Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: Apple Inc. (AAPL) as of July 29, 2025

1. Trend & Momentum Analysis

• Daily Trend: Over the last four months, AAPL experienced a sharp pullback from its late March highs, bottomed around 172 (April 8), and has since rebounded. Since early July, price action is predominantly sideways in the $210-$214 range, suggesting consolidation after the recovery rally.
• Short-Term Momentum: Last 10 daily candles show a repeated sequence of narrow-range days, small-bodied candles, and upper shadows between $213-$215, highlighting supply above $214. Daily closes barely advance, and volume has generally been declining, with small spikes into minor sell-offs.
• Intraday (Hourly): Today, price broke down from $213.80 at the open to $211.89 at 14:30 and $210.82 at session lows, recovering slightly to $212.24. Despite attempts to move higher, each rally toward $213-$214 is being sold.

2. Support & Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $213.80-$214 (multiple intraday and daily failures)
• Key Resistance: $215-$216 (recent swing highs; failed breakouts July 21-25)
• Immediate Support: $211.80-$212 (today's low holds the line)
• Key Support: $210.80 (today's absolute low); below sits $209.95 (July 7 swing low)

3. Candlestick Patterns & Microstructure

• Recent Candles: July 24-29: Long upper wicks at $214-$215 denote repeated rejection at these levels. Today’s candle is a small-bodied doji, opening and closing near similar levels after an intraday dip, signaling indecision but with failed attempts higher.
• Volume Profile: Lower volume on up-swings, increased volume on red candles (e.g., July 29 AM), indicative of distribution/bearish sentiment building at range highs.

4. Classical Chart Patterns

• Rectangle/Range: AAPL is forming a rectangle/consolidation closely between $210.80 (support) and $214.10 (resistance). A break of either will likely yield the next directional move.
• Potential Double/Triple Top: Repeated highs at $214-$215 imply waning bullish momentum; sellers are increasingly aggressive at this level.

5. Oscillators & Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, est. from pattern): With limited extension above $214 and swing failures, RSI is likely neutral-to-weak—probably in the mid-50s, trending down intraday.
• MACD (estimated from price structure): Histogram likely turning negative as price loses momentum and short-term averages flatten just below the highs.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Should be rolling over from overbought to mid-range, matching the multiple failed breakouts at resistance.

6. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA (estimated): Around $207-$209. The stock is currently above this, but only marginally, with price action flattening near $212.
• 20-Day EMA: Likely converging with spot price ($212-$213), indicating loss of trend.

7. Volume & Accumulation/Distribution

• Volume has been average-to-below average throughout the last week except for small spikes during down moves. Rising price on declining volume is a red flag for bulls.
• Accumulation/Distribution Line (projection): Topping, possibly starting to descend as each rally to $214-$215 faces distribution pressure.

8. Volatility & Range Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range, est.): Narrowed to ~$2.0-$2.5 in daily ATR, reflecting volatility contraction—often a precursor to a sharp move.

9. Order Flow & Liquidity Zones

• Today's session range ($210.82 – $214.81) may have set high liquidity at edges. The failed retest of $214 on decent volume, followed by a close below the midpoint, implies sellers took control late in the day and protected $214+.
• Order flow is likely shifting bearish for the next session as bulls failed to defend the highs.

10. Market Sentiment & Secondary Confirmations

• Recent narrative in mega-cap tech is sector rotation and profit taking post-Nasdaq run-up. Given Apple's sideways-to-down bias on volume spikes and repeated supply at range highs, sentiment is likely shifting to uncertain/defensive.

11. Price Action Forecast & Scenarios

• Base Case: A range breakdown (below $211.80) looks likely. With waning momentum, failed breakouts, and tightening range, AAPL will probably test $210.80, and if supply persists, a move to $209.00 is possible within 24 hours.
• Alternative: If $213.50 can be reclaimed with strong volume, immediate bearish view is negated, but probability remains low given current structure.

12. Professional Techniques Applied

• Swing Failure Patterns at $214-$215 signal local tops
• Volume Spread Analysis: Bearish (down moves draw more volume)
• VWAP Proximity (intraday): Price hugging/crossing below VWAP (not shown, but inferred from price/volume)
• Risk-Reward Assessment: Short entry at $212.20 with targets near $210.20 gives ~2.00 move with defined risk above $214.20.
• Multiple Time Frame Alignment: Daily/Hourly/Intraday show convergence toward local top and reversal structure.

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Conclusion & Trading Plan

Bias: Short (Sell) Open Price: $212.20 (current area, slightly under immediate resistance) Target/Close Price: $210.20 (near lower intraday band and key support; covers test of breakdown zone) Stop Loss: (Not requested, but prudent) Above $214.20

Rationale: Technicals align for a short-term bearish move: multiple failed breakouts, increasing effect of supply at resistance, flat/negative momentum, and low-volume rallies. A sharp flush toward $210-$210.20 is more likely than a breakout up, given the current setup and contraction pattern at the top of the range.