ZEC at the Edge of a Breakout: Base-Building Above $355 Targets a $382–$387 Retest

Market context (multi-timeframe read)

Instrument: ZEC (Zcash)
Current price: $369.63 (2026-01-23 20:17Z)
Data used: Daily candles (Oct → Jan) + intraday hourly sequence for the last ~24h.

1) Primary trend (Daily structure)

• Major prior peak / distribution: The daily series shows a powerful blow-off top into $736 (Nov 7) followed by a long, heavy drawdown and volatility compression.
• Downtrend phase: From late Nov into early Jan the market transitioned into lower highs and lower lows, with sharp liquidation (e.g., Jan 8 low near $382 from $469 open).
• Current regime: Over the last ~10–14 daily candles, price has stabilized and shifted into a base-building / mild recovery:
  • Jan 20 close $349.10 → Jan 22 close $364.94 → current around $369.63.
  • This indicates short-term higher lows off the $342–$355 demand area.

Conclusion (daily): Intermediate trend is still “post-bubble bearish / mean-reversion,” but the near-term bias has flipped to a relief-bounce / basing upswing as long as $355–$349 holds.

2) Support / Resistance mapping (price action)

Using clustered pivots (daily closes + intraday swings):

• Immediate support: $369–$366 (intraday consolidation + repeated closes).
• Key support zone: $362–$355 (intraday base, multiple touches; today’s low area ~355).
• Major support: $349–$343 (Jan 20 close 349; Jan 20 low 342.88; this is the “line in the sand” for the bounce thesis).
• Immediate resistance: $374–$375 (today’s intraday high 374.06; repeated rejection).
• Next resistance band: $382–$387 (Jan 18–19 region, prior breakdown level).
• Higher resistance: $404–$416 (multiple daily pivots mid-Jan).

Interpretation: Price is currently pinned just below resistance (374–375); the market is deciding whether it can convert that level into support.

3) Intraday microstructure (hourly tape read)

Last ~24h hourly path:

• Early hours drifted down from ~371 to a flush toward ~355 (08:00).
• Strong rebound from 355 → ~372.8 (18:00), then mild pullback to ~369.6.

This is a classic “selloff → reclaim” pattern:

• Capitulation probe into 355 demand
• Recovery rally back into the 372–374 supply zone
• Consolidation around 369–370 rather than collapsing back—this is typically constructive.

4) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)

• Daily ranges recently:
  • Jan 20: high 370.79 / low 342.88 (wide)
  • Jan 21: high 374.51 / low 349.09 (wide)
  • Jan 22: high 367.75 / low 353.05 (moderate)
• Intraday range today: ~355 to ~374 (about 5.3%).

Inference: ZEC is in a high-volatility mean-reversion band, where a 24h move of ±4–7% is plausible. That supports trading for a push to the next resistance band rather than expecting a quiet market.

5) Momentum (RSI/MACD logic without exact prints)

While we can’t compute exact indicator values precisely here, the price sequence allows directional inference:

• The recent lower-lows sequence ended at 342.9 (Jan 20), followed by closes stepping up (349 → 355 → 365 → 369). This often corresponds to:
  • RSI rising from sub-40 toward neutral (45–55)
  • MACD histogram improving (bear momentum waning)

Momentum takeaway: Bear momentum is fading; bullish momentum is building, but still not “breakout strong” until 374–382 is cleared.

6) Moving-average regime (trend filter reasoning)

Given the sharp fall from 500s to 300s and only recent bounce:

• Short MAs (e.g., 5–10D) likely turning up.
• Medium MAs (20–50D) likely still overhead and downward/flat.

Implication: This is a countertrend long (tactical), not a confirmed fresh bull trend. Upside is tradable, but expect supply at each prior breakdown level.

7) Pattern & market geometry

• Base formation: The repeated defenses around $342–$355 combined with rising short-term closes resembles a rounded base / W-base attempt.
• Trigger level: $374–$382 is the “neckline region” of the intraday recovery and nearby daily pivot zone.
• Failure condition: Losing $355, and especially $349, would invalidate the base attempt and reopen downside.

8) Volume (interpretation from provided data)

• Daily volumes were massive during the Nov mania and remain meaningful in Jan.
• Most recent daily volumes (Jan 20–23) are still significant, suggesting the bounce is not purely illiquid noise.

Volume inference: The 355 reclaim likely had real participation; consolidation near 369 suggests absorption rather than immediate distribution.

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24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (55–60%): mild continuation higher / retest of supply

• Expect price to retest $374–$375, and if accepted, extend toward $382–$387.

Bear case (25–30%): rejection at 374–375 and rotation lower

• Failure to hold $366–$369 could rotate back toward $362 → $355.

Tail risk (10–15%): volatility spike / breakdown

• A sharp move below $349 could accelerate toward the low 340s.

Net: Slight bullish bias for the next 24h, but with clear overhead resistance.

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Trade plan (single-direction recommendation)

Given the reclaimed demand at 355 and current consolidation just under resistance, the higher-probability tactical setup is a buy-the-dip / buy-on-retest rather than chasing the top of the intraday range.

• Decision: Buy (Long)
• Optimal open price: $367.20
  • Rationale: near the consolidation shelf (369–366) but below current print to avoid paying the top; also close enough to invalidate quickly if weakness appears.
• Take-profit / close price (24h target): $383.80
  • Rationale: aligns with the next resistance band (382–387) where sellers previously appeared.

(Practical note: If price breaks and holds above ~375, the move can overshoot to ~387; if it loses ~362, the long thesis weakens materially.)