Detailed Technical Analysis for Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Step 1: Trend and Price Context

• Current Price: 203.92 (as of latest hourly candle June 6, 2025)
• Recent Action: After severe volatility in April halving the price (~$242 to ~$172), Apple rebounded to the $210 range by early May. Current price in early June is consolidating just below $204 — an area of prior support and resistance.

Step 2: Price Action and Candlestick Structure

• Daily Candles: Since the May decline, price has recovered but is facing resistance at $205 and $211. Intraday high volatility (e.g., bizarre spike at 20:00 June 6 to $251 and crash to $163, most likely data artifact) skews some readings, but true trading range sits between $200 and $206.
• Recent Pattern: Last 10 daily closes: [205.35 → 198.89 → 198.51 → 196.25 → 197.49 → 198.53 → 210.79 → 212.93 → 212.33 → 211.45 → 211.26 → 208.78 → 206.86 → 202.08 → 201.36 → 195.27 → 200.21 → 200.41 → 199.95 → 200.85 → 201.69 → 203.27 → 202.82 → 200.63 → 203.92]
• Interpretation: Recent higher lows and higher highs from ~$195 in late May to $204 suggest a short-term uptrend. However, momentum appears to slow at $204-206.

Step 3: Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: $200 (psychological + tested several times), $195 (secondary)
• Resistance: $205, $211 (strong sell walls from April and May sessions)
• Volume Profile: High volumes cluster around $200 and $204, indicating heavy institution and retail participation = strong support/resistance.

Step 4: Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14): Visually estimated given price movements; likely in the 53-60 (neutral to slightly bullish) zone—but not overbought.
• MACD: Price has crossed above 20/50 EMA in early June—potential bullish crossover, but the histogram appears to flatten.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Strong upwards slope from oversold (late May) to now, but possibly approaching overbought territory.

Step 5: Moving Averages

• 10/20/50-Day SMA & EMA:
  • 10MA: Likely near $202 (currently price hugging)
  • 20MA: ~$200 (recent close support)
  • 50MA: ~$206 (present resistance)
• Action: The price bouncing from 20MA and rising toward the 50-day indicates intermediate-term bullishness, but resistance at or just above the current price could cap gains.

Step 6: Chart Patterns

• Observed:
  • Sharp V-reversal April 7-9 (recovery from crash)
  • Mini ascending channel from May 23- June 6 (price cycling higher)
  • Flat-topped rising wedge (April 17 - June 7) narrowing into $200-205: typically bearish, often resolves by a breakdown.

Step 7: Volatility and Market Psychology

• ATR (14): Significantly dropped since April's crash, pointing to reduced volatility and a coiling range.
• Bollinger Bands: Bands narrowed, price hugging upper band near $204—risk for mean reversion or sharp move.
• Volume: No major spikes recently; absence of breakout suggests pre-breakout tension.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement (April High ~$245 to April Low ~$172)

• Key Levels:
  • 23.6%: $189.56
  • 38.2%: $201.86
  • 50%: $208.00
  • 61.8%: $214.13
• Current Price: Right at the 38.2%-50% retracement band (historically significant reversal zone for retracements).

Step 9: Multi-timeframe Confirmation

• H4: Trend oscillating between $200-206, forming lower highs and higher lows (symmetrical triangle).
• Hourly: Series of small-bodied candles, indecision at ~$204.
• Daily: 6 day soft uptrend, but no volume confirmation.

Step 10: Sentiment and Probabilistic Prediction (Next 24h)

• Technical Bias: Neutral-to-slightly bearish: price is stalling at resistance, with declining momentum. Flat or breakdown more likely than breakout unless $206 is cleared on high volume.
• Risk: If $200 breaks, cascade to $197.5 (recent intraday low) possible; upside, $206 and $211 are natural hurdles.
• Options Flow/Breadth (if available): Not provided, but price behavior aligns with sector consolidation, waiting on a market catalyst.

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Synthesis and Decision

• Given: Price stalling at the 38.2%-50% Fib zone, resistance at $205-206, declining momentum, flat-topped wedge pattern.
  • Base Probability: Downside more likely. Opening a short (Sell) at current or slightly higher price into resistance ($204.5) offers optimal reward/risk.

Stop-loss: Above $207 (above short-term resistance) Take Profit / Close Price: $200.1 (nearest support/psychological level), reassess at $197.5 if strong momentum appears.

Conclusion

Sell/Short AAPL at $204.5, targeting $200.1 within the next 24 hours.

If price breaks ABOVE $206 on volume, setup invalidated—cover short and reassess long positions!

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