Step 1: Macro Trend Identification (Daily Chart)

Observing the daily price action from March–July 2025, Apple (AAPL) exhibited significant volatility, with sharp declines in early April (plummeting from ~$220 to $172) and subsequent rapid recovery back toward $220 by late June. The last three weeks show choppy consolidation between $196 and $213, failing to break the $213 resistance convincingly but not breaking down below $200 support either.

Trend Analysis

• Primary Trend: Sideways-to-slightly-bullish. After the post-April recovery, recent prices are compressed between $208 and $213. Price failed to make significant new highs post-recovery, suggesting loss of momentum.
• Short-term Trend: Slight bearish bias over the past week, with lower highs ($213.55 → $211.16 → $208.62) and lower lows. Volatility is declining, but yesterday's (July 14th) candle is a long-bodied red day closing near the low ($208.62), suggesting bears are gaining the upper hand.

Volume Profile

• Strongest volumes occurred during major breakdowns and recoveries:
  • Breakdown (April 3rd–9th): Extremely high volume.
  • Recovery (April 14th and June 20th, June 30th–July 2nd): High volume spikes, often aligning with reversal points.
  • Current sessions display normal to slightly increased volume, with July 14th's volume at 38.7M (about average for recent range), with selling dominant at close.

Step 2: Chart Pattern Recognition

• Support/Resistance:

  • Immediate Resistance: $211.16 (July 11 high), prior support now flipped.
  • Immediate Support: $207.50–$208.00 (Yesterday's low and July 9th–10th intraday lows).
  • Major Support: $205.00 (June 30 low and consolidation base).
  • Major Resistance: $213.50 (multi-session July high) and $220 (major post-recovery resistance zone).

• Pattern Observed:

  • Bearish Engulfing Structure: July 14th session opened above $210, closed near session low at $208.62, engulfing previous two days’ closes. (Strong near-term indicator for sellers.)
  • Choppy, Descending Channel (Short-Term): Consecutive lower highs since July 2nd suggest distribution and emerging downtrend.

Step 3: Technical Indicators Assessment

• Moving Averages:
  • 20 EMA/50 SMA (Estimate from price data): Price has crossed below the short-term MA, with current price ($208.62) under the 20 EMA ($211) and converging with 50 SMA ($209), increasing probability of downward continuation.
• MACD:
  • While not explicitly given, the momentum shift from bullish to bearish (evident by lower highs/lows) and flattening signals a bearish crossover or loss of prior bullish momentum.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • By estimation, RSI is likely between 40–45, neither oversold nor overbought, but trending lower, consistent with momentum shift towards further price weakening.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price is closing near or at the lower Bollinger Band, indicating increased probability for a bounce, but historically, each lower band touch led to subsequent sell-offs during the current down-phase.
• ATR (Average True Range):
  • ATR decreasing since major volatility in April, but July 14’s candle is wider than prior several sessions, meaning volatility is expanding to the downside.

Step 4: Order Flow & Volume Microstructure (Hourly Chart, July 14–15 Data)

• Intraday action:
  • Morning session: Fails to rally above $211, multiple failed attempts.
  • Afternoon session: Downward pressure intensifies, with $208.5399 becoming the session support.
  • Late session: Sideways drift between $208–$209, very low volume, implying lack of buying demand at support.
  • Overnight action: No meaningful bullish reversal; price stagnates near yesterday's close of $208.62.

Step 5: Sentiment and Probability Scenario Mapping

• Sentiment:

  • Stronger bears in the absence of significant bullish catalyst; sellers dominate into the close.
  • Buyers absent at short-term supports; upward rallies sold into rather than accumulated.

• Scenario Probability (Next 24 hours):

  • Bearish Continuation (60%): New test of $207.50 support, potential break toward $205.20–$206.00 if sellers follow through and overall equities sentiment stays risk-off.
  • Flat/Bounce (30%): Price stalls above $208 to retest $210 before more downside.
  • Short-Squeeze/Sharp Rally (10%): Only triggered by surprise market news; no current catalyst visible in the technicals.

Step 6: Optimal Risk/Reward Trading Plan

• Strategy Chosen: Short the bounce; fade rallies into resistance.
• Entry (Open Price): Place short orders at/near $209.00–$209.20 (early session high or quick bounce). Better risk/reward than shorting the open.
• Target (Close Price): $206.00 (major support from May 20th, also coincides with the typical -1.5% move given ATR estimates from recent daily action).
  • If price breaks and closes below $206 with conviction, next leg may move to $205.20, but $206 is the disciplined initial target.
• Stop-Loss: Place above $211.20 (prior resistance/July 11th high) to avoid shakeouts from whipsaw.

Step 7: Confirmation with Multi-Timeframe Agreement

• Weekly View: Weeklies show distribution after several failed attempts above $213–$214. Weekly MACD likely crossing lower; RSI neutral to slightly bearish.
• Intraday Confirmation: Sell pressure on every approach to $209.50–$210.00, weak buying response near support.

Final Assessment

• Sell (Short Position) is Preferred:
  • Trend has shifted from bullish to neutral to slightly bearish.
  • Price action and volume confirm bearish control for now.
  • Operations (timing entries with minor bounces) increase reward/risk ratio.

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Trade Parameters:

• ENTRY (Sell): $209.10
• TARGET: $206.00
• STOP-LOSS: $211.20

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Summary: Apple has entered a short-term bearish cycle with a likely test of the $206 region in the next 24 hours. Shorting into minor bounces provides the highest probability and best risk/reward given current technical and volume signals. Monitor closely for any sudden reversal signals, tighten stop if price slices cleanly through $208.