Zcash ignites: Buy the dip toward 508 for a run at the 546–548 supply wall

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation after a shallow pullback. Expect a dip toward 505–510 to be bought, then a push into 528–548 with supply likely capping the first attempt near 546–548.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 508–509 with a take‑profit into the 545–550 resistance cluster. If momentum accelerates without a dip, a momentum add-on through 526–528 is viable, but the primary plan is the pullback entry.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure and levels

• Higher time frame (daily): After peaking mid‑Nov (~735.8), ZEC retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci (~317.8) on Dec 2 and based through mid‑Dec (roughly 400–450). We now have a clear sequence of higher lows (Dec 17: 376.6 → Dec 22: 431.7 → Dec 26: 447.8) and a higher high today (~522.7). Structure has flipped bullish.
• Intermediate swing levels (daily): • Macro Fibonacci from Sep 29 low 61.05 to Nov 16 high 735.77:
  • 23.6%: 576.5 (next major resistance)
  • 38.2%: 478.0 (now reclaimed → support)
  • 50%: 398.4 (major support zone from the base)
  • 61.8%: 317.8 (cycle key low area) • Legacy supply/resistance clusters: 522–528 (today’s H + 11/26 close 526.5), 546–548 (11/27 H 546.7), 572–576 (fib 23.6% + round), 600–614 (late Nov congestion), 655–680 (range cap). • Supports: 508–510 (today’s pullback and hour close 508.5), 500 round, 492–495 (hourly micro shelf), 478 fib (strong), 468–470 (pre‑breakout shelf), 455–458 (late‑Dec resistance turned support), 448–450.
• Intraday (hourly): Trend day: breakout from 468–470 base; range 445.9–522.7. Buyers defended ~508.5 on the first pullback, consistent with a shallow retracement.

2. Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages (daily; approximations from closes): • SMA20 ≈ 421.8; price 514.8 is well above → short‑term uptrend intact. • EMA9/EMA21 trending up; price > EMA9 > EMA21 (bullish stack). 9‑day EMA likely high‑430s/low‑440s, confirming strong momentum. • SMA50 likely ~490–510 (given the Nov highs and Dec lows); price at/just above → reclaim suggests regime shift back to bullish.
• Moving averages (hourly): Price above 20/50 EMA; bullish alignment with rising slope; pullbacks to the hourly 20EMA (~508–511) are being bought.
• RSI (14): • Daily: Rising from mid‑40s to mid‑60s; today’s 15% push likely lifts RSI to ~62–68 (bullish but not extreme). Room exists before classic overbought (>70) on daily. • Hourly: Spiked into overbought during the 09:00–11:00 UTC impulse, then reset on the 20:00 pullback to the 40–50 band and curled up again—constructive for another push.
• MACD: • Daily: Bullish crossover with expanding histogram after breaking above 450s; momentum breadth improving. • Hourly: Histogram peaked late morning, contracted into the afternoon pullback, now turning up again—suggests continuation attempt.

3. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): With SMA20 ~422 and elevated recent volatility, upper band likely ~515–525. Price is riding the upper band—typical of early trend resumption. Riding the band can persist; mean reversion risk exists, but shallow dips are favored buys while the lower band is far below.
• Bollinger (hourly): After a squeeze and breakout, bands expanded; price mean‑reverted from the outer band back toward the mid‑band (~509–511) and bounced—classic continuation behavior.
• ATR (daily): Recent true ranges ~60–80. Today’s 76.5 range aligns. Expect ±30–45 around the mean for the next session—enough room to probe 528–548 after a 505–510 dip.

4. Fibonacci confluence

• Macro swing (61.05 → 735.77): Reclaim of 38.2% (478) is significant; next fib magnet is 23.6% at 576.5. First major supply sits at 546–548 before fib 23.6%.
• Intraday swing (today 445.9 → 522.7): • 23.6%: ~504.3 (first‑buy zone; we bounced at 508.5 once). • 38.2%: ~493.2 (secondary dip‑buy if liquidity sweeps 500). • 50%: ~484.1 (deeper, less likely if trend persists within next 24h). Current behavior—stall near 522, pullback near the 23.6%—signals strong bulls. A second test of 504–509 is the highest‑odds entry.

