ZEC poised for a fresh leg: defending the 50% retrace, eyeing 548–560 in the next 24 hours

ZEC multi-timeframe technical breakdown (as of 2025-12-28 22:00 UTC)

Snapshot and context

• Instrument: Zcash (ZEC/USD)
• Current price: 526.75
• Today’s intraday range (hourly data): ~511.96 low (06:00) to ~539.69 high (15:00); modest pullback to 526.75 into the close of this hourly set
• Recent regime: Explosive October–November markup to 735.8, sharp November–early December drawdown to ~313–342, followed by a December basing structure and a mid/late-December bullish reversal now pressing into mid-500s.

Price structure and market regime

• Higher time frame structure (daily):
  • Major impulse: 735.8 (Nov 16) to 307–314 (Dec 2) produced a 58% drawdown, then a multi-week base with higher lows culminating in a breakout above the 447–450 neckline area.
  • Higher lows sequence since the December trough: 376.6 (Dec 17) → 387.7 (Dec 18) → 404.5 (Dec 14) → 413.3 (Dec 15) → 431.7 (Dec 22) → 447.8 (Dec 26) → 515.6 (Dec 27 close) → 526.8 (current). Structure is now clearly HH/HL.
  • Key resistances by memory and recent auction: 535–540 (intraday supply from today), 548–552 (local extension/supply shelf), 572–575 (61.8% retrace of the Nov high → Dec low), 603–615 (weekly supply), 655–700 (late-November supply). Key supports: 521–523 (50% retrace confluence / intraday VWAP zone), 505, 490, 471–475 (38.2% retrace), 448–450 (neckline / former range high), 431–433, 404–413.
• Intraday structure (hourly):
  • Today’s drive lifted from ~515–518 to 535–540 before mean reverting back to 526–528 where price is consolidating just above the 50% daily Fibonacci retrace and near intraday VWAP/MA clusters. Momentum cooled without structural damage.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~430–435 (estimate from the last 20 closes). Price is well above, confirming a short-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): mid/high 400s to low 500s given the mix of late-Nov highs and early-Dec lows; price is at/above this zone, suggesting an ongoing transition to intermediate uptrend. Note: dataset spans ~90 sessions, so 200SMA isn’t reliable here.
• EMAs (daily, qualitative): 8/13/21 EMAs are stacked bullishly after the late-December thrust; pullbacks to the 13–21EMA cluster likely sit in low 500s.
• Intraday MAs (hourly, qualitative): Price is above the rising 50/100-hour moving averages; the 200-hour is lower. The 520–528 pocket is the active dynamic support zone.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): After the December rally from 376 to 526, daily RSI has likely shifted into a bull range (mid-40s support to 60–70+). Not yet at an extreme, consistent with further upside potential before a deeper reset.
• RSI (hourly): Spiked into overbought on the 535–540 push, since cooled to the mid-50s, indicating a healthy momentum reset within an uptrend.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross likely occurred in the last week; histogram positive and building, consistent with early-to-mid trend phase after a base.
• Stochastic (daily/hourly): Daily is elevated but can “ride high” in trends; hourly has already cycled down toward neutral, giving scope for another intraday push.

Volatility

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~35. This frames a typical 1-day expected move. From ~526, an ATR up-move targets 560–565; a full down ATR would probe ~490–495.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid-band near the 20SMA (~430). Upper band estimated in the low/mid 570s; price pressed upper band earlier today, pulled back modestly—typical of a trend day with late-session digestion.

Volume and flow

• Volume regime: Heavy participation on upside days (Dec 27 breakout) and lighter on pullbacks—a positive sign. Today’s surge to 535–540 occurred with elevated hourly volume, while the pullback to 526–528 saw volume tapering.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising from mid-December, confirming accumulation. No glaring bearish divergence vs price in the latest upswing.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): Notable high-volume nodes around 447–450 and 490–505. Price acceptance is building around 520–530; a sustained hold above 521–523 (50% fib) can create a new value area higher and invite tests of 548–552 and 572–575.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is above the Cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; lagging span likely through price. This is a classic bullish alignment suggesting trend continuation on dips while the Cloud acts as structural support (far below current price).

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: High 735.8 (Nov 16) to low ~307–314 (Dec 2).
  • 38.2%: ~471
  • 50%: ~521–522
  • 61.8%: ~572
• Current price sits just above the 50% retracement. A sustained reclaim of 50% often begets tests of 61.8% (“golden pocket”)—the 572 area—a critical, likely magnetized target if momentum persists.
• Measured move from inverse head-and-shoulders (see below) points initially into ~517 (achieved), with extensions eyeing ~545–560.

