ZEC coils beneath 450: ascending triangle primed for a stop-run breakout toward 468

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ZEC/USD (as of 2025-12-26 22:00 UTC)

1. Market structure and price context (Daily)

• Regime shift and context: ZEC exploded from ~56 at end-September to a parabolic peak >700 in mid-November, followed by a sharp corrective phase into mid-December. Since the Dec 17 capitulation close at 376.56, price has been constructing a base above 400 with higher lows and repeated attempts to reclaim the 450 area. This is typical post-blowoff re-accumulation behavior when sellers exhaust and value migrates higher in steps.
• Key swing points:
  • Major swing high: Nov 16 close 698.43 (intraday >735)
  • Major corrective low: Dec 17 close 376.56 (intraday 373.12)
  • Recent basing lows: 402.78 (Dec 16), 376.56 (Dec 17), 387.71 (Dec 18), 416.87 (Dec 23)
  • Recent resistance band: 448–453 (neckline area), then 468–470, and 480–490
• Pattern: An emerging ascending triangle/inverse H&S-like structure:
  • Left shoulder cluster around 404–405 (Dec 10/14), head at 373–377 (Dec 17), right shoulder 413–417 (Dec 15/23). The neckline sits in the 448–450 zone. Dec 24 closed 448.53 (a marginal neckline reclaim), Dec 25 pulled back to 437.92, and today we are pressing 446–447 again. Multiple taps of ~448 with rising reaction lows constitute an ascending triangle. Measured move from base (450 − 432 ≈ 18) projects to ~468 on breakout.

2. Intraday structure (Hourly, last 24–36 hours)

• Range compression and grind up: Price has oscillated in a tight 442–447 band with a subtle sequence of higher lows since 17:00–20:00 UTC. The micro-top is 447.91; repeated attempts above 446.5–447 without supply expansion suggest overhead liquidity building just above 448–450.
• Price/volume behavior: Lower realized volatility and decreasing volume into resistance often precede a range expansion move. Stop clusters likely rest above 450; a trigger through 450.5–451 could accelerate to 455–458 first, then 465–469.

3. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~416.5. Price (446.8) trades above the 20DMA, flipping near-term bias bullish.
• Short MAs (8–12 EMA, est.): Price is above short EMAs following the rally off 416–432, indicating constructive momentum. The slope of short MAs is positive.
• 50/100-day MAs (directional inference): After November’s spike, medium-term MAs are likely flattening/downsloping above current price; reclaiming 468–490 would start to neutralize the medium-term downtrend. Near-term, the 20DMA serves as active dynamic support.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (14D, est.): Mid-50s. After the mid-Dec oversold trough, RSI reclaimed the midline and is stabilizing above 50. This favors upside follow-through in the absence of bearish divergence.
• RSI (hourly): Hovering 55–60 with no clear bearish divergence at the local highs; suggests room to push into 450–455 before momentum fatigue.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram near zero after a shallow bullish turn from Dec 18–20; with price consolidating above the 20DMA, a MACD signal-line cross above zero is plausible if 450–455 breaks.
• MACD (hourly): Slightly positive and flattening, poised to expand with a trigger.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2 Daily, est.): Mid-band ~416.5; upper ~495–500; lower ~335–340 (approx). Price is riding between mid and upper band with bands starting to compress relative to early December. A squeeze breakout above 450 typically seeks the upper band trajectory; first waypoint 468–475 is consistent with this.
• ATR (14D, est.): ~40–45. A 1×ATR move from 447 projects to ~487 max on a strong session; a conservative 0.5–0.7×ATR projects 465–475, aligning with the triangle objective.

6. Fibonacci and confluence levels

• Fib retrace of the Nov top to Dec trough (735 to 376):
  • 38.2% ≈ 499
  • 50% ≈ 556
  • 61.8% ≈ 613 Price remains below 38.2%. Near-term rallies toward 468 are still corrective within this larger fib map; however, reclaiming the 38.2% (near 499–500) would be a pivotal regime upgrade.
• Fib retrace of the Oct-Nov impulse (342 to 735): 78.6% ~426; 61.8% ~492. Current price ~447 is above the 78.6% retrace support and below the 61.8% resistance, making 426–432 a strong demand shelf and 490–500 a strong supply shelf. Our 468–470 objective sits neatly between them.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative, daily)

• With price over the Tenkan (~435–440) and near/just under the Kijun (~455–460 est.), a bullish Tenkan > Kijun state is developing on lower timeframes. A decisive close > Kijun often ushers tests into/above the cloud. The 448–455 zone is the immediate battle; above it, momentum players typically add.

