ZEC Relief Rally Rejected at $398: Likely 24h Retest of $376 Support

Market context (multi-timeframe)

Current price: $382.12

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

• Macro trend: ZEC had a strong bull impulse from ~250 (Oct) to a peak zone ~735 (Nov 16), followed by a prolonged distribution → selloff.
• Regime shift: The breakdown accelerated late Nov–early Dec (notably Nov 30 close ~427 → Dec 1 close ~342), signaling a transition from bullish to bearish / mean-reversion regime.
• Recent swing: From Jan 6 close ~502 → Jan 8 low ~382 (capitulation-like day), then Jan 10 close ~376, and now a rebound to ~382.

Conclusion (daily): Price is in a bearish corrective phase after a parabolic top; the last 3–5 sessions show stabilization near a demand zone, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

2) Key levels (Daily S/R + supply/demand)

• Immediate support:
  • $373–$376 (recent daily low/close area; also the hourly base before today’s push)
  • $364 (Jan 10 intraday low)
• Immediate resistance / supply:
  • $388–$393 (multiple hourly failures late session)
  • $397–$405 (today’s spike high ~397.95 + prior daily congestion)
• Major overhead resistance:
  • $417–$423 (Jan 9–Jan 8 region; prior breakdown area)

Implication: Upside is likely capped into 388–405 unless buyers reclaim and hold above ~405.

3) Candlestick & price action read

• Daily candle (Jan 11 so far): Open ~376 → high ~398 → close ~382.
  • This is a rejection from the highs with a notable upper wick (intraday supply visible).
• Sequence: Jan 8 had a very large range (high ~481, low ~382) indicating high volatility + forced selling. Subsequent days are smaller, suggesting post-shock consolidation.

Implication: The market attempted a relief rally to ~398 but failed to hold, increasing probability of a retest lower (support check).

4) Intraday structure (Hourly)

• Trend during the day: Early steady grind up from ~368–379 to a midday peak near ~398.
• Then distribution: From 13:00 onward, price made lower highs and bled to ~382.
• Micro pattern: A rounded top / distribution after the spike; price repeatedly failed to reclaim ~388–393.

Implication (next 24h): Higher likelihood of range-to-down: drift toward $373–$376 first; if that breaks, $364 becomes the magnet.

5) Momentum (proxy analysis via swing behavior)

Even without computing exact RSI/MACD numerically, the structure suggests:

• Momentum improved from Jan 10 → Jan 11 (higher close), but
• The intraday momentum peaked at ~398 and rolled over, a typical sign of bearish divergence risk on lower timeframes after a relief pop.

Implication: Expect mean reversion down after a failed push, unless price reclaims 393/398 quickly.

6) Volatility & “ATR logic”

• Recent daily ranges are large (e.g., Jan 8 range ~99 points). Even the latest day moved ~22 points high-to-low.
• In high-vol regimes, price often retests the origin of the move (today’s move originated around $376–$379).

Implication: A move back into $376 within 24h is plausible.

7) Volume / participation

• Daily volumes surged during the major move periods (Nov mania; Dec 1 dump; Jan 8 drop). Current day volume is moderate (relative), consistent with relief rally / short covering rather than strong spot accumulation.

Implication: Without sustained high-volume continuation, rallies into resistance are more likely to be sold.

8) Scenario map (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price remains below $388–$393 → drifts down to $376 → possible wick to $373.

Bear continuation case:

• Break and hourly acceptance below $373–$376 → acceleration to $364 (Jan 10 low).

Bull invalidation case:

• Reclaim $393 and then break/hold $398–$405 → move toward $417–$423.

Given the strong rejection from ~398 and inability to hold 388–393 late day, the risk-reward favors a short against nearby resistance.

24h directional prediction

Slight-to-moderate bearish bias: expect $382 → $376 retest, with potential extension to $364 if support fails.

Trading plan (optimized entry logic)

• Since price is mid-range, the optimal short is not at market, but on a pullback to resistance.
• Best “sell zone” is where prior support turned resistance and where multiple hourly pivots occurred: $388–$392.

Take-profit should be placed at the most likely magnet first: $376, with a secondary objective at $364 if managing runners. (You asked for one close price, so I’ll use the first high-probability target.)