Zcash poised for a 24‑hour rebound: Hammer off Fib support targets 422–432

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish rebound toward 422–432 after an intraday spring; risk of retest 403–406 first.
• Setups that agree: Fibonacci confluence (38.2% of the Dec rally), daily hammer-like recovery, pivot R1 alignment, intraday higher lows, Tenkan support, hourly momentum inflection, Wyckoff spring.
• Setups that disagree: Down-sloping short-term trendline (468→417), price still below daily Kijun and 50D MA; broader context remains corrective since mid-Nov.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Higher time frame (daily): • From the Nov peak (~736) to Dec 1 low (342), then a recovery to ~469 on Dec 11–13, followed by a pullback into today. The macro structure since Dec 1 remains a higher-low regime (313→377) within a larger corrective downtrend off the November top. • Last 6 daily closes: 450.62 (12/11), 456.35 (12/12), 443.37 (12/13), 404.47 (12/14), 413.26 (12/15), 410.29 (12/16 current). That shows a pullback then base-building around the low 400s. Today’s candle has a pronounced lower wick (377→410), suggestive of demand absorption near key retracement levels.
• Medium/short-term (4H/1H via intraday series): • 07:00–08:00 UTC selloff to 377–379, then a V-shaped recovery with a sequence of higher lows (381 → 392 → 396 → 404) and a close near the session highs (410–411). That intraday reversal strengthens a 24h rebound case. • Short-term descending trendline connects 468.9 (12/13) → 443.8 (12/14) → 417.2 (12/15). Break area sits ~415–417; a push through that level would likely accelerate toward 428–435.

2. Key levels: support and resistance

• Supports: • 372–378: 61.8% retracement of the 12/01→12/12 upswing; intraday low printed 377.5 and held. • 390–394: 50% retracement of the same swing and prior pivot-cluster; also near yesterday’s intraday basing zone. • 403–410: 20D SMA (~403) plus today’s 38.2% confluence (~409.2), and daily pivot P (~400.4); this band just held.
• Resistances: • 415–417: descending trendline/near-term neckline; break sustains momentum. • 422–423: classical daily pivot R1 from today (calc below). • 428–435: prior distribution window (Dec 9–10) and measured targets from intraday base; above that, 448–456 and 468–470 are larger swing resistances.

3. Indicator suite

• Moving averages (daily): • 20D SMA ≈ 402.9 (approx. average of last 20 closes). Price 410 > 20D implies near-term support/mean reversion tailwind. • 50D SMA (not precisely computed) remains well above spot given Nov surge; slope down-to-flat. Price < 50D = medium-term headwind.
• RSI (14, daily): • Approx calc from last 14 periods yields RSI ≈ 60. That’s neutral-bullish. The pullback off mid-60s relieved froth without breaking the upturn from the Dec 1 low.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): • Turned positive on the early-Dec rally; histogram has been contracting on this pullback. With today’s intraday reversal, risk of a bullish re-expansion near the zero-line in the next 1–2 sessions.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): • Mid-band near 20SMA 403. Price reclaimed above the mid; bands are moderately wide after the sharp early-Dec ranges but have been narrowing. Room toward upper band (>500) exists; near-term, tagging the upper half-range (420s) is plausible.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based, qualitative): • Price moved back inside channels after a morning pierce; that signals mean-reversion completion and the potential for drift toward channel mid/upper lines (low 420s) in the next 24h if momentum holds.
• Ichimoku (daily, approximations): • Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH 9 + LL 9)/2 ≈ (468.95 + 342.52)/2 ≈ 405.7. Spot 410 > Tenkan: short-term constructive. • Kijun (26) ≈ (HH 26 + LL 26)/2 with HH≈735.8, LL≈307.2 → Kijun ≈ 521.5; spot well below = medium-term bearish overhang. • Price likely below cloud; however, reclaiming Tenkan with a hammer-style candle favors a bounce toward 420s before cloud/Kijun tests become relevant.
• ADX (daily, qualitative): • Strong trendiness peaked in Nov; since then ADX likely eased. Current move looks like a corrective drift with pockets of momentum. Low-to-moderate ADX supports range-trade tactics: buy support, sell resistance.
• ATR (daily): • Recent true ranges ~30–50. Expect 24h move amplitude around ±3–6% from spot if conditions remain similar; that puts 397–435 as a plausible 1-day envelope.
• Stochastic RSI (daily, qualitative): • Likely turning up from mid/low levels after today’s spring; supports a short-term bounce case.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): • Heavy volume on the morning dump with recovery into close suggests demand at lower prices; OBV likely stabilized. MFI would have registered a positive divergence intraday.
• Parabolic SAR (1H): • Likely flipped below price during the recovery sequence (after 10:00–15:00), providing a short-term long bias.
• VWAPs: • Today’s session VWAP likely sub-405 after the deep morning selloff; closing above implies buyer control into the session end. An anchored VWAP from the 12/01 low should sit below price, offering dynamic support on dips.

