Tradzar
Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI
ZEC at the Edge of Support: Bearish Continuation Favored, Sell Rallies Into $400 Supply
Market snapshot (ZEC)
- Current price: $390.41
- Last daily close (2026-01-18): ~$390.41
- Recent daily range (Jan 18): High ~$401.12 / Low ~$386.18 (intraday compression into close)
1) Multi-timeframe structure & trend
Higher-timeframe (Oct–Nov blow-off → Dec–Jan downtrend)
- ZEC experienced a parabolic rally from late Oct into mid-Nov, peaking with extreme volatility (highs in the $700s), followed by a sharp mean-reversion / distribution phase.
- Since late Nov, price transitioned into a clear downtrend (lower highs, lower lows). The regime is consistent with a post-blowoff bear market / corrective cycle.
Medium-term (Dec–Jan)
Key swing points (daily):
- Dec 8–12: recovery to ~456
- Dec 27–29: another recovery impulse to ~540–554
- Jan 8: major breakdown day to ~421 close after printing a low near ~382
- Jan 14: relief spike to ~447 close, then failed follow-through (Jan 15 close ~414)
- Jan 18: drift down to ~390, near the lower portion of the recent range
Interpretation:
- The January rebound (to ~447) was a lower high vs late Dec (~540+) and failed quickly—classic bear-market rally behavior.
Short-term (last ~3–7 days)
- Jan 16 close ~411 → Jan 17 close ~399 → Jan 18 close ~390.
- That’s persistent downside pressure with only small intraday bounces.
Trend conclusion: Dominant bias remains bearish on daily and swing horizons.
2) Support / resistance mapping (price geometry)
Immediate supports
- $386–$382 zone:
- Intraday low on Jan 18 ~386.18
- Major swing low area from Jan 8 low ~382.44
- This is the nearest "line in the sand".
- $375–$376 zone:
- Daily close Jan 10 ~376.01 and Jan 17 low area sits above this—if $382 breaks, this becomes the next magnet.
Immediate resistances
- $400–$401:
- Psychological 400 and Jan 18 intraday high ~401.12.
- Also aligns with many hourly opens/closes around ~399–400.
- $414–$417:
- Prior support (Jan 15–16 area) now likely supply.
- $447–$448:
- Recent swing high (Jan 14–15) = major overhead resistance.
S/R conclusion: Price is sitting just above a meaningful support shelf ($382–$386) with multiple overhead supply layers ($400, $414–$417, $447).
3) Candlestick & price action signals
Daily candle context
- Jan 18: high ~401, low ~386, close ~390 → weak close relative to the day’s upper range, implying sellers defended rebounds.
- Consecutive lower closes into support often precede either:
- (a) support breakdown continuation, or
- (b) a short squeeze / dead-cat bounce from oversold conditions.
Hourly tape (Jan 18)
- Early hours held ~395–400, then a midday drop to ~390, attempted rebound to ~393–395, followed by another dip into 386–388, and then stabilized near ~390.
- This looks like distribution below 400 and acceptance in the high 380s / low 390s.
Price action conclusion: Rebounds are being sold; stabilization near 390 is not yet a bullish reversal pattern (no strong impulse reclaiming 400+).
4) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)
(Exact indicator values aren’t computed here, but can be inferred from sequence and slope.)
- The sequence of lower highs + lower lows and repeated failure at prior supports suggests bearish momentum persists.
- The move from ~447 (Jan 14 close) to ~390 (now) is a fast drop (~13%), which commonly pushes shorter-term RSI toward oversold/near-oversold, increasing odds of a reflex bounce.
Momentum conclusion: Bearish primary momentum, but short-term oversold risk means shorts should prefer selling rallies rather than selling at the exact floor.
5) Volatility & range logic (ATR-style)
- Daily ranges recently are large (e.g., Jan 14 range ~44; Jan 8 range ~99). Even Jan 18 range ~15.
- In a high-volatility regime, price often oscillates between key levels (here: ~382 support and ~401 resistance), with breakdown attempts common.
Volatility conclusion: Expect wide intraday swings; best entries typically come from mean-reversion into resistance (for shorts) rather than chasing lows.
6) Market structure / Wyckoff lens
- Post-parabolic peak: distribution → markdown.
- The $540+ area in late Dec looks like a secondary distribution before resuming markdown.
- Current area ($382–$400) resembles a potential bear flag / consolidation after the drop from $447.
Wyckoff conclusion: Until ZEC reclaims $414–$417 convincingly, rallies are statistically more likely to be selling opportunities.
7) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): Bearish drift with a relief bounce capped below 401–414
- Price likely tests $386–$382 again.
- A bounce can occur from that shelf, but expectation is for sellers to defend $400–$401, with a possible secondary cap at $414–$417 if momentum spike occurs.
Bear continuation case
- A clean hourly breakdown and acceptance below $382 opens a quick move to $375–$376, potentially extending toward the low 360s if panic volume appears.
Bull surprise case (lower probability)
- If ZEC reclaims and holds above $401, then a push toward $414–$417 becomes likely. To flip structure bullish, it would need acceptance above ~417 (not just a wick).
24h directional call: Slight-to-moderate downside bias (continuation/pressure) with intermittent bounces; overall expectation: price struggles to hold above 400.
Trade plan (tactical)
Given support is close, the optimal short is not at market; it’s on a rebound into resistance.
- Strategy: Sell-the-rally into the $399–$402 supply zone.
- Invalidation logic: If price breaks and holds above $414–$417, the short thesis weakens materially.
Final call
- Decision: Sell (Short)
- Rationale summary:
- Dominant downtrend since late Nov.
- Recent lower high at ~$447 and subsequent failure.
- Current price below key resistances ($400/$414).
- Price action shows repeated selling pressure on rebounds.