Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily Chart Perspective)

• Long-Term Trend: Reviewing the daily candles from mid-March to current (July 2025), AAPL experienced significant volatility, heavy selling toward early April (breakdown from $225 to $172), followed by a swift V-shaped recovery towards $223 by early April's end. From May onward, the price undulated between $195 (support) and $225 (resistance), but price action since June indicates a consolidation just above the $200 psychological level with higher lows and higher highs, indicative of a forming ascending channel pattern.
• Short-Term Trend: Since June 20, a push from ~$198 up to a peak of $213.55 on July 3, then a minor pullback and subsequent sideways consolidation. The key short-term support zone is $210, with immediate resistance at $213 and $215.

2. Candlestick Pattern Analysis (Recent Sessions)

• Last 6 Sessions:
  • July 3-9: Doji and small-bodied candles with upper shadows, indicating indecision and slight distribution just below the $214 resistance.
  • July 10-11: Mild bullish follow-through, but under $213 capped by resistance. Closing $211.16 shows holding above short-term support, but buyers showing fatigue.
• Intraday (July 11): Repeated tests of $210.5-211.5—narrow range, suggesting market is awaiting a break trigger. Slight bearish bias intraday with lower highs but buyers defending the $210 level.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: High volume seen during sharp drops (e.g., April’s plunge, June 30-July 2 rally), moderate tapering during consolidation. This reflects that most sellers have exhausted and current moves are driven by short-term traders.
• Current Sessions: Volume decreasing into latest sessions, common before a range breakout.

4. Moving Averages

• 20-Day SMA: Estimated near $210 (acting as dynamic support). Price oscillates around this level, showing tight consolidation.
• 50-Day SMA: Close to $205, reinforcing major support.
• 200-Day SMA: Remains below $200, affirming longer-term uptrend is still intact.
• Moving Average Bias: With price above all major averages, structure is short-term bullish bias, but absence of acceleration implies pause or minor pullback imminent before further upside.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Estimated): Based on price swing—RSI likely in neutral/borderline overbought (around 55-60). Not overextended, suggesting still room to run but not compellingly oversold for new longs.
• MACD: Bullish crossover occurred in late June; histogram is flattening out, suggesting momentum losing upside steam, but not yet reversing.

6. Chart Patterns & Price Action

• Double Top Threat: $213.5 multiple tests but no clear breakout; risk of double top reversal remains if $210 breaks (target $207).
• Ascending Channel: Structure since late June is a rising channel between $210-$215; price is currently testing lower boundary.
• Support & Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate Support: $210, $207
  • Major Support: $205, $200
  • Immediate Resistance: $213.5 (recent highs)
  • Major Resistance: $215.2 (multi-week peak in March), $220 (round number)

7. Fibonacci Retracement (From June Low to July High)

• Swing Low: $196.45 (June 13th)
• Swing High: $213.55 (July 3rd)
• 38.2% Level: ~$207.8
• 50% Level: ~$205
• 61.8% Level: ~$203
• Price is holding above 38.2% retrace, a bullish sign.

8. Volatility Metrics (ATR/Liquidity)

• ATR (20 period): Implied 2.5-3.5 dollars per day. Price staying compressed in a $3 band in the last several sessions—volatility contraction suggests imminent directional move.

9. Options/Order Flow (Volume Proxy)

• No explicit options data given. However, heavy volume clusters near $210-$211 suggest cumulative positioning, likely a battleground for bulls and bears.

10. Market Sentiment & External Triggers

• Fundamental Crosswinds: No immediate news, but general market backdrop (thematic AI, hardware cycle, macro resilience) supportive.

11. Composite Conclusion (Weighted Insight)

• The long-term trend is bullish, supported by the cluster of higher lows, price above all moving averages, and a V-shaped recovery structure post-April. However, short-term momentum is waning, candles show indecision, and $213-$215 acts as heavy resistance, while $210 is being tested repeatedly.
• The consolidation around $210 is likely a bull flag/pennant. Given the sustained uptrend, continued defense of $210, and compressed volatility following an impulsive move up, probabilities favor a breakout to the upside within the next 24 hours—especially if $213.5 is reclaimed.
• Risk: If $210 breaks decisively, a fast pullback to $207/$205 (within ATR range) is possible before buyers reload. However, no strong distribution or reversal signal yet.

12. Trading Strategy & Price Levels

• Recommended Action: Buy on minor dip into $210.
• Stop-Loss: Tight stop just under $209.5 (invalidation zone below consolidation support).
• Target: Short-term exit at $213.5, with partial hold for $215 breakout in case momentum reignites.

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Synthesis:

• Bias: Moderately bullish, with expectation of a near-term upside breakout from current coil. Favor buying dips at $210, targeting resistance at $213.5-$215, and vigilant to cut if $209.5 is breached conclusively.