4. Fibonacci confluences and measured moves

• Swing: 12/01 low 313.69 to 12/12 high 468.95 → Δ=155.26 • 38.2%: 468.95 − 0.382×155.26 ≈ 409.6 (near today’s close) • 50%: ≈ 391.3 • 61.8%: ≈ 372.9 Price tagged between 50% and 61.8% intraday (low 377.5) and reclaimed 38.2% into the close—classic corrective pullback completion with potential for a secondary push to 0.236/0.0 retracements; near-term that corresponds with 422–435.
• Larger swing: Nov top (~736.5) to 12/01 low (342.3) • 38.2% ≈ 492.7; the Dec 11–13 rally failed below this, underscoring that the broader trend is still corrective. Near-term targets should respect this overhead.
• Measured move: Intraday base from 378 to 408 (≈30). Break above 408 projected to 438; conservative into 24h uses 428–432 given overhead resistances/clusters.

5. Classical pivots (12/16 daily, using today’s H/L/C)

• H=413.54, L=377.49, C=410.29 • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ (413.54+377.49+410.29)/3 ≈ 400.44 • R1 = 2P − L ≈ 423.39 • S1 = 2P − H ≈ 387.34 • R2 = P + (H−L) ≈ 436.49 • S2 = P − (H−L) ≈ 364.39 Implication: With price closing above P and below R1, the path-of-least-resistance is a test of R1 (~423) next, provided 400–406 holds on any overnight dip.

6. Pattern diagnostics

• Candlesticks: Today’s daily candle resembles a hammer (long lower shadow, small real body), appearing at a Fibonacci cluster (50–61.8% intraday test, reclaim of 38.2% on close). Follow-through typically targets prior minor swing levels (415–417 trendline, then pivot R1 423).
• Channel/flag: The decline from 468 to 404 looks like a descending channel/flag against the early-Dec advance. The intraday spring to 377 likely tagged the lower channel boundary; a drift toward the channel midpoint (low 420s) within 24h is consistent.
• Wyckoff lens: The morning breakdown under the 389–403 shelf, immediate recovery, and close near the top of the intraday range reads as a Spring + Test. The next 24h often produces a Sign of Strength into the first resistance shelf (422–428).
• Elliott context (heuristic): 5-wave up off 12/01, then ABC down completing around today’s low C ~377. A new impulse sequence could begin; wave-1 targets 0.236–0.382 retrace of the ABC leg, aligning with 422–432.

7. Volume and volatility context

• Volume spiked during the morning drop (07:00–10:00), then tapered as price recovered—typical capitulation + absorption. Daily volumes over the last week are lower than the early-Dec surge, consistent with a consolidation environment where mean reversion edges trend following.
• ATR contraction from early December’s extremes suggests more orderly ranges; a 4–6% 24h move is realistic.

8. What could invalidate

• A decisive break and hourly close below 400–403 (20D SMA / mid-band) reopens 391 (50% retrace) and 387 (S1).
• Loss of 387 with momentum brings 372–378 (61.8% retracement) back into play; under 372 would negate the rebound thesis and reassert the larger downtrend immediately.

9. Trade plan (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy dips into 406–408 with clear invalidation below 400–403 zone.
• Trigger/confirmation: Momentum through 415–417 (descending trendline/neckline).
• Targets: First at 422–423 (R1), extension 428–432 if momentum persists.
• Risk framing (for context): Stop region 397–400 provides a 2:1–3:1 profile to 428–432 from a 407–408 entry.

Conclusion The confluence of a daily hammer at the 38.2% retracement, intraday spring and higher lows, reclaim of the 20D/Tenkan and session VWAP, and alignment with classical pivot R1 favors a 24-hour rebound toward 422–432. While the medium-term trend headwinds remain (below Kijun/50D), the immediate setup skews modestly bullish with defined downside. Plan: Buy on a minor pullback; target the 428 area within the next session, with awareness that 415–417 is the key gate to clear.