Zcash coiled at support: shallow pullback sets up a run toward 461 within 24 hours

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical debrief for Zcash (ZEC)

1. Market context and current state

• Instrument: ZEC/USD
• Current price: 438.91 (latest hourly close)
• Recent path: Parabolic advance into early–mid Nov (peak ~736.5 on 2025-11-07), followed by a sustained pullback through Dec 1 low ~313.7, then choppy recovery in December with a fresh higher low on 2025-12-17 at 376.56 and a 3-day impulse to 447.03 on 12-20. Today (12-21) consolidated lower to 438.9.
• Regime: Long-term up vs Sep–Oct levels; intermediate trend still corrective since mid-Nov; short-term (since 12-17) constructive higher-low structure and stabilization above the 20D mean.

2. Structure and levels (daily)

• Key swing points: High 736.51 (11-07), secondary high 735.77 (11-16), major corrective low 313.69 (12-01), recent swing low 376.56 (12-17), recent swing high 447.03 (12-20).
• Support: 430–432 (today’s intraday shelf and 0.236 retrace of 12-17→12-20 leg), 420 (S2 pivot, near 0.382 retrace of that leg), 404–405 (12-14 close and cluster), 387.7 (12-18 close), 376.6 (12-17 higher low), 342–343 (Dec 3–7 base), 313.7 (Dec 1 capitulation).
• Resistance: 449–455 (hourly R1 cluster and recent highs), 461 (classic R2 pivot and 0.382 retracement of the larger 11-16 high → 12-01 low), 468–472 (12-11/12 highs; neckline area on intraday), 480–501 (50% retrace band of Nov correction and daily Kijun proxy), 533–548 (0.618 retrace of Nov dump / cloud top region).

3. Moving averages and trend filters (estimated)

• 20D SMA ≈ 410–420: Price is above, indicating near-term recovery momentum and mean reversion tailwind.
• 50D SMA ≈ 520–560: Price is below, confirming the intermediate downtrend is not fully repaired; this MA will act as overhead supply on rallies.
• 200D SMA (rough) ≈ 220–280 (given pre-Nov prices): Price is well above, longer-term uptrend intact. Conclusion: Short-term bullish above 20D, medium-term still corrective below 50D; mixed but improving setup.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): Mid-40s to low-50s after bouncing from oversold on 12-17; neutral-bullish with room to push to 55–60 on a breakout to 460–468.
• Hourly RSI: Spent time mid-40s; slight bullish divergence vs the higher intraday low near 431–433 and stable OBV, suggesting seller momentum is waning as price holds S1.
• Stochastic (hourly): Recycled from oversold post-Europe session; enough headroom to cycle higher if 430–432 holds.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Turned up post 12-17; histogram positive but flattening with today’s consolidation. A push above 449–452 should re-expand the histogram and slope; a break below 430 would stall it.
• Hourly MACD: Curling up from zero-line after a shallow pullback; constructive if price reclaims 445–447 and holds.

6. Volatility and expected range

• 14D ATR (approx): ~40–50. Expected 24h range ±6–10% from 439 implies 413–483. This brackets the S2/R3 pivot set (≈420/470), reinforcing those as logical extremes.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, 2σ): Mid-band ~20D SMA ~415; bandwidth still wide from prior volatility. Current price sits between mid and upper band—neutral-to-slightly positive. Mean reversion favors support buys over chasing into band extremes.

7. Fibonacci map

• Major leg (11-16 high 698.43 → 12-01 low 313.69): Retrace levels from the low: 0.382 ≈ 460.98, 0.5 ≈ 506, 0.618 ≈ 547. Resistance from 0.382 around 461 has repeatedly mattered (12-11/12). Today’s R2 pivot ≈ 460.76 aligns perfectly.
• Minor leg (12-17 low 376.56 → 12-20 high 447.03): 0.236 ≈ 430.3, 0.382 ≈ 419.1, 0.5 ≈ 410.8, 0.618 ≈ 402.5. Today’s low probed 430–432 (holding the shallow 23.6% fib) and bounced; that character is typical of a strong trend retracement rather than trend failure. Interpretation: Holding 430 keeps the post-12/17 impulse intact with room to extend toward 461. A deeper test to 420–421 would still be corrective but delay the break.

