ZEC

Prediction

BULLISH

Target

$389.5

Estimated

Model

trdz-T52k

Date

2026-01-21

22:47

Analyzed

Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI

ZEC Snaps Back From $349: Counter‑Trend Relief Rally With $375 as the 24H Gatekeeper

Market snapshot (ZEC)

Current price: $365.47
Last daily candle (2026-01-21, partial day close in feed): O $349.13 / H $374.51 / L $349.13 / C $365.47
Context: Major downtrend from the cycle high (~$736 on 2025-11-07) into January; today shows a sharp intraday rebound off the $349 area.

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

Primary trend (market structure)

From mid-November peak (~$736) ZEC has printed lower highs and lower lows into January.
January leg down:
- 2026-01-14 close ~$447 → 2026-01-20 close ~$349 (~22% drop in ~6 days).
This is still a bear-market structure, but the market is attempting a relief rally.

Key horizontal levels (support/resistance)

Using repeated pivots and notable closes:

Support zone S1: $349–$355 (today’s low + yesterday close region). This is the nearest demand and the level that triggered the bounce.
Resistance zone R1: $372–$375 (today’s high + intraday rejection area). Immediate supply.
Resistance zone R2: $400–$414 (cluster: 01-12 close ~$406, 01-15 close ~$414, several prior reactions).
Support zone S2: $342–$330 (01-20 low $342.88 intraday; earlier December washout near $325–$313).

Interpretation:

Price is back inside the $355–$375 range. The next 24h is likely decided by whether ZEC can hold above ~360 and retest 372–375.

2) Short-term structure (Hourly)

Intraday trend & impulse

Strong push: roughly $358 → $373 (14:00–15:00 UTC region) with meaningful volume spikes.
Pullback then stabilization: price slipped to $361–$357 and then re-advanced to $371 before settling around $365–$368.
This resembles an impulse + flag/pullback rather than a dead-cat bounce, but the rally is occurring within a larger downtrend, so follow-through is not guaranteed.

Volume / participation read

Large volume appears during breakout hours (14:00, 15:00, 19:00, 22:00), suggesting active two-sided trade.
However several hours show 0 volume prints (likely data artifact). Still, where volume is present, it clusters around breakout and retest zones, consistent with short covering + opportunistic dip buying.

3) Candlestick / price action signals

Daily candle characterization (today)

Today’s daily range: $349 → $374 (~7.2% range vs close), closing well above the open.
This forms a bullish reversal-type candle (wide range, strong close), often seen at local bottoms.

Rejection / acceptance

Price tested and rejected the $372–$375 area multiple times (15:00 high, later attempts near 19:00–21:00 stalled).
Current price below that ceiling implies near-term supply remains.

4) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning without exact calc)

Given the sequence of daily closes:

01-14 ~447 → 01-20 ~349 (many red/weak days) suggests RSI likely pushed into oversold/near-oversold.
Today’s bounce likely corresponds to RSI mean-reversion.

Implication:

Oversold bounces frequently extend 1–3 sessions unless immediately rejected at resistance. For the next 24h, upside continuation is slightly favored as long as $355–$360 holds.

5) Moving averages (qualitative)

After a month of declines from late Dec highs (~~$540) to now (~~$365), price is almost certainly below the 20D/50D and probably below the 100D as well.
That means:
- Any rally is still counter-trend until price reclaims at least the $400–$414 region.
- Counter-trend rallies can be sharp but are often sold into the first major resistance.

6) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style)

Recent daily ranges are large (e.g., 01-08 had a massive range; today also wide).
With this volatility regime, a realistic 24h expectation is ±4–7%.

Practical bounds from $365:

Upside swing: $380–$392 is plausible if $372–$375 breaks and holds.
Downside swing: $352–$355 is plausible on a retest; deeper flush risks $342.

7) Fibonacci retracement (swing-based)

Using the recent downswing 447 (01-14 high/close area) → 342.9 (01-20 low):

38.2% retrace ≈ 342.9 + 0.382*(104.1) ≈ $382.7
50% retrace ≈ $395.0
61.8% retrace ≈ $407.2

Confluence:

$382–$395 becomes a natural mean-reversion target band if the bounce continues.
$407–$414 aligns with prior structure resistance (R2), strengthening it as a profit-taking zone.

8) Pattern logic (what this most resembles)

Potential “bear flag then break” is not confirmed; instead, we currently have a possible short-term base at $349–$355.
The move today looks like a breakout from a micro-range plus short covering.

Most likely 24h path (base case):

Small pullback/retest toward $360–$357
Attempt to re-attack $372–$375
If $375 breaks with acceptance, extension toward $382–$390

Bear case invalidation:

Losing $355 would suggest the bounce is fading and opens a retest of $349 then $343.

24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

55%: Mild continuation higher / range expansion upward, holding above $357, with a retest of $372–$375 and possible spike to $382–$390.
30%: Range-bound chop between $355–$375.
15%: Breakdown below $355 leading to $349 → $343 retest.

Given the strong rebound off $349 and the market’s tendency to mean-revert after a steep slide, the next 24h bias is modestly bullish (counter-trend).

Trade plan (1-day tactical)

Decision: Buy (Long position)

Rationale:

Strong intraday reversal from a key support zone ($349–$355).
Momentum shift on the hourly (impulse + consolidation).
Fib/structure targets above provide nearby, realistic upside pockets ($382–$395).

Optimal open (entry)

Prefer not to chase mid-range. Best risk/reward is on a pullback into demand:
Open Price (Buy Limit): $358.80
- Near intraday consolidation and just above the support shelf.

Take-profit (close price)

First meaningful confluence target: prior resistance + 38.2% retrace zone.
Close Price (Take Profit): $389.50

(If price instead breaks and holds above ~$375 with strength, the next upside zone would be ~$395–$407, but for a strict 24h plan, $389.50 is a high-probability liquidity target.)

Note: This is technical analysis based only on the provided candles; crypto can gap violently on news/liquidity events.