Tradzar
Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI
ZEC Bull-Trap After 330 Rejection: Expect Choppy Pullback and Another Leg Lower
Market snapshot (ZEC)
- Current price: 295.23
- Last daily candle (Feb 15): O 322.81 / H 330.96 / L 289.15 / C 295.23
- Daily context: Strong rebound day on Feb 14 (close 322.78), immediately followed by a large bearish reversal on Feb 15 (close 295.23), with a wide range.
- Trend regime (since mid‑Nov peak ~680): Clear primary downtrend (series of lower highs/lower lows) despite sharp counter-trend rallies.
1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis
Higher timeframe (daily)
- Structure: Peak near 680 (Nov 19) → persistent decline → capitulation to ~204 (Feb 5) → rebound to 322.8 (Feb 14) → rejection back to 295 (Feb 15).
- Interpretation: The move from ~204 to 323 is best classified as a bear-market rally until price can reclaim key broken levels and hold them (notably 330–370).
Intraday (hourly on Feb 15)
- Early hours: push to 330.96 then heavy selloff (04:00 candle closes ~320.9), continuation down through 317 → 313 → 309 → 304.
- Midday: breakdown into ~295 (13:00), small bounce to 299, then grinding/sideways 295–296 into the close.
- Interpretation: Intraday sequence shows distribution then liquidation, followed by weak stabilization. Buyers are present near 290–295, but momentum is not yet bullish.
Net trend call: Downtrend intact; short-term stabilization only.
2) Support / Resistance mapping (price action)
Key supports
- S1: 289–295 (Feb 15 low 289.15; current area; multiple hourly closes clustering)
- S2: 267–270 (Feb 3 close 269.92; Feb 13 close 267.69)
- S3: 240 (multiple closes Feb 6–10 area)
Key resistances
- R1: 299–305 (intraday bounce/inflection; prior hourly base)
- R2: 309–314 (lost support during selloff; likely supply on retest)
- R3: 322–331 (Feb 14–15 rejection zone; major overhead supply)
- R4: 349–355 (Jan 20–23 congestion)
Implication: Price is sitting on support, but the nearest meaningful supply is close overhead (300–314), limiting upside in the next 24h unless a strong impulse appears.
3) Candlestick & pattern diagnostics
Daily candles
- Feb 14: large bullish expansion candle (close near highs) → indicates short-covering / momentum chase.
- Feb 15: large bearish candle, closing well off highs and below 300 after printing 330.96.
- This two-candle sequence resembles a bull trap / failed breakout (attempt to extend above ~330, immediate rejection).
Intraday pattern
- Classic impulse down + weak corrective bounce (295→299) + consolidation.
- This often precedes either:
- a bearish continuation (another leg down toward 270), or
- a deeper mean-reversion bounce (back to 309–314) before sellers re-engage.
Given the magnitude of the rejection from 330 and the broader downtrend, continuation risk remains elevated.
4) Volatility & range analysis
- Recent daily ranges are very large (e.g., Feb 15 range ~41.8; Feb 14 range ~63.7), consistent with high ATR regime.
- High volatility in downtrends tends to favor the dominant trend after counter-trend pops fail.
Trading implication (next 24h): Expect wide swings; even if a bounce occurs, it may be sold aggressively at nearby resistances.
5) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning) & mean reversion
- The collapse from 323 → 295 in one day suggests momentum flipped negative.
- However, price is near the lower end of the last day’s range and sitting on support (289–295), so short-term oversold conditions can produce a bounce.
How to reconcile: In bear regimes, oversold bounces are typically sell-the-rip opportunities rather than trend reversals—unless price reclaims and holds higher resistance bands (309–314, then 322–331).
6) Volume / participation cues
- Daily volume spikes around major moves:
- Feb 5 capitulation day (very high volume)
- Feb 14 strong rebound (very high volume)
- Feb 15 still elevated
- This looks like two-sided liquidation/short-covering rather than steady accumulation.
Inference: The market likely remains in a distribution/volatility phase where rallies into resistance are sold.
7) Fibonacci & retracement logic (swing-based)
Using the major downswing approx 680 → 204:
- 23.6% retrace ≈ 316
- 38.2% retrace ≈ 386 Price topped near 331, slightly above the 23.6% retrace region—consistent with a normal bear-market retracement that fails below deeper retracement levels.
Implication: The rally to 330 fits a textbook “first retrace” that often gets rejected, aligning with downside continuation probabilities.
8) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): Bearish continuation with bounce attempts
- Likely path: 295 → 300–305 retest (supply) → rejection → drift/flush toward 285–289, with risk extension to 270 if selling accelerates.
Alternate case: Relief bounce (lower probability but possible)
- If 289–295 holds firmly and a squeeze begins: push to 309–314, possibly a wick toward 322, but probability of holding above 314 for long is lower given recent rejection.
Directional bias: Mild-to-moderate bearish for the next 24h (sell rallies), with choppy price action.
Trade plan (decision + optimal entry)
Given:
- dominant downtrend
- failed breakout / bull trap at 330
- nearby overhead resistance (300–314)
- high volatility (better to enter on a bounce rather than market selling at support)
Decision: Sell (Short)
- Optimal open (entry) price: 309.50
- Rationale: aligns with prior broken support (309–314) and typical pullback zone; improves R:R versus shorting at current support.
- Close (take profit) price: 272.00
- Rationale: targets the next major daily support band (267–270) while front-running slightly; consistent with continuation leg potential.
(If price never retraces to ~309.5 within 24h, the setup is “missed”—shorting directly into 289–295 support is lower edge.)