Zcash at the ledge: sell the bounce into $388–$392 for a drive toward the mid-$350s

Executive summary and setup

• Context: ZEC staged an explosive rally from late September ($50) to mid-November ($735), followed by a steady distribution and a multi-week downtrend. Since the Dec 1–3 capitulation zone (~$313–$342), price produced a lower-high recovery to $456 on Dec 12 and has since rolled over. Current price is $378.52, sitting below the 20-day mean and pressing a local support shelf ($376–$381). Short-term momentum and market structure favor a continuation lower over the next 24 hours, with bounces likely to be sold.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily (swing): Lower highs since mid-November and lower lows since late November form a clear downtrend channel. The post-bounce lower high at $456 (Dec 12) sits well below the earlier resistance cluster ($519–$575), reinforcing distribution. The current pullback is probing the Dec 16–17 demand band ($376–$390). A break and daily close below ~$375 opens the path toward $360 and then $345–$350.
• 4H: A descending channel from Dec 12 is intact. Each attempt to reclaim the 4H midline fails near prior supply ($404–$410), showing seller control. Volatility compressions resolve downward.
• 1H/intraday: A sequence of lower highs from ~$409 to ~$400 to ~$394 to ~$389 to $384 to $379. The 19:00–21:00 UTC push printed fresh intraday lows ($376.5) with only a tepid bounce ($383.8), then another slip to ~$378.6. Momentum remains negative into the close.

Key levels (confluence of price memory, pivots, fibs)

• Resistance/supply: $388–$392 (intraday sell zone), $400–$405 (SMA20/1H supply), $430–$433 (Dec 9 close), $450–$456, $467–$470.
• Immediate support: $376–$381 (today’s shelf, S1 confluence), then $368–$371 (0.786 retrace of Dec advance), $360–$361 (daily S2 pivot, prior range shelf), $344–$350 (daily S3 cluster and Dec 1–3 demand), and $313–$319 if deep continuation.
• Classical daily floor-pivot map (using 12/16 H/L/C: 414.38/377.11/402.78): P=398.09, R1=419.07, S1=381.80, R2=435.36, S2=360.82, R3=456.33, S3=344.53. Price is trading below P and hugging S1; S2/S3 align with our next supports.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMA20 ≈ $402.5: Price is ~6% below, indicating short-term bearishness and room for mean-reversion bounces that likely fail into $398–$405.
• Daily SMA50 (approx) sits materially above price (upper $430s–$460s) and is flattening-to-lower; SMA20 below SMA50 confirms a bearish short-term regime.
• 1H EMAs (9/21/55 approx): Bearish stack (price < EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA55), consistent with momentum continuation.

Momentum/oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimated mid-to-high 30s to low 40s: bearish but not deeply oversold; plenty of room for continuation to the mid-30s before strong mean-reversion pressure.
• 1H RSI presses into low 30s with persistent bearish regime; intraday bounces likely stall ~40–50 RSI.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and likely sub-zero; histogram negative and widening post-Dec 12 roll, supporting downside follow-through.
• Stochastic: Daily drifting down from midrange; 1H in oversold-land but in a trend regime, so oversold can persist while price bleeds lower.

Volatility/ATR/Band structure

• 14-day ATR is elevated (tens of dollars per day). Expect 24h envelope ~±$40–$60 from any anchor print in current regime.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ $402.5; lower band likely in low $320s–$330s given recent volatility. Price is below the midline, traveling the lower half of the band—trend-following continuation bias.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Kumo projected bearish ahead. Chikou below price; the system remains net-bearish. Tenkan/Kijun likely near $395–$410, matching supply.

Volume/flow

• Distribution signature: Selling pulses on higher relative volume, bounces on lighter volume since Dec 12. ON-balance volume has rolled over from the Dec 12 peak. The developing value area is slipping lower toward mid-$300s.

Fibonacci perspectives

• Dec 1–12 swing: Low $342.26 to high $456.35 spans $114.09.
  • 0.618 retrace: $456.35 − 0.618×114.09 ≈ $385.85 (recently lost; now resistance).
  • 0.786 retrace: ≈ $366.71 (next attractive magnet and confluence with prior micro structure).
  • 0.886 retrace: ≈ $355.25 (aligns with S2/S3 cluster and prior shelves). These levels frame our profit targets.
• Nov macro swing: High ~$736 to early-Dec low ~$313–$342. Rejection below the 0.382–0.5 retrace band ($475–$525) in mid-December validates the larger corrective structure.

Harmonic/Elliott pattern read

• Post-parabolic ABC correction likely ongoing: A down into late Nov, B into Dec 12 ($456), now C down likely unfolding. Minor wave targets for C often meet 1.0–1.272 of A or retrace 78.6–88.6% of the prior advance; that supports $366–$355 in the next leg.

ADX/trend strength

• 1H ADX likely >25 with -DI over +DI, indicating a live downtrend. Daily ADX rising off lows, consistent with trend re-acceleration after the mid-December failed bounce.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel/flag from Dec 12 with multiple clean rejections at the channel midline; measured move from the latest flag (~$25–$30 height) projects toward $355–$360 from the ~$385 breakdown zone.
• Candlesticks: Repeated long upper wicks on intraday rallies and full-bodied red hours during sell pulses—supply dominance.

Probabilistic 24h outlook (qualitative)

• Bearish continuation with intraday bounces: Initial relief rallies likely capped into $388–$392 and $400–$405; downside explorations toward $366–$361 (S2, 0.786 fib) are favored, with overshoots to $352–$355 possible on momentum expansion. A squeeze above ~$405 would be needed to threaten the short bias over the next session.

Trade plan logic (short bias)

• Rationale for short: Negative structure across daily and intraday, price under the 20-day mean, failure at 0.618 retrace ($386), and confluence of pivot S1 around $382 with next magnet at S2 $361. Selling strength into $388–$392 optimizes entry at a local supply pocket and aligns with mean-reversion-to-trend principles.
• Optimal open: Place a limit sell in the $388s (prior intraday supply, close to 0.618 retrace of Dec advance), which also sits under the daily pivot (P≈$398) and under the $400–$405 rejection zone; this captures better R:R than chasing $378 and anticipates a typical bear-market bounce of ~1–2% before continuation.
• Target selection: First target $360–$361 (S2/past shelf) has high hit probability within 24h; extended target $355–$356 (0.886 retrace/flag measured move). For a single TP, $358 offers a realistic balance between probability and reward.
• Risk note (not part of requested fields): A protective stop would sit above $405–$410 (SMA20/1H supply), invalidating near-term bearish momentum and risking a squeeze toward $430.

What would invalidate

• A sustained reclaim and hourly close above $405, then a higher low and daily close back above the 20-day SMA (~$402–$405) would weaken the short and put $430–$450 back in play.

Bottom line

• Bias: Sell strength. Expect a minor intraday bounce into $388–$392 that fades toward $366–$361, with tails possible to $352–$355. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours remains down unless $405 is reclaimed with authority.