Zcash coils at the 20‑day pivot: dip-buy setup toward 405–410 in the next 24 hours

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis (using only the supplied chart data)

1. Market context and regime identification

• Character: ZEC experienced a parabolic advance into mid-November (peaks 650–735), then a sharp mean-reversion through late November/early December to the 313–342 area, followed by a bounce to mid-450s and a subsequent pullback. Currently trading 396.27, sitting near multi-tool equilibrium levels.
• Regime: Volatile mean-reverting range with a mild bullish tilt on intraday timeframes but still corrective vs. early-December swing highs. Liquidity and amplitude have compressed vs. November but remain elevated.

2. Daily trend, moving averages, and mean reversion

• 5D SMA (approx): ~408.1. Price (396) is below the 5D, indicating recent short-term pressure.
• 10D SMA (approx): ~419.0. Price below the 10D; short-term trend still corrective from the 12/11–12/12 highs.
• 20D SMA (approx from last 20 daily closes): ~396.8. Price is essentially at the 20D mean; this is a classic balance point.
• 50D trend: After the early-Nov surge, the 50D is likely still above spot (gradually rolling over). This places price below the intermediate trend, but the slope is flattening.
• Interpretation: Location at the 20D with price under 5D/10D suggests we are in a mean-reversion coil; price often oscillates around the 20D while awaiting a catalyst. The 20D acts as an intraday magnet.

3. Daily momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (qualitative): Mid-range (~45–50) after the pullback to 376 then bounce. Not overbought/oversold, supports range trading.
• MACD daily (qualitative): The histogram has likely been contracting after several red sessions; signal lines near the zero line. This favors chop with potential for a mild bullish cross if price holds above ~390–396.
• Stochastic daily: Recovering from mid-levels; still room higher.
• Takeaway: Neutral-to-slightly positive momentum if price can hold above the 20D.

4. Daily volatility and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: With 20D SMA near 397 and recent closes 313–456 in the lookback, bands are wide; spot is near the mid-band. This positioning aligns with a balanced state—breaks from here tend to travel to the 38.2% retrace (~407) or 50% (~388) quickly.
• ATR(14) daily (qualitative): Elevated vs. equities; roughly 45–55. Expect 24h range potential of ~30–60 points in the absence of a shock.

5. Key daily levels: S/R mapping and confluence

• Supports:
  • 388–389: 50% retracement of the 12/02 (307.2) to 12/11 (468.8) swing is ~388.0; also near daily pivot P (see below) to be tested from above.
  • 373–377: 12/17 low ~373.1 and close 376.6; key swing shelf and 61.8% retracement area (~369–373 zone).
  • 342–343: 12/01–12/07 cluster; deeper mean reversion if range breaks lower.
• Resistances:
  • 405–408: 38.2% retrace (~407.0) and recent intraday failure band; first upside test.
  • 413–415: 12/15 reaction high.
  • 432–433: Prior cap on 12/09–12/10.
  • 450–456: 12/11–12/12 highs.

6. Classical floor pivots from 12/17 H/L/C (H=408.96, L=373.12, C=376.56)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = 386.21
• R1 ≈ 399.31
• S1 ≈ 363.47
• R2 ≈ 422.05
• S2 ≈ 350.38
• R3 ≈ 435.14
• Current spot 396.27 sits above P (386.21) but below R1 (399.31). This is a classic range-within-pivot state; R1 has been capping intraday pushes around 400.

7. Fibonacci structure of the December swing

• Using 12/02 low ~307.23 and 12/11 high ~468.78:
  • 23.6%: ~430.6 (a known supply shelf; price stalled ~432–433 on 12/09–10)
  • 38.2%: ~407.0 (current near-term ceiling)
  • 50%: ~388.0 (active magnet, aligns with pivot P)
  • 61.8%: ~369.0 (confluent with 12/17 low area ~373)
• Interpretation: Price oscillates between the 38.2% and 50% bands (407 vs. 388). A break above 407 unlocks 413–422. A loss of 388 exposes 382 then 373 and potentially 369.