5. Market profile, order flow, volume

• Breakout day profile: Single prints above ~500 with a shifting higher value area. The session’s volume thrust at 09:00–11:00 confirmed initiative buying. Pullback volumes lighter into 20:00–21:00 suggest sellers are reactive, not dominant.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): Rising; no material distribution signatures on the first pullback. Healthy rotation.
• Liquidity: Weekend conditions can exaggerate wicks; expect stop sweeps into 505–508 and perhaps 500. The 500 figure is a magnet and a defense line.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above the Cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Span A rising; Chikou clear of price. This is a textbook bullish regime. A Tenkan retest near high‑440s/low‑450s would be a buy on deeper dips, but the near‑term momentum is stronger than that implies.

7. Wyckoff read

• Accumulation in the 430–450 range across Dec with a spring/weakness test near 411 on Dec 23, followed by Sign of Strength (SOS) through 455–460 on Dec 24/26 and a marked‑up leg today. We are in Phase D into early Phase E. Expect a pause at prior supply (546–548), potentially a brief back‑up (BUEC) before continuation toward 576+ if demand persists.

8. Elliott wave (tactical count)

• From the Dec 17 pivot (~376.6), a 5‑wave advance is plausible: i) 376→448, ii) 448→404–413 pullback, iii) 413→522 impulse (today), iv) a shallow iv pullback (505–509), v) a final push into 540s. This aligns with our path to 546–548 before a larger corrective pause.

9. Classical patterns and pivots

• Breakout from a flat‑top/ascending structure across 447–455 with measured move targets already achieved (470s). The next measured move from the 468–508 bull flag projects roughly to 548–550, confluent with legacy supply.
• Yesterday’s classic pivots (from 12/26) were all surpassed early—trend‑day context. Expect tomorrow’s pivots to migrate higher, making 505–510 the new value support.

10. Risk map for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60–65%): Retest 505–510, then trend continuation to 526–532 and a probe of 542–548. First attempt likely stalls 546–548; consolidation afterward.
• Pullback case (25–30%): Liquidity sweep toward 500 with knee‑jerk buyback; 493–495 holds if tested; recovery to low‑520s.
• Bear flip (10–15%): Acceptance below 492 turns the day into a failed breakout; opens 484 and 478 (38.2% fib) retest. This would likely require a risk‑off tape or sharp BTC drop.

11. Trade construction and execution logic

• Entry logic: Prefer buy‑limit into prior resistance turned support at 508–509 (anchors: hourly mid‑band, 20EMA, earlier pullback close 508.5, intraday 23.6% fib ~504.3 nearby). This maximizes R:R while maintaining a high fill probability.
• Targeting: First target and planned exit into 546–548, the dense supply zone (11/27 high/11/26 close cluster, measured move confluence, round‑number behavior). A secondary extension toward 572–576 (fib 23.6%) is possible but lower probability in 24h unless momentum accelerates broadly.
• Optional invalidation (not required but prudent): Below 492 on an hourly close would negate the immediate trend continuation and favor stepping aside.
• R:R snapshot: Entry ~508.5, target ~548 → +39.5; risk to 492 = −16.5 → R:R ≈ 2.4:1 (attractive for a 24h tactical swing).

12. Indicator‑by‑indicator verdicts (impact on bias)

• Trend MAs (daily/hourly): Bullish → Buy dips.
• RSI/MACD: Bullish, not extreme on daily; hourly reset and curl → Supports continuation.
• Bollinger/ATR: Riding upper band; expect volatility; shallow dips favored → Buy dips with wider stops than usual.
• Fib confluence: 504–509 shallow retrace aligns with structure; 546–548 strong resistance → Target there.
• Ichimoku: Above Cloud with bullish lines → Momentum regime supports longs.
• Wyckoff: SOS and markup phase → Upside path of least resistance.
• Volume/Orderflow: Trend day thrust with lighter pullback volume → Buy continuation.

Forecast (next 24 hours)

• Probable path: Drift/dip into 505–510, then advance to 528–532 and test 542–548. First touch of 546–548 likely rejects modestly. A clean break/hold above 548 would unlock 560–576, but that’s a stretch goal inside 24h.

Bottom line

• Action: Buy (long). Best entry is a pullback fill near 508.5. Take profit into 548 where multi‑factor resistance clusters converge.
• Contingency: If price sprints through 526 without dipping, consider chasing a smaller size above 528 with the same 548 target; if price instead accepts sub‑500, stand aside and reassess at 493/484.

Note: This is a tactical plan for the next 24h window under current volatility; conditions can shift rapidly on weekends and with broader crypto beta swings.