AAPL: Buy the dip at the pivot for a measured push to R2

Comprehensive multi‑lens technical walkthrough for AAPL (next 24 hours)

1. Data validation and context

• Primary inputs: Daily OHLCV through 2025‑08‑13 close at 233.33, with intraday prints on 2025‑08‑13 to premarket 2025‑08‑14. After‑hours ticks show extreme outliers (e.g., 245.48 high, 204.78 low with zero volume). Treat those as spurious prints and exclude from levels and volatility estimates.
• Reg‑hours bias: Price advanced sharply since 2025‑08‑06 on heavy volume, consolidating near 233 into 08‑14 premarket.

2. Trend structure (multi‑timeframe)

• Primary trend (daily): Strong uptrend since 08‑06 breakout; sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Momentum impulse from ~203 to ~233 in 6 sessions.
• Intermediate trend (last 1–2 months): A long June–July base around 210 was resolved higher; the breakout created a new up‑leg.
• Short‑term trend (last 2–4 sessions): Grind higher with shallow intraday dips; constructive consolidation under resistance at 235.

3. Moving averages and trend metrics

• 5‑day SMA ≈ 227.9; 10‑day SMA ≈ 216.9; 20‑day SMA ≈ 214.7. Price 233.33 > 5/10/20‑day by a wide margin; slope positive on all three. Bullish alignment indicates trend confirmation.
• 50‑day and 200‑day (inferred): Both below current price given months of closes near 200–213 and 190s earlier. Bullish regime with positive distance from key trend MAs.
• ADX (qualitative): Given velocity and range expansion post‑08‑06, trend strength likely elevated (>25). Supports trend‑following bias.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) approximation ≈ 70 (borderline overbought). In strong trends RSI can remain 60–80 for extended periods; this suggests momentum is robust but leaves room for a modest dip before another push.
• MACD (qualitative): Fast line well above slow with widening histogram since 08‑06; confirms upside impulse. No clear bearish cross developing yet.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Likely in upper band; a brief pause or micro‑pullback is typical before continuation.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ 4.5–5.0, reflecting larger ranges since the breakout. This frames realistic 24‑hour objectives: a 1xATR swing from a pullback can reach 237–238.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Middle ≈ 214.7; upper ≈ 229.7 (estimate). Price is riding above the upper band, a hallmark of strong uptrends; minor mean reversion to the band expansion zone (231–233) is typical before next leg.

6. Volume and participation

• Breakout volume: 08‑06 (108M), 08‑07 (90M), 08‑08 (114M) well above prior averages; 08‑13 still healthy (~69.8M). OBV trend up; accumulation into strength is evident. Volume confirms the breakout’s credibility.

7. Price structure, support, resistance

• Immediate resistance: 235.0 (08‑13 high cluster), then pivot R1 235.4, R2 237.5; psychological 240 beyond 24h unless a surge occurs.
• Immediate support: Daily pivot P ≈ 232.92; S1 ≈ 230.84. Below that, 228.3 (S2) and gap support 218.9–220.0 from 08‑07 runaway gap.
• Range view next session: 231.0–236.8 base case, with bullish skew if 235.4 breaks.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing 201.5 low on 08‑01 to 235.0 high on 08‑13; range 33.5)

• 38.2% retrace ≈ 222.2; 50% ≈ 218.3; 61.8% ≈ 214.3. These are deeper supports if a larger pullback occurs. For next 24h, shallow retraces into 232–231 are more probable.
• Measured move: Minor flag width ~4 points (229–233). Break above 233 projects ~237, aligning with daily R2 ≈ 237.5.

9. Pivot points for 08‑14 session (using 08‑13 H/L/C: 235/230.43/233.33)

• Pivot P ≈ 232.92
• R1 ≈ 235.41; R2 ≈ 237.49; R3 ≈ 240.58
• S1 ≈ 230.84; S2 ≈ 228.35; S3 ≈ 225.26 Interpretation: Trading above P favors long setups. A pullback to P offers a high‑quality risk‑defined entry; momentum push through R1 opens path to R2.

10. Intraday structure and VWAP context (08‑13)

• Intraday regular hours oscillated 231.8–233.9 with constructive higher lows; thin premarket around 233. VWAP likely sat near 232.5–233.0. Buying a retest of VWAP/pivot confluence is statistically sound in trend days following consolidation.

11. Ichimoku qualitative

• Price well above a rising conversion and base line; lagging span above price and cloud; forward cloud likely bullish. Ichimoku posture supports buying dips rather than fading.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Breakaway plus runaway gap sequence (08‑06 to 08‑08) with sustained volume is classic for a trend leg in progress. Recent two‑day consolidation under 235 resembles a tight bull flag. A close above 235.4 would confirm continuation toward 237–238.
• Candles: 08‑13 printed a relatively small real body within a wider range (indecision near resistance) but without distribution volume. Often precedes a measured continuation if support holds.

13. Risk and scenario mapping (24 hours)

• Base case (~55%): Minor dip to 232.3–233.1, then advance toward 235.4; partial or full extension to 237.0–237.7 if R1 breaks with volume.
• Bull case (~25%): Fast open above 234.5, clean break of 235.4; momentum squeeze to 238.0–238.6. Unlikely but possible if flows remain heavy.
• Bear case (~20%): Lose 232 decisively, test 230.8 (S1). If 230.8 fails, a probe to 228.3 (S2) is possible; would likely require broader market risk‑off. Trend thesis weakens below 229–230 intraday closes.

14. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Trend‑following continuation with buy‑the‑dip bias at the daily pivot, aligned with VWAP. Momentum and volume confirm the breakout; oscillators elevated but not divergent. Pivot math and a measured flag extension both point to 237–238 targets within one ATR.
• Entry: Use a limit buy near 232.9 (pivot P ≈ 232.92). If price runs without dipping, a secondary breakout trigger above 235.5 can be considered, but primary plan favors the pullback entry.
• Target: 237.5 (daily R2 alignment and measured move objective). This is approximately 1x ATR from the entry and sits just below round‑number supply at 238 for higher fill probability.
• Protective stop (reference): 229.8–230.2 zone (below S1 230.84 and below prior intraday higher lows) to avoid noise. Risk from 232.9 to 230.0 ≈ 2.9; reward to 237.5 ≈ 4.6; R:R ≈ 1.6:1. If breakout entry is used, adjust stop to 232.2 and target 238.5 to maintain R:R.

15. Probability‑weighted expectation and forecast

• Direction: Upward bias.
• Expected 24h range: 231.0–236.8 with upside tails to ~237.5 if R1 breaks.
• Catalysts and caveats: Ignore AH outlier prints; monitor broad market beta (QQQ/SPY). If early session breadth weakens and 232 fails on volume, stand aside or respect stop.

Bottom line

• The uptrend is intact, supported by rising MAs, positive MACD, strong OBV, and a textbook gap‑and‑go structure. Price is extended versus the 20‑day band, so the optimal play is a buy‑the‑dip at the daily pivot with a target near R2. Break of 235.4 unlocks the extension. Bias: Buy.