Zcash’s Bounce Looks Tired: Fading 355–358 For A Slide Into 318

Instrument: Zcash (ZEC) USD Current price (spot): 347.67 Timeframe analyzed: Daily + 4H/1H intraday from the provided history Horizon: Next 24 hours

1. Market structure and trend (top-down)

• Daily trend: Dominant downtrend since mid-November. After a vertical blow-off to 735–736 (Nov 7–16 cluster) price cascaded with persistent lower highs and lower lows. The sequence from Nov 19 onward shows distribution and then acceleration lower. Daily closes have moved well below the 20-day mean, signaling trend deterioration.
• Recent regime shift: Nov 30–Dec 2 delivered capitulation-like range expansion (Dec 1 daily range ~104 and very heavy volume). The follow-through on Dec 2 made new lows near 307, then today intraday bounced to 377 before being sold back to the mid-340s. This is classic bear-market rally behavior inside a larger downtrend.
• 4H/1H structure: Since the 302.8–307 swing lows, price rallied in a sharp counter-move to 377.2 (1H), failed to hold above the 370s supply and snapped quickly back to the mid-340s. This prints a lower high vs. the 411–445 area from early November and even vs. the 405 pivot from Oct 31. On the 1H, the failed breakout and swift rejection at 374–377 marks a fresh supply zone.
• Conclusion: Macro downtrend intact; short-term bounce faded. Expect range-to-down behavior unless 377–405 is reclaimed decisively.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, pivots, and Fibs)

• Resistance/supply: • 374–377: Intraday supply. Two swift rejections today (18–19:00 and follow-through failure). Priority level for short entries. • 361–362: Classic Pivot R1 from Dec 2 calculation (~361.65). Price failed above here after the 18:00 spike. • 405–412: Late-Oct/Nov pivot cluster and 0.786 retrace of the Oct 28 → Nov 16 impulse. Strong higher-timeframe supply.
• Support/demand: • 345–348: Current price zone; 1H mean area and 0.618 of the latest 302.8→377 up-leg (calc ~348.7). First intraday battleground. • 340–341: 50% retrace of that same 302.8→377 leg (calc ~340.0) and prior intraday rotation base. • 331–336: 0.382 retrace zone (calc ~331.2) plus multiple 1H basing attempts earlier; also near the classic daily Pivot P from Dec 2 (~334.4). Expect responsive bids. • 313–318: Shelf just above the Dec 2 close; daily swing interest; psychological line before 300. • 302–305: Intraday spike low today; “line in the sand” for a deeper flush scenario.

3. Volatility and regime

• Daily ATR has expanded massively since the parabolic top; recent sessions show 60–120 point ranges. Expect ongoing high volatility. Intraday ranges today already covered ~74 points (302.8→377.2). High ATR favors fading extreme tests back to mean zones, but the broader downtrend keeps bounces vulnerable.

4. Moving averages (directional bias)

• Daily fast MAs (10/20 EMA/SMA) are sloped down and well above price, consistent with trend pressure. Price is far below the 20D mean, indicating either an oversold bounce or trend continuation; given repeated supply responses, continuation risk still elevated.
• 4H/1H: Price briefly rose above fast intraday EMAs during the bounce but rolled over after the 377 rejection, suggesting momentum stalling beneath the 1H/4H midlines and reverting toward lower supports.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely hovering near low-30s after the capitulation. This is oversold territory but not a standalone buy signal in a trending market; in strong downtrends RSI can remain depressed.
• 1H RSI: Reached overbought on the push to 377 and has since rolled down toward neutral, consistent with a failed rally. Potential bearish divergence versus momentum on the second test into the 370s.
• StochRSI (intraday): Flipped from upper band toward mid/lower band into the late session; implies momentum reversion lower or at least chop.

6. MACD (trend/momentum confirmation)

• Daily MACD: Negative and below signal, histogram still sub-zero; confirms the dominant downtrend.
• 1H MACD: Rolled over after the spike to 377, likely showing a lower histogram peak vs. price (bearish divergence). Supports short-bias near supply levels.

7. Bollinger/Keltner Bands

• Daily BB: Price has been riding/living near the lower band since late November; today’s bounce tagged upper intraday envelopes and then snapped back, which is typical of mean-reversion inside a larger down move.
• 1H BB: The 18–19:00 spike stretched the upper band; price mean-reverted quickly back under the band and toward the midline (~345–350). Now bandwidth is still wide; likely oscillation between midline and lower band (i.e., retests of 336–340 then 331).

8. Ichimoku (trend filter)

• Daily: Price below cloud, below Kijun and Tenkan, with a large cloud overhead from the parabola. Strongly bearish regime.
• 1H/4H: Price lost the intraday conversion line after the rejection; baseline is above current price with a thick cloud overhead between ~355 and 380. Any rallies into 355–377 are into cloud/supply resistance.

