ZEC Flush-and-Reclaim Reversal: High-Volume Bounce Poised for a 24H Push Toward 385

Market context (multi-timeframe)

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

• Primary regime (last ~3 months): Large bullish spike into early/mid November (peaks >700) followed by a prolonged bearish mean-reversion and distribution.
• Swing-high / swing-low map:
  • Major peak: ~736 (2025-11-07 high).
  • Series of lower highs thereafter (late Nov/Dec/early Jan).
  • Recent key daily low: ~325.75 (2026-01-25 low).
• Trend read: Daily is still in a broader downtrend from the November blow-off top, but the last week shows loss of downside momentum and a short-term basing attempt.

2) Immediate structure (last 7–10 daily candles)

• 2026-01-19 close ~369 → 01-20 close ~349 (bear continuation)
• 01-21 close ~355 → 01-22 close ~365 → 01-23 close ~367 (stabilization / mild recovery)
• 01-24 close ~359 (pullback)
• 01-25 close ~329 (sharp flush)
• 01-26 close/current ~368 (strong rebound day)

This is a classic flush-and-reclaim pattern: a capitulation-like wick down to ~326–329 zone followed by a strong bounce back into the prior range.

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Candle/price-action analysis

3) Most recent daily candle (2026-01-26)

• Open ~329.23, High ~370.74, Low ~329.12, Close ~368.10
• This is effectively a very large bullish expansion candle (near high close), erasing much of the prior day’s selloff.
• Interpretation:
  • Sellers forced price down into demand (325–330).
  • Buyers responded aggressively, pushing into 370 supply.
  • Near-high close suggests buyers in control into the session end.

4) Intraday (Hourly) microstructure

• Early hours: gradual climb from ~329 → ~354.
• Midday consolidation around 350–358.
• Late push: break from ~364 to ~369.8 and then slight settle to ~368.
• This looks like trend day up with only shallow pullbacks → supportive for short-term continuation.

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Support/Resistance (S/R) and market geometry

5) Key supports

• S1 (major): 325–330 (recent capitulation low + intraday base). If price loses this, bullish thesis weakens sharply.
• S2: 342–350 (intraday consolidation shelf; also prior reaction zones on 01-21/01-22 region).
• S3: 355–360 (numerous hourly closes and pivots during the rebound).

6) Key resistances

• R1: 370–372 (today’s high area; immediate supply).
• R2: 383–385 (01-24 daily high ~383.52; first meaningful daily swing resistance).
• R3: 400–406 (multiple prior daily pivots; psychological + structure).

Implication: Current price (~368) is pressing directly under R1, so chasing here has poor reward-to-risk unless we get a clean breakout/acceptance above ~372.

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Volatility & range expansion

7) True range / volatility regime

• The 01-25 flush (low 325.7) and 01-26 rebound (high 370.7) imply very elevated volatility.
• In high-volatility regimes:
  • Breakouts can follow through, but
  • Retests are common (price often revisits 355–360 or even 342–350 before continuation).

Practical takeaway: optimal entries typically come from pullback bids rather than market buys at resistance.

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Momentum indicators (inference from price sequence)

8) RSI-style momentum (qualitative)

• The move from 01-08 breakdown through 01-25 likely pushed momentum into oversold territory.
• The single-day +12% rebound (329 → 368) often marks an RSI mean-reversion from oversold back toward neutral.
• Over the next 24h, that typically leads to either:
  • continuation to the next resistance band (383–385), or
  • a pullback/sideways digestion as RSI cools.

9) MACD-style trend impulse (qualitative)

• The multi-week downtrend implies MACD was negative.
• The abrupt reversal candle is consistent with bearish momentum decelerating and an early bullish impulse starting, but not yet a confirmed daily trend reversal (needs follow-through above 383–400).

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Pattern recognition (classical)

10) “Capitulation + reclaim” / spring

• 01-25: breakdown/flush below the recent range.
• 01-26: immediate reclaim back into prior value.
• This resembles a Wyckoff spring (shakeout) behavior.

11) Potential short-term reversal base

• If price holds above ~355–360 on pullbacks, structure can form a higher low and target 383–400 next.

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Volume considerations

12) Daily volume

• 01-26 daily volume is high (~529M) vs many preceding days, consistent with a high participation reversal.
• High volume on up day after a flush often supports at least short-term continuation.

Caveat: the dataset shows some hourly bars with zero volume (likely data gaps), so intraday volume is less reliable than daily.

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24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Given:

• Strong bullish reversal day closing near highs
• Price sitting just under immediate resistance (370–372)
• Elevated volatility likely to produce retest behavior

Base case (higher probability):

• Mild continuation higher but with a pullback/retest first.
• Expect price to probe 370–372 again; if accepted above, likely push to 383–385 within 24h.

Alternative case:

• Rejection at 370–372 leads to a pullback to 360, possibly 355, then sideways.

Bear case (lower probability):

• Failure back below 350 would suggest the bounce was mostly short covering; then risk of revisiting 330.

Net: Bias = bullish over next 24h, but entry must respect nearby resistance.

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Trading plan (decision + optimal entry)

13) Decision

• Buy (Long), because the market printed a high-volume flush-and-reclaim and a strong bullish expansion candle, signaling short-term reversal/continuation potential.

14) Optimal open price (do not chase into resistance)

• Prefer a pullback entry into former intraday value:
  • Open (Buy) = 360.5 (inside the 360–362 area that acted repeatedly as pivot).

Rationale:

• 360–362 is a likely retest zone if 370 supply causes a dip.
• This improves reward/risk versus buying at 368 directly under resistance.

15) Take-profit / close price

• First meaningful daily resistance sits at 383–385 (01-24 high zone).
• Close (Take profit) = 384.0.

This targets the next clear supply band before the heavier 400–406 resistance.

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Note: This is technical-only and does not include a hard stop per your schema; structurally, the invalidation area for the long idea is a sustained break back below ~350 and especially below ~330.