ZEC coiling under 468: ascending triangle primed for a breakout toward 490 in the next 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish, expecting a topside break of the 466–468 resistance band with follow‑through toward 480–492 if volume expands. Preferred entry is a buy‑the‑dip into 452–456 support; alternate trigger is a breakout acceptance above 468.
• Rationale: Price is riding above the 20‑day SMA with improving momentum (daily RSI ~51, positive/flattening MACD), a sequence of higher lows since Dec 1, and a well‑defined local ceiling at 466–468 (ascending triangle/inverse H&S neckline). Confluence targets cluster at 475–496 (38.2% retrace of the Nov crash, measured move of the neckline break, and fib extensions of the latest swing).

Step‑by‑step technical analysis

1. Price action and structure (multi‑timeframe)

• Daily trend: After a parabolic advance to ~736 (Nov 7) and a sharp correction to ~314 (Dec 2), ZEC has carved a higher‑low base and rallied back above 400. The sequence since the low is constructive: 313.7 (Dec 2) → 339.4 (Dec 3) → 341.97 (Dec 6) → 405.4 (Dec 8) → 404.6 (Dec 10 pullback) → 450.6 (Dec 11 close) → 457.5 (current). This is a textbook basing then markup structure.
• Local market structure: A flat supply shelf at 466–468 has capped multiple intraday attempts (Dec 12 14:00 high 466.8). Lows are rising (451 → 453 → 455), producing an ascending triangle beneath resistance. Breakouts from such structures tend to target the prior imbalance area above (480s–490s first, psychological 500 next).
• Intraday (hourly) range: 24h developing value between ~451 and ~466, with value migrating slightly higher and repeated rejections near 466. That’s classic energy build beneath resistance.

2. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Immediate resistance: 466–468 (intraday supply/triangle lid). Above that: 475–480 (fib 38.2% retrace confluence), 490–502 (1.272–1.618 extension of latest swing; prior congestion from early Nov; psychological 500).
• Immediate support: 452–456 (intraday higher‑low shelf and session VWAP neighborhood), then 432–435 (Dec 9 close/structure pivot), then 405–410 (Dec 8 breakout area). Major higher‑timeframe support: 342–345 (Dec 1 base) if a shock drawdown occurs.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20‑day SMA (approx): ~426 and rising. Price at 457 is above the 20SMA, indicating short‑term uptrend and active support on pullbacks.
• 50‑day SMA (approx, smoothed by Oct–Nov prints): flattening in the mid‑ to high‑400s; price is oscillating around/just below it, typical during transition from correction to new up leg. A sustained hold above ~468 would start to slope the 50SMA upward again.
• Fast EMAs: The 8/21 EMA pair has turned bullish since the Dec 8 breakout over ~405; pullbacks have been bought above the 21EMA region.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): ~50–51 by calculation (avg gain ~14.58 vs avg loss ~14.18), i.e., neutral‑to‑slightly bullish. Importantly, RSI has recovered from deeply oversold early Dec and is holding midline on pullbacks—consistent with continuation rather than immediate mean reversion lower.
• Hourly RSI: cycling between 45–60 across the 451–466 range, showing consolidation rather than bearish divergence. A spike >60 on a 468 break would confirm momentum ignition.
• MACD (daily): Histogram has flipped positive since early Dec; signal lines near a zero‑line cross/expansion. That supports the view of a new upswing emerging from the base.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is above the mid‑band (≈20SMA) and below the upper band, with bandwidth meaningfully narrower than late Nov/early Dec—classic squeeze/coil dynamics. A topside expansion from a squeeze statistically favors trend continuation in the direction of the break (currently up from the 20SMA).
• ATR(14) (est.): Elevated but declining from the panic highs; daily ATR roughly in the 60–90 range. A 1/2 to 3/4 ATR move fits a 24h objective into 480–495 if resistance yields.