Classical patterns

• Inverse head-and-shoulders (daily): Left shoulder ~404–414 (Dec 14–15), head ~376.6 (Dec 17), right shoulder ~387–405 (Dec 18). Neckline ~447–450. Breakout occurred into Dec 19–24, retested via chop, then a decisive expansion on Dec 27. Measured move (neckline minus head ~70) → 447 + 70 ≈ 517 was tagged. Extensions (1.272–1.618) point toward ~548 and ~560 respectively—both align with visible supply shelves and ATR projections.
• Bull flag / rising channel (intraday): Today’s pullback from 535–540 to 526–528 is constructive digestion above former resistance. A break back over 535 should unlock 548–552.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From the Dec 17 swing low (~376): impulsive Wave 1 to ~448, Wave 2 retrace toward ~404, a strong Wave 3 carried to ~515+, Wave 4 intraday consolidation ~520–528 (today), setting up a Wave 5 that could probe 545–560 before a higher-degree corrective leg. This aligns with the IHS extension and ATR/BB confluence.

ADX/DI (qualitative)

• After weeks of basing, trend strength has re-emerged. DI+ > DI- and ADX rising into/above the mid-20s would be consistent with present tape and the breakout behavior. This supports a buy-the-dip bias while momentum remains constructive.

VWAP and intraday execution

• Today’s session VWAP resides in the 520s–low 530s. Price is oscillating modestly around/above VWAP now, suggesting neutral-to-bullish intraday posture. Buying near VWAP with strength confirmation has favorable expectancy in this regime.

Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation phase concluded through December with a spring (Dec 17 low), SOS (sign of strength) into Dec 24–27, and a successful backup-to-the-creek today (pullback to mid-520s after testing 535–540). The next phase typically targets overhead supply tests (548–552; then 572–575).

Liquidity and orderflow considerations

• Liquidity pockets: Stops likely clustered below 521–523 (50% fib) and 505–510 (late-session swing lows). Overhead liquidity likely around prior intraday highs 535–540 and the round-figure shelves 550/560.
• Weekend/holiday effect: Crypto liquidity can be thinner around year-end weekends. Whipsaws are possible, but thin books also facilitate continuation when price clears micro-structure (i.e., a clean 535 reclaim can accelerate quickly to mid-540s/low-550s).

Confluence map (most relevant)

• Bullish confluences: HH/HL structure; reclaim of 50% daily fib; daily MACD up; RSI bull range; IHS breakout and measured move achieved with scope to extensions; OBV rising; price holding above intraday VWAP and MA clusters; ATR upside points to ~560.
• Headwinds/resistances: 535–540 intraday supply; 548–552 as extension resistance; 572–575 (61.8% retrace) is a strong higher-timeframe selling zone likely to cap first attempts.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Consolidation 522–536 followed by a break toward 545–552. One ATR extension could tag 555–560 if momentum re-ignites post-break.
• Range case (30%): Value builds 520–535, no decisive break; next push deferred to early week. Dips to 521–523 get bought; upside capped at 535–540.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 521–523 (50% fib) invites a slide to 505–510; a deeper flush could test 490–495 (full ATR down). Structure remains intact above 490–495, but long setup would be deferred.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Thesis: Buy-the-dip within a fresh uptrend, using the 50% retracement and intraday VWAP/MA cluster as a launching pad for a push into the 1.272–1.618 IHS extensions and toward the daily 61.8% retrace zone.
• Optimal entry: Staggered/limit entry around 523–526 (near 50% fib 521.5 and VWAP zone). Use strength confirmation (reclaim of 528–530) if executing via momentum.
• Profit target (24h tactical): 558 (aligns with ATR(14) up-move from a 523–525 entry and the 1.618 IHS extension neighborhood). Expect interim reactions at 535–540 and 548–552.
• Invalidation (not an order here, but for risk framing): Sustained acceptance below 521 with hourly closes below 518 weakens the setup; below 505 negates the immediate long timing and risks a revisit of 490s.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains higher while 521–523 holds. Expect an attempt to clear 535–540; if successful, momentum should carry toward 548–552 and potentially 555–560 within the next 24 hours.

Decision: Buy (Long). Open near 523–526 on a dip; target 558 within 24 hours, aware of resistance at 535–540 and 548–552 on the way.