Apple Inc. (AAPL) Technical Analysis — June 10, 2025

Step 1: Long-Term Trend & Price Action Analysis

• Daily Chart Structure: The last four months depict a marked shift in AAPL’s price action. The February–mid March period maintained a robust uptrend, with new highs regularly achieved. However, from late March onward, volatility spiked and the price structure deteriorated, indicating increased selling pressure and lack of sustainable bullish conviction.
• Gap Analysis & Breakdown: Early April showed a catastrophic gap down from $223 to sub-$200, with huge volume spikes (e.g., Apr 4, 125 million shares), signaling panic-selling and likely institutional liquidation. Price has since failed on several recoveries to reclaim prior supports ($211–$214 range).

Step 2: Volume Analysis

• Capitulation Volume: The selloff into early April was accompanied by enormous volume (160M Apr 7, 185M Apr 9), characteristic of forced liquidations. Post-selloff, volumes normalized but never matched those peaks, indicating the absence of renewed institutional accumulation.
• Recent Sessions: Some modest volume surges on down days (e.g., May 2, May 23, May 30), typically coincident with minor support breaks.

Step 3: Moving Averages (MA)

• Short-Term MAs (5/10/20-Day): The 5-day and 10-day MAs are now flat-to-down, with prices fluctuating below the 20-day MA. The death cross projected earlier in late April played out with a further drop.
• Long-Term MA (50/100-Day): Price remains below the 50 and 100-day MA, confirming a bearish momentum regime.

Step 4: Support/Resistance Zones & Fibonacci Levels

• Major Support: $198.50 (former resistance from March/major volume keys) has recently been reestablished as short-term support.
• Recent Resistance: $204.5–$206 appears as a stubborn ceiling in the past week; price probes above this level repeatedly failed.
• Fibonacci Retracement: Using the Feb peak ($245.8) to Apr trough ($172.4), current levels at $201.45 are below the 38.2% retracement ($204.35), indicating persistent weakness and inability to reclaim key retrace points. A bounce to 50% ($209.10) is unlikely unless a powerful reversal signal emerges.

Step 5: Candlestick & Pattern Recognition

• Intraday Candles: Last session shows high volatility: a spike down to $200, with a subsequent recovery to $201.45, but close was flat and not decisive. Upper wicks in prior hourly candles reflect failed attempts higher.
• Chart Patterns: Extended bear flag from the May 12–Jun 3 recovery ($197-$203) was resolved downward in the last two sessions. No base-building or reversal structures are evident.

Step 6: Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Momentum

• RSI: Based on approximate calculation, recent daily closes suggest RSI is near 43–47, at best neutral with a bearish undertone. No sign of oversold reversal; momentum remains to the downside.
• MACD: Histogram below zero, fast line trailing the slow line; downward momentum persists — typical bearish continuation setup.

Step 7: Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• Band Analysis: Price oscillates near or slightly below the middle band; lower band expansion coincides with episodic selloffs, reinforcing weak undercurrents.
• ATR (Average True Range): Spiking in early April and now stabilizing at elevated levels. Broad hourly swings in last session also reflect high short-term volatility.

Step 8: Order Flow & Market Structure

• Order Book Dynamics (Inferred): The repeated failures to hold above $204 under heavy volume indicate persistent institutional/unwinding at these levels.
• Market Structure: Lower highs and lower lows from April onward; brief consolidation phases lead to fresh breakdowns. No V-shape recovery — only weak rebounds followed by renewed selling.

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24-Hour Price Prediction

Given the:

• Failure to recapture and sustain levels above $204–$206
• Firm rejection at all major retracement levels
• Distributional volume patterns
• Absence of reversal signs in momentum/oscillators and weak order book structure
• Increased volatility and tightening range near local support ($198–$202)

The most probable scenario: Price will attempt minor bounces but will face heavy selling at $203–$204. A retest and possible breakdown below $200 is likely, with a short-term target near $197.50–$198 if the $200 support crumbles. No credible evidence for a bullish reversal in the next 24 hours.

Step-by-Step Conclusion

• Trend & confirmation: Bearish, confirmed by multiple overlapping indicators.
• Risk Level: Elevated. Downside volatility persists; use stops and modest position sizes.

Optimal strategy: Initiate a SELL (short position) on any bounce into $202.00–$202.50 resistance zone to maximize risk-reward, with a profit target near last week's critical support at $197.80. Place a stop loss above $204.60 (recent supply zone) for prudent risk management.

RECOMMENDATION: Sell (Short Position) on Any Bounce Toward Resistance