8. Market profile/VWAP and liquidity considerations

• While full volume profile isn’t provided, the repeated acceptance around 440–445 indicates a developing Point of Control in that region. Intraday VWAP likely sits around mid-443–445 given the session’s prints; price holding above VWAP late-session is supportive. The liquidity pocket above 450 appears ripe for a stop-run.

9. Candle diagnostics

• Daily: Dec 24 was a wide-range bullish day closing near the highs; Dec 25 was a smaller corrective day that did not negate Dec 24. Today is an inside-to-up type continuation attempt, testing the neckline with tight hourly spreads—classic coil behavior before expansion.
• Hourly: Multiple small-bodied candles near resistance—supply absorption with no aggressive rejection wicks. The failure of bears to push below 441–442 on several attempts is constructive.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Phase B/C re-accumulation feel: Sign of Strength on Dec 19, then back-and-fill into Dec 23 (Secondary Test), followed by a higher-low structure and a test of resistance (potential LPS/backup). A push through 450–455 would be a Sign of Strength (SOS) with target to the next resistance block 468–475.

11. Elliott wave framing (near-term)

• From the Dec 17 bottom, a 5-wave micro impulse into Dec 20, then a choppy wave 2 corrective flat/triangle into Dec 23, appears plausible. Current grind could be the start of wave 3 of a smaller degree, with a 1.0–1.272 extension of the prior impulse projecting 462–472. This is consistent with our triangle measured move and ATR band.

12. Gann/Angles (qualitative)

• The recovery slope from Dec 17 is shallow but persistent. Price is respecting a 1x1-like angle off the low (approx 10–12 pts per day), implying tests toward 455–460 within one session if angle is maintained.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• Bearish scenario: A failure at 448–450 followed by a decisive break below 441.5 opens a quick slide to 436, then 432. Below 432, demand weakens materially and 418–420/405–408 reopen.
• Given ATR, a wick into 439–441 is feasible even in a bullish outcome; therefore, entries should account for minor shakeouts. Invalidation of the short-term bullish thesis sits below 431.5 daily acceptance.

14. 24-hour directional forecast

• Base case (55–60%): Breakout through 450–451 triggers stops, extension to 455–458, consolidation pullback 452–454, second leg into 465–469. Close in 460–468 band.
• Alt case (25–30%): Brief fake-out to 451–452 then shakeout to 439–442, buyers defend VWAP/MA cluster, and price still ends 24h higher in 455–462.
• Bear case (10–15%): Rejection at 448 with expansion lower through 441.5; daily acceptance <432 would flip the bias down toward 418–420. Low probability barring a correlated market risk-off shock.

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Edge rests with the bulls: Above the 20DMA, building higher lows, compressing into a well-defined 448–450 neckline, constructive hourly momentum, and a clean measured move aligning with ATR/nearby resistance make a tactical long favorable.
• Optimal execution: Two viable tactics:
  1. Breakout buy-stop above 450.6 to capture momentum and avoid chop; target 466–469.
  2. Limit buy on minor dip into 445–446 with tight risk below 441.5, targeting the same 466–469 area.
• Given current prints at 446.8 and frequent retests of 446, a limit entry around 446.0 optimizes reward-to-risk while maintaining execution probability.
• Risk management (not part of requested output fields but critical): Suggested stop region 435.5–436.5 (below recent swing shelf and under hourly structure). That frames a ~10–11 point risk for a ~20–23 point target (near 1.9–2.2 R), acceptable in a breakout continuation context.

Conclusion: Buy (Long). Expect a 24h push toward 465–469, with interim pauses at 452–455 and 458–462. Invalidation below 432 on a daily basis.