market structure levels: Key resistance layers cluster at 468–476 (intraday supply and 1h MA confluence), 482–490 (failed retests today), 519–526 (recent breakdown pivot), and 571–575 (20D mean zone). Supports sit at 456–452 (today’s intraday floor), 445–443 (11/11 pivot and full retrace of the 11/11→11/16 leg), then 432–430, and psychological 400.
• Regime inference: Shift from momentum-trend (up) to corrective-trend (down) with rising trend strength (see ADX) and momentum under zero (see MACD/ROC). Bias short until evidence of reclaiming key pivots (≥490/500).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA/EMA (approx): ~564. Price trades ~19% below the 20D mean, firmly sub-trend and within the lower volatility envelope; rallies toward the mean are likely to encounter supply.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~500–510. Price below the 50D confirms a medium-term bearish shift.
• 100-day SMA (approx): materially lower (~250–300, due to early data near 40–200), still below price; long-term trend remains up, but that’s less relevant for a 24h horizon.
• 1h MAs: 1h 20EMA ~471, 1h 50EMA ~478, 1h 200EMA ~495. Intraday trend is clearly down with a stacked bearish alignment (price < 20EMA < 50EMA < 200EMA). Expect first-touch rejections into 468–478.
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Flipped above price post-11/21; remains bearish.
• Ichimoku (daily, approximated): Price is below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud resistance projected above 520–560 region. No bullish edge until recapture of Tenkan/Kijun; lagging span likely facing resistance blocks from late November.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~38. Weakening but not yet oversold (<30). Momentum bearish with room to extend lower; also room for brief mean-reversion bounces.
• Stochastics (daily): Low-mid range and curling, consistent with downtrend; expect sell-the-bounce behavior until ≥50/60 reclaimed.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross below signal; histogram negative and expanding earlier this week, consistent with ongoing downside pressure.
• ROC: 1D ROC ≈ -6–7%; 5D ROC ~ -12%; 10D ROC ~ -20%. Clear deceleration from the mid-month top.
• ADX/DMI (daily): ADX rising with -DI > +DI. Strengthening bearish trend.
• TSI/CCI (qualitative): Under zero, pointing down—confirms bearish momentum regime.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): Elevated from the prior weeks (~70–120 range). Today’s true range (~38) is below recent ATR, indicating volatility contraction intraday after prior expansions; often precedes another directional move.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~564, lower band estimated ~380–400 (given elevated std). Price is below mid-band and in the lower band zone—bearish but not at an extreme pierce; bounces tend to fade before mid-band.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Price hugging/below lower Keltner—trending market with downside skew.

5. Volume, flow, and accumulation/distribution

• Volume trend: Post-peak, down days have been heavy; recent two sessions show moderate-high but slightly declining volume as price fades (11/26: ~938M; 11/27: ~853M; today ~860M). Selling pressure persists but shows a small taper—this often allows countertrend bounces into supply before the next leg down.
• OBV (qualitative): Rolling over since 11/20; no sign of accumulation.
• MFI (14) (approx): Mid-30s—oversold leaning, yet not in capitulation. Room for further distribution.
• Wyckoff lens: After the buying climax in mid-Nov, the market shows an upthrust-after-distribution behavior and sign of markdown. Current phase resembles the early to mid markdown, not yet a clear accumulation range.

6. Price action patterns and candlesticks

• Candlesticks: Consecutive bearish bodies; today’s long-bodied red near Marubozu marks control by sellers. No reversal candle printed yet (e.g., hammer/engulfing) on daily.
• Intraday structure: 1h descending channel with multiple failed retests at 471–482 and consistent lower highs. A relief pop into 468–476 is attractive for fades.
• Liquidity and sweeps: The 443–445 zone is a prior reaction low and liquidity pool; sweeps below 445 could spike to ~432–435 before a stronger bounce. Protects short targets to avoid a hard bounce off that shelf.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Fib retracement (leg 11/11 low ~443 → 11/16 high ~736): 61.8% ≈ 555, 78.6% ≈ 506. Price is now below 78.6% retrace and near a full round-trip to 443—weakness confirmed.
• Fib extensions from the 11/21 breakdown: 1.272 extension projects into the low-440s; 1.618 near ~420. These align with the 443–445 support shelf and the 430–420 secondary demand.
• Measured move of the recent bear flag (11/24–11/26 consolidation around 520–530): Projected target landed in the 455–460 region (hit). Next extension favors 438–445 on continuation.

8. Anchored VWAP/VWAP

• AVWAP from the mid-Nov peak (~736): Sits well above current price (likely ~560–580), reinforcing overhead supply.
• AVWAP from 11/21 selloff pivot (~655): Also above price (~520–540). Both anchor points act as dynamic resistance; rallies into them are sellable for a 24h horizon.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Most of the session traded below VWAP, with failed reclaim attempts around 472–480—classic trend day down behavior.

9. Risk and scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (prob. ~60%): A modest relief bounce toward 468–476 fails; price rolls over and tests 445–443. Partial sweeps into 438–442 possible before a reaction bounce. Expected daily range: roughly 430–482, with a bearish drift.
• Bullish alt (prob. ~25%): Stronger squeeze if 482/490 is reclaimed on volume, targeting 500–505, possibly a gap-fill to 519–526 if momentum accelerates. This would still be a rally into supply unless sustained above ~526.
• Bearish tail (prob. ~15%): Direct breakdown through 445 to 432–430 and possibly 420 if liquidity vacuum forms. Would likely require a volatility expansion and higher sell volume than today.

10. Tactical plan and execution logic

• Short-the-bounce setup: Given the downtrend (price below 1h/4h MAs, bearish MACD/RSI, rising ADX), the higher-probability trade within 24h is to sell a retrace into the 468–476 supply zone, which aligns with 1h 20EMA/50EMA resistance and multiple intraday swing highs.
• Entry: Optimal short entry ~468.0 (allow a wick into 471–476). This improves R:R versus shorting at current 456 near support.
• Target: Take profit near 438.0 to front-run the 443–445 shelf and the 1.272 extension. Deeper extensions to 432–430 exist, but the 24h window and the likelihood of a reaction off 443 argue for conservative TP.
• Invalidation (stop placement, for risk control): Above 490–495 (hourly 200EMA and prior breakdown area). A decisive reclaim of 490 negates the immediate bearish intraday thesis and risks a squeeze toward 505–526.

11. Confluence summary supporting the short

• Trend filters (20D, 50D MAs) bearishly aligned with price well below both; 1h MA stack is decisively bearish.
• Momentum suite (RSI ~38, MACD < 0, ROC negative, ADX rising with -DI dominance) confirms sellers in control.
• Bands and channels (BB lower zone, Keltner lower channel) indicate a trending environment where fades of bounces are favored.
• Structure: Lower highs/lows, failed reclaims of 472–482, and a clean supply shelf at 468–476.
• Fib/targets: Trading below 78.6% retrace of the 11/11–11/16 leg; projected continuation aligns with 438–445.

12. 24-hour price path prediction

• Expected path: Early bounce attempts stall near 468–475; rollover into 448–445; liquidity probe to 441–438 where responsive bids appear.
• Range projection: 430–482 with bearish drift; volatility may expand from today’s contracted range.

Bottom line: The dominant signals favor selling a bounce rather than buying a dip into nearby support. Short at 468 with TP 438 optimizes entry quality while respecting the 443–445 demand shelf.

Decision: Sell (Short Position) Open: 468.0 (sell the retrace into intraday supply) Close/TP: 438.0 (front-run major support at 443–445) Optional risk control (not requested but recommended): Stop 492–495 to avoid a squeeze regime shift above hourly 200EMA.