8. Pivot points (12-21 session, classic)

• H/L/C: 451.13 / 430.57 / 438.91
• P = 440.20; R1 = 449.84; S1 = 429.28; R2 = 460.76; S2 = 419.64; R3 = 470.40; S3 = 409.0 Confluence: R2 ≈ 460.8 (also 0.382 of the major leg); S1 ≈ 429.3 (near the 0.236 retrace of the minor leg). These should anchor the next 24h battles.

9. VWAP and intraday balance

• Today’s intraday profile clustered around 440–444 with spikes toward 448 and tests down to 431–433. Approx daily VWAP sits near 441–442. Current price 438.9 is slightly below VWAP, but the profile is balanced and not trending bearish; reclaiming VWAP (441–442) often precedes tests of R1 (449–450) in balanced days following shallow pullbacks.

10. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ 425–430; Kijun (26) ≈ 490–505; Price above Tenkan but below Kijun; Cloud ahead likely thick around 500–550. Typical bullish repair sequence is: hold above Tenkan, reclaim Kijun on momentum push, then test cloud. Today’s hold above Tenkan is a positive early-stage signal.

11. Volume/OBV/Participation

• Volume rising off the 12-17 low into 12-19, then slightly tapering into 12-20/12-21 as price consolidates in a tight band (healthy digestion). OBV is stabilizing-to-rising—accumulation bias. No distribution signature near lows.

12. Price patterns

• Daily: Emerging bull flag/pennant after a 3-session thrust (12-17 to 12-20). Flags that retrace only ~23.6% (430 area) often resolve higher.
• Hourly: Nascent inverse H&S setup: L shoulder ~437–439 (10–11h), head 431–433 (13–16h), R shoulder ~434–436 (17–18h), neckline 447–449. A decisive break and hold above 449 sets a measured move toward ~461–468.
• Trendline: Descending supply from mid-Nov crosses 460–468 region—reinforces that zone as the breakout test.

13. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 12-17 low: Impulsive leg to 12-20 high (wave 1/A), shallow retrace today (wave 2/B) holding 23.6%. If wave 3/C unfolds, a typical 1.0–1.272 extension projects 447 + (447-376) ≈ 518 to ~536 over multiple sessions; for the next 24h, the practical waypoint is prior fib/pivot confluence at 461 and possibly a wick toward 468 if momentum expands.

14. Scenario analysis, probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range-to-up resolution. Hold 430–432 on dips, reclaim VWAP 441–442, push through 447–450, tag R2/0.382 major fib at 460–462. Sellers fade there. Close near 455–460.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong risk-on session. Quick reclaim of 445–447, accelerated break >450 with momentum. Test 461, overshoot to 468–470 (R3) before consolidating. Close 462–468.
• Bear risk (20%): Lose 430 decisively, rotate to S2 419–421 (0.382 of minor leg). Buyers attempt defense and push back to 430–435 by close. Only on failure below 419 would 410–412 open up; odds lower within 24h given current structure.

15. Synthesis and trade bias

• Confluence of supports at 430–432 (minor 23.6% fib + S1 pivot + Tenkan region + intraday shelf) held today; momentum indicators are neutral-bullish; volume signature shows digestion not distribution; and the bull flag pattern remains valid. Overhead resistance is well-defined at 449–455 and 460–462. Given the shallow retracement and supportive breadth, the path of least resistance over the next 24h leans toward a test of 449–455 and, if cleared, 460–462.
• Therefore, a buy-the-dip entry near 432–433 offers favorable reward to the 460–462 target within the ATR envelope, while keeping logical invalidation below ~420 (notional stop in risk plan).

16. Risk management notes (contextual)

• Optimal stop (not part of the requested output): 421–422 (just below S2/past demand). R:R from 432→461 TP is ~1:2 if using a ~10–12 point stop; tighter stops risk noise in a high-beta coin.
• Alternate trigger if no dip: Breakout buy above 450 with momentum confirmation; revised target 468; but primary plan favors dip entry at support where confluence is strongest.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips.
• Rationale: Shallow 23.6% pullback held, constructive multi-indicator alignment, strong pivot/fib confluence, improving short-term momentum, and ATR-compatible upside toward 461 within 24h.
• Expected move: 430–462 with upside skew toward 461; spike risk to 468 if momentum accelerates.