Zcash coiled at 0.236 Fib: poised to attack 451 and sprint toward 482

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis (ZECUSD)

Context and structure

• Regime change: ZEC ran parabolic to 736.51 (Nov 7), sold off in a three-leg corrective structure into a capitulation low at 325.60 (Dec 1). Since then: basing, then a thrust higher (Dec 8–9). Current price 424.83.
• Market structure daily: Higher low versus Dec 1 and a close above the early December swing-high cluster (~404) on Dec 8 signals a constructive shift from distribution to early re-accumulation. Dec 9 session printed a higher high (447.93) and a higher low (392.64) vs. prior session.

Key levels (confluence driven)

• Support: 405–408 (prior breakout/close), 395–396 (S1 pivot for next session), 392.6 (Dec 9 intraday low), 366–370 (S2 pivot), 342–343 (base shelf Dec 1–7).
• Resistance: 447–451 (intraday supply + R1 pivot), 471–477 (R2 pivot), 482–485 (0.382 retrace of 736→326 leg), 500–506 (round + R3 pivot), 531 (0.5 retrace), 546–550 (20D-50D congestion earlier in Nov).

Classical indicators

• Moving averages (approx): • 5D SMA ≈ 375.1; 10D SMA ≈ 366.5; 20D SMA ≈ 445.8. • Alignment: Price > 5D and 10D (bullish short-term momentum), but < 20D (trend still recovering). Early bullish transition (5D > 10D), 10D rising toward 20D.
• RSI (daily, inferred): Reclaimed midline; likely 50–55 after rebounding from oversold on Dec 1. Hourly RSI pulled back from overbought on the 446–448 push, resetting near neutral—constructive for another attempt up.
• MACD (daily, inferred): Histogram turned up; fast/slow lines curling for or recently made a bull cross. Hourly MACD showed brief negative divergence into 446–448 and then reset—healthy digestion.
• Stochastic: Lifted from oversold; fast line cycling toward 60–70. Not extended.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, inferred): Price rode upper band on Dec 8, then mean-reverted. Bands still relatively wide from prior expansion; mid-band likely ~20D SMA near 446. Price below mid-band—room to expand upward if 447–451 breaks.

Volatility and range

• Recent daily ranges: ~18–104 with an average near 60–70. ATR(14) estimated ~65. Expected 24h envelope from 425 is roughly 425 ± 65: 360–490 with path-dependent skew.

Volume and OBV

• Volume expanded on the Dec 8 upside drive and held firm on Dec 9, suggesting accumulation on up-moves and controlled pullbacks. OBV slope likely turning up after a protracted decline—supports the bullish case if resistance gives way.

Fibonacci mapping (key swing: 736.51 → 325.60)

• 23.6%: 423.58 — current price is straddling this; it’s acting as a pivot.
• 38.2%: 482.60 — major upside magnet on breakout.
• 50%: 531.06 — secondary objective beyond 24h horizon unless momentum surges. Consequence: The market is testing the initial retracement pivot; clearance and acceptance above 447–451 opens path to 472–485 (close to R2 and the 38.2%).

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price reclaimed Tenkan (9) decisively on Dec 8; Kijun (26) likely much higher (~500s) and flat, forming a magnet for medium term. Cloud still overhead; early reversal regime. Tenkan > Kijun cross not yet; Chikou lag likely below price but lifting. Net: early bullish, not fully confirmed.

Anchored VWAPs (qualitative)

• From the Dec 1 low: AVWAP likely ~360–370; price is above—bullish. From the Nov 7 high: AVWAP still well above current price—macro sellers still in control at higher levels, but near-term buyers control sub-450.

Market profile / volume nodes (qualitative)

• High-volume nodes around 420–430 and 445–450 from intraday rotation; value migrating higher from the 340s base. The 447–451 region is a clear supply node; volume acceptance above it likely triggers a fast move toward the next node near 470–485.

Pivot points (using Dec 9 OHLC: H 447.93, L 392.64, C 424.83)

• P = 421.80
• R1 = 450.97
• S1 = 395.67
• R2 = 477.10
• S2 = 366.50
• R3 = 506.26 Confluence: R1 ~451 aligns with the intraday supply cap; R2 ~477 aligns with the next upside target zone; R3 near 506 converges with psychological 500.

Pattern diagnostics

• Wyckoff lens: Potential accumulation after capitulation—PS (preliminary support) late Nov, SC (selling climax) Dec 1, AR (automatic rally) Dec 2–5, ST in phase B near 342–360 multiple times, then a sign of strength (SOS) on Dec 8 with good volume. Now backing up to the breakout area (~420) and re-testing. A successful test sets up a push into 470–485.
• Elliott count (tactical): ABC corrective down from 736 to 326 appears complete. New impulsive wave likely underway: Wave 1 = 326→405, Wave 2 pullback shallow (to ~380–395 area intraday on Dec 9), Wave 3 potential aims at 482–531. Near-term objective for the next 24h: top of 1.272–1.414 extensions from intraday swings lines up ~472–488.
• Regression channel (from Dec 1): Up-sloped channel; price currently near the midline after touching upper boundary around 446–448—often a staging area before the next advance if midline holds (~418–422).

Price action micro (Dec 9 intraday)

• High 447.93 rejected; sellers defended R1. Subsequent rotation lower was controlled; buyers re-appeared near 424–427 and earlier at 412–416. Value held above VWAP for much of the US session; late-day prints centered around 424–430, showing balance at the day’s pivot (421.8–424). This is constructive for a subsequent R1 retest.

Confluences supporting a bullish 24h skew

• Structural higher high and higher low on daily; reclaimed short MAs; MACD/RSI up; OBV uptick; Wyckoff SOS + back-up; AVWAP from the low supportive; Pivot R1 at 451 is close enough to be tested again; 0.236 Fib pivot reclaimed.

Bearish risks and invalidation

• Failure to hold 421–418 (daily pivot/MDVWAP area) increases odds of a full retest of 405–408; a break of 395–396 (S1) risks return to 366–370 (S2) and damages the nascent uptrend. Macro downtrend from 736 is not fully negated while below the 20D/50D and Kijun.

24-hour path projection

• Base case (60%): Early dip into 416–421, buyers defend; push to 447–451; break and extend toward 472–477; tails into 480–485 possible on momentum. Close in the 455–475 band.
• Bear case (25%): Lose 418, then 405–408; probe 395–396 (S1). Bounce, but finish sub-430.
• Surge case (15%): One-way momentum breakout through 451, shallow flag, then squeeze to 500–506 (R3) if broader crypto risk-on accelerates.

Trade plan (1–2 day tactical)

• Bias: Buy dips with breakout add, targeting the 0.382 Fib / R2 confluence.
• Optimal entry zone: 413–417 (prior demand, just below day pivot, above S1). Secondary trigger: momentum add above 451 on volume.
• Take profit (24h): 482–485 zone (0.382 Fib 482.6; near R2-to-R2.5 extension).
• Risk guardrail (not part of the schema but recommended): Stop 404–406 (below breakout base). Reward:risk from 416→482 ≈ +66 vs. −10 to −12 = ~5.5:1.

Decision synthesis

• Multiple-method confluence favors a Buy-the-dip approach: structure shift positive, indicators turning up, and tight invalidation below 405. Expect a retest of 447–451 and a probability-weighted stab toward 472–485 within 24h if R1 breaks.