Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI

ZEC Rejection From the 410s: Heavy Selloff Volume Signals Another Leg Down

Market snapshot (ZEC)

Current price: $390.66 (2026-01-13 21:57 UTC)
Last daily candle (Jan 13): O 406.63 / H 411.58 / L 385.27 / C 390.66 → bearish close
Intraday structure (hourly): early grind up to ~409–411, then a sharp sell impulse (14:00–16:00) down to ~385–390 with high volume spike.

1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily trend (swing context)

From Nov peak ~698 to Jan low ~376: clear downtrend (lower highs/lower lows).
Late Dec bounce to ~540 failed, followed by renewed selling into early Jan.
Recent daily sequence:
- Jan 10 close ~376 → Jan 12 close ~406 (relief rally)
- Jan 13 close ~391 (give-back)
Interpretation: rally into Jan 12 looks like counter-trend mean reversion inside a broader downtrend, and Jan 13 is a rejection day.

Hourly trend (tactical)

Market spent most of the day below/near 406–409, then broke down hard.
Price is now consolidating around 388–391 after the impulse down (classic “bear flag / base after dump” behavior).
Key observation: the selloff leg featured very large volume (15:00 candle volume 44M+), suggesting distribution / forced liquidation rather than a gentle pullback.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action)

Immediate resistances (sell zones)

$399–$403: intraday pivot zone (19:00 pump to ~399.5, then fade). Likely first supply.
$406–$411: prior day open area and day high band → strong overhead resistance; also where breakdown originated.

Immediate supports (buyback / demand zones)

$388–$390: current balance area; repeatedly traded after the dump.
$385–$386: day low zone (Jan 13 L ~385.27) → first meaningful support.
$376–$381: recent swing lows (Jan 10–11 region). If $385 breaks cleanly, this becomes the next magnet.

3) Momentum & mean-reversion read (indicator-based, inferred from closes)

RSI (conceptual)

The larger move since late Dec has been bearish; the Jan 12 bounce likely relieved oversold conditions, but Jan 13 rejection suggests momentum failed to flip bullish.
After a sharp intraday dump, short-term RSI often rebounds, but in downtrends that rebound frequently becomes a sell-the-rip setup.

Moving averages (structure-based inference)

Given price was >500 recently and now ~391, the short/mid MAs (20/50 day) are likely above price and sloping down → bearish regime.
Price is also below recent key daily closes (e.g., Dec 27–Jan 6 region), reinforcing that rallies are corrective.

MACD / trend impulse (qualitative)

The failure to hold above ~406 after Jan 12 implies bullish impulse was weak; the Jan 13 dump is consistent with bearish MACD continuation (momentum reasserting downtrend).

4) Volatility & range analysis

Daily range Jan 13: ~$26.3 (411.6→385.3) ≈ 6.7% of price — elevated.
Such expansion days in a downtrend often lead to:
1. dead-cat bounce into resistance (e.g., 399–403), then
2. continuation to retest/undercut the lows (385, potentially 376).

5) Candle/Pattern read

Daily candle

Strong rejection from the 410s with close near the lower half of the range = bearish rejection / supply dominance.

Intraday pattern

Move sequence: push up → breakdown → consolidation.
This aligns with a bear flag / descending consolidation where the market pauses before testing lows again.

6) Volume analysis

The heaviest hourly volume appears during the breakdown (not during the earlier rise). That typically indicates:
- the up-move was low-quality/fragile, and
- sellers showed conviction on the way down.
Post-dump volume fades while price stalls around 388–391 → suggests lack of aggressive dip buying.

7) 24-hour price movement forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): Bearish to range-down

Likely path: attempt a rebound toward $399–$403, then rejection, followed by a retest of $385.
If $385 breaks with momentum, next downside magnet: $376–$381.

Alternative (lower probability): Bullish reclaim

Would require holding above $388–390 and then reclaiming $403 and $406 on rising volume. Only then would $411+ become plausible.

Given the dominant downtrend + rejection day + selloff volume profile, the edge favors shorting rallies rather than buying dips.

Trade plan (next 24h)

Bias: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open price (limit): $401.80
- Rationale: sells into the first meaningful supply zone $399–$403, near the post-dump bounce cap.
Take-profit / close price: $381.50
- Rationale: targets the next larger support band above the recent swing lows ($376–$381), realistic within elevated volatility.

(If price never retraces to ~401.8 and instead breaks below $385 directly, the better short entry becomes a breakdown/retest setup; but per your request, the optimal open is set as a higher-probability rally fade.)