8. 1-hour intraday structure and momentum (12/18 session)

• Range: 373.6 (low) to 403.4 (high). Multiple failures in the 401–403 band; dips have been bought near 383–390.
• VWAP (session, qualitative): Centered near 395–396; price is oscillating around VWAP, confirming balance.
• RSI(14) hourly: Mid-zone; recovering from earlier sub-40 prints; currently ~48–55 range—room to push to 60s on a test of 401–408.
• MACD hourly: Turned up during 12:00–13:00 rally toward 403, then flattened; poised for another attempt higher if 392–395 holds.
• Structure: Higher intraday lows post-19:00 (383 → 384 → ~392) and lower highs (403 → 401). This is a compressing triangle within the day, often resolving into the US evening/Asia open window; confluence suggests a mild topside resolution if 392–395 is defended.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative, daily and hourly)

• Daily: Spot around the likely Kijun/20D mean area; cloud likely thick from prior volatility. Sideways equilibrium.
• Hourly: Price is hovering around a thin cloud; Tenkan and Kijun have converged. A push above 401–403 with a bullish Tenkan>Kijun cross would typically target 407–413 quickly; a close back below 392 would argue for a cloud slip toward 388–389 and possibly 383–386.

10. Bollinger Bands (1h) and squeeze dynamics

• Hourly bands have tightened relative to the morning expansion; bandwidth contraction near the 396 handle suggests an imminent 8–16 point move. With the daily mid-band at ~397 and multiple rejections near 401–403, a band expansion through 400 could test 405–408; a failure through 392 risks 388–389 first, with optionality to 383–386 on momentum follow-through.

11. Wyckoff read and volume profile (qualitative)

• After the early-December rally, ZEC retraced to test demand (373–377) and bounced into the 395–403 value area. The subsequent low-volume pullbacks toward 392–395 followed by responsive buying indicate absorption. This looks like a re-accumulation range within a larger corrective context.
• Value and POC: Intraday value clustered 394–400; point of control likely ~396–397. Expect mean reversion into this zone on spikes.

12. Candlestick context

• Daily bars since 12/14 show upper and lower wicks with closes around 404, 413, 403, 377, now 396 intraday—evidence of two-sided participation and indecision. Yesterday’s long lower tail into 373 with a close at 377 followed by today’s higher intraday lows leans slightly bullish.

13. Elliott wave (lightweight, heuristic)

• From 12/02 low to 12/11 high completed a 5-wave impulse; the descent into 12/17 appears a 3-wave (A-B-C) corrective ending near the 61.8% zone. Today’s action may be the start of a minor i–ii advance within a developing wave (1) or (A) higher toward 407–413.

14. Correlation and risk overlay (qualitative)

• Crypto beta is typically elevated. Without external shocks, range trading dominates. Elevated ATR implies intraday risk management is key.

15. Synthesis and 24-hour path probabilities

• Base case (55%): Hold 392–395 on retests, then rotate up through 399–401. A 1h close above 401–403 targets 405–408 first, then 413. Expected settlement in 402–410 zone.
• Pullback case (30%): Early fade from 399–401 toward the 388–390 magnet (50% fib and pivot P). Responsive buyers likely defend 386–390; bounce back to ~398.
• Bear extension/tail (15%): A decisive loss of 386 (hourly close) opens 382 then 373–376; if 373 breaks impulsively, 369 (61.8% fib) and even 363 (S1) can print, though this requires momentum expansion.

16. Trade plan logic (using the confluence above)

• Bias: Buy dips into 386–391 support where 50% fib (~388) and daily pivot P (~386.2) cluster; target the 38.2% fib/overhead supply at 405–408 with extension to 413 if momentum confirms.
• Rationale: Price is sitting on the 20D mean with intraday higher lows, neutral RSI, tightening hourly bands, and R1 near 399 suggesting that a close above 400 should trigger a measured push into 405–408. Dip-buys near P provide the best asymmetry.
• Risk management (advisory): A protective stop conceptually belongs below 372.9 (beneath 12/17 swing and 61.8% band); optional tighter risk below 382.5 if tactically scalping. Take-profit staged into 405–410 first, 413 second.

Outlook for the next 24 hours

• Expected range: 386–413 (with an upper tail to ~422 if a breakout trend day emerges; lower tail risk to 383–376 on failure).
• Directional call: Mildly bullish, range-to-breakout probability skewed to the upside as long as 386–390 holds on hourly closes.

Final conclusion

• Decision: Buy (Long position) on a dip to the 389–390 area, aiming for a rotation to 405–410; optional extension to 413 if breakout conditions appear. This aligns with pivot/fib confluence and the current intraday structure.