9. ADX/Trend strength

• Trend strength metrics remain elevated post-blow-off. Negative DI dominance is expected on daily; intraday ADX likely paused during bounce but reasserts as the rejection develops. Net: trend pressure favors sell-the-rip setups.

10. Volume, OBV, and effort vs. result

• Volume climax days on Nov 30–Dec 2 featured large red candles and heavy distribution. Today’s early bounce printed decent volume on the rise but the rejection bar into the 20:00 hour saw swift net negative result with price slippage back into the mid-340s.
• OBV (qualitative read): Lower highs since mid-Nov; today’s rejection suggests OBV rollover intraday. This aligns with supply defending 370s.

11. Fibonacci mapping (multiple anchors)

• Macro retrace: Nov 16 high ~735.8 → Dec 2 low ~307.2. The 0.236 retrace from the low sits near ~408; price could not even reclaim that shallow level, underscoring weakness.
• Local leg: 302.8 → 377.2 • 0.618: ~348.7 (current price zone; being tested from above) • 0.5: ~340.0 (next pullback magnet) • 0.382: ~331.2 (deeper retrace; strong intraday support confluence) A move through 348 → 340 → 331 in sequence is a reasonable 24h path in a fading-bounce scenario.

12. Pivot points (classic, from Dec 2 H/L/C: 382.40/307.23/313.69)

• P ≈ 334.44; R1 ≈ 361.65; S1 ≈ 286.48
• Today price pierced above P and tested R1 on the spike; it failed to hold above R1 and is now rotating between P and R1. Balance between 334 and 362 is probable; fades near R1 and buys near P typically work in this regime. Given broader downtrend, favor shorts nearer R1.

13. Pattern work

• 1H shows a sharp V-bounce morphing into a potential bear flag/descending channel after rejection at 377. Loss of 345–348 opens a slide toward 340, with a measured move into 331–336. A decisive break of 331 can invite a 318–320 tag; under that, liquidity at 302–305.
• Daily resembles a waterfall decline with intermittent dead-cat bounces. No confirmed base/accumulation pattern yet (no higher low/higher high sequence on daily).

14. VWAP/anchored concepts (qualitative)

• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 1 capitulation zone likely tracks in the 350s–360s; price failing beneath/around that anchor after the 377 tag supports the notion of sellers regaining control near that band.

15. Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (range-to-down, ~55%): Failures into 351–356 get sold, leading to a drift toward 340 and 331–336. One or two reactive bounces likely; net lower close vs. 347–350 is plausible.
• Bear extension (breakdown, ~30–35%): After 331–336 tests, momentum accelerates to 318–320; if risk-off intensifies, a fast probe into 302–305 wicks and quickly rebounds.
• Squeeze risk (counter-trend, ~10–15%): If 356 is reclaimed and held, a squeeze can retest 371–377. Only above and holding 377 would open 395–405, which is the next durable supply. This is lower probability without fresh catalysts.

16. Trade thesis (tactical)

• Bias: Sell the rip into the 355–358 zone (prior intraday supply, near intraday VWAP/MA confluence) with targets back into 331–336 and a stretch to 318.
• Rationale: Macro downtrend, failed breakout at 377, oscillators rolling over on 1H, repeated supply at 370s, price losing 0.618 of the up-leg likely pushes to 0.5/0.382 retraces (340 → 331), and pivot framework favors fades under R1. Volatility supports decisive moves once 345 gives way.
• Risk management (contextual): A protective stop above 377–381 (outside supply) invalidates the setup and preserves capital. If the market reclaims 377 with force, the path of least resistance flips to a squeeze into 395–405.

17. Execution details

• Optimal entry: Use a sell-limit in front of the 355–358 supply band to capture a liquidity sweep. If the bounce tops earlier, consider a second-chance entry on a breakdown retest below 345–348.
• Profit-taking: First objective around 336–340; main target 318–320 where buyers likely defend. If momentum is strong and tape heavy, trail partials for an extension into 303–305.
• Time-in-trade: Expect fill and progression within 24 hours given current ATR and intraday structure.

Decision and levels

• Decision: Sell (Short position)
• Open (optimal): 355.8 (sell-limit into supply)
• Close (take-profit): 318.0 (above the strong 313–318 shelf to maximize fill probability within 24h)

Risk note: High volatility is a double-edged sword. Size appropriately. A hard stop above 377–381 is prudent to avoid a squeeze scenario.

Summary of the call

• The failed thrust to 377, rejection back to the mid-340s, macro downtrend, and multiple confluences (R1 rejection, 0.618 retrace loss, bearish 1H momentum) collectively favor shorting bounces into 355–358, aiming for a 331–336 test and a core target at ~318 over the next day. Odds of a squeeze diminish unless 356 is reclaimed and 377 is broken and held.