6. Volume/market profile

• Volume: Washout volumes into Dec 1–3 established a durable base. The Dec 8 break above ~405 occurred on expanding volume, validating that level as a structural support. Recent sessions show healthy participation without distribution spikes at the highs.
• Profile: Point of control has migrated into the 450s. There’s a low‑volume pocket above 468 into the high‑470s/low‑480s; once accepted above 468, price often traverses these pockets quickly toward the next high‑volume node near ~490–500.

7. Pattern studies and measured moves

• Ascending triangle: Height ≈ 466.8 lid minus 451 base ≈ 15–16. A conservative measured move on breakout targets ~482–484; with momentum continuation, overshoots into ~490s are common.
• Inverse head & shoulders (daily): Left shoulder ~342–360 (Dec 5), head ~314–342 (Dec 1–3), right shoulder ~342–360 (Dec 6–7), neckline ≈ 405 was broken Dec 8 with volume. Measured move ≈ neckline (405) + (405–314) ≈ 496, aligning with the 490–500 confluence zone.

8. Fibonacci confluence

• Retracement of the Nov high (~736) to Dec low (~314): 38.2% = ~475, 50% = ~525, 61.8% = ~575. The first major fib test overhead is ~475, almost exactly where the post‑breakout vacuum begins—strong confluence.
• Extension of the latest up‑leg (rough 404.6 → 466.8): 1.272 ≈ 485, 1.618 ≈ 502. These bracket the 490 psychological zone.

9. Ichimoku lens (directional filter)

• Price is above the Tenkan with Kijun rising from the 400s; Chikou has cleared recent price action. While cloud geometry remains wide after the crash, the short‑term signals are supportive of further upside provided price stays above ~452–456 on a closing basis.

10. VWAPs and anchoring

• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 1–2 capitulation low sits in the low‑420s; price is well above it, indicating the base is held by profitable longs. Session VWAP today has hugged the mid‑450s; maintaining bids above VWAP during NY hours favors an afternoon/evening breakout attempt.

11. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Micro count from the 313 low can be framed as: (1) 313→405, (2) 405→342, (3) 342→467, (4) sideways flag 451–466, and a developing (5) that typically travels to 1.0–1.272× wave 1 distance above wave 4 range—again pointing to the 485–500 zone.

12. Correlation and regime context

• Crypto beta: ZEC typically correlates positively with broad crypto risk. With sentiment stabilizing after early‑Dec liquidations and several alts basing similarly, rotation into laggards frequently fuels quick 5–10% moves once key lids break.

13. Candlestick and timing cues

• Today’s daily is a relatively small real body beneath resistance (potential inside/coil day), often a precursor to range expansion the next session. Multiple intraday upper wicks at ~466–467 show supply, but each sell‑off is making shallower lows—a sign of absorption.

Synthesis and 24h forecast

• Confluence: Ascending triangle + inverse H&S measured move + fib 38.2% + positive MACD + RSI >50 + price above 20SMA + profile vacuum above 468.
• Base case (≈60%): Break and hold above 468 leads to a push into 475–485 with extension toward 490–495 if momentum persists.
• Alternate (≈25%): Another rotation within 451–466 as supply absorbs. Dips into 452–456 likely attract bids; structure remains intact.
• Adverse (≈15%): Loss of 451 on volume opens a shakeout toward 433–435; only a daily close <432 would negate the immediate bullish bias.

Trade plan and execution

• Stance: Buy the dip into support, targeting the 485–495 area over the next 24 hours. Secondary tactic: add/trigger on breakout acceptance above 468 if dip isn’t offered.
• Risk: A logical invalidation sits below 445–446 (beneath intraday swing lows/VWAP), but we focus here on entry/exit per request. This plan assumes normal volatility and avoids chasing into 470s unless accepted above 468 with expanding volume.

Bottom line: Bullish continuation favored; optimal entry in mid‑450s with profit objective near 490 aligns with multi‑tool confluence and expected 24h range expansion.