AAPL: Buy the Dip into S1 — Rebound to the 229 Shelf as the Uptrend Holds

AAPL ultra-detailed, step-by-step multi-factor analysis and 24-hour trading plan

Summary view

• Context: After a powerful early-August breakout (Aug 6–13), AAPL has entered a pullback/consolidation. Current price 226.01 sits above the 20-day SMA but below immediate resistance (229–231). The most recent daily bar (Aug 20) was a decisive red candle closing near the low, yet on modest volume versus the prior up-leg. Short-term momentum is down, medium-term trend remains up.
• My base case for the next 24 hours: A probe into S1/support (224.3–225.5) followed by a relief bounce toward 228.5–229.5. I prefer buying the dip into support with a profit target near R1.

Price action and structure

• Trend hierarchy:
  • Primary trend (months): Uptrend remains intact; price is well above the presumed 200-day SMA (not provided, but earlier prices suggest sub-200s). Higher highs/higher lows since early August.
  • Intermediate trend (weeks): Uptrend from Aug 1 low (202.38) to Aug 13 high (235.00), now in a controlled pullback (last 5–6 sessions) with lower highs (233.33 → 232.78 → 231.59 → 230.89 → 230.56) and now a lower low at 225.77. Structure resembles a bull flag/pennant digestion.
  • Short-term trend (days): Bearish tilt inside the larger uptrend after breaking 229–230 support; sellers controlled Aug 20 session with close at 226.01 (near day low 225.77).
• Supply/resistance zones:
  • 229.0–230.5: Prior support turned resistance (daily break on Aug 20). R1 from pivots sits at ~229.06 reinforcing this.
  • 231–233: Congestion from Aug 11–15; also 23.6–38.2% retracement cluster relative to recent swing.
  • 235.0: Swing high (Aug 13).
• Demand/support zones:
  • 224.3–225.5: Confluence of S1 pivot (224.36) and Aug 20 low (225.77) with intraday basing 225.9–226.0; immediate dip-buy area.
  • 222.5–223.0: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 202.38 → 235.00 (calc ≈ 222.54) aligns with S2 (222.72). Key secondary support if S1 fails.
  • 220.0: Gap reference and psychological round number; 50% retracement is 218.69, deeper-line-in-the-sand for trend integrity.

Classical indicators

• Moving averages:
  • 20-day SMA (approx): 219.14 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 226.01 sits +6.9 above the 20-SMA, signaling pullback toward mean is possible but not required. The 20-SMA is rising, supportive of medium-term momentum.
  • 50-day SMA (approx): Likely in the 210–212 zone given June/July prices; price remains comfortably above it.
  • 200-day SMA (approx): Likely sub-200; price is well above, affirming primary uptrend.
  • Short-term EMAs (8/21 estimate): 8-EMA likely ~229–230 after recent highs; 21-EMA near ~222–224. Price slipped below 8-EMA but remains around/above the 21-EMA zone. Typical bull-pullback behavior.
• RSI (14): Not provided, but profile suggests a recent overbought reading near Aug 13, now normalizing likely to the mid-50s. This is consistent with a healthy pullback within an uptrend (no bearish divergence catastrophe evident on daily).
• MACD: Positive but rolling over. Histogram likely contracting toward zero as price consolidates. This favors short-term weakness but not a full trend reversal.
• Stochastics (fast/slow): Likely exiting overbought territory into mid-range; room exists for a bounce after a brief further dip.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With 20-SMA around 219.1, and recent volatility elevated, upper band is likely around 233–234 and lower band closer to ~205–206. Current price is above the mid-band (SMA), showing no band break; suggests mean-reversion dynamics rather than a breakdown. No band walk; not trending down strongly.
• Keltner Channels: Price trading within channels; loss of upside momentum, but not a volatility expansion to the downside.

Volume and money flow

• Volume trends:
  • Up-leg (Aug 6–8) recorded very strong expanding volume (108M/90M/114M), confirming accumulation on the breakout.
  • Pullback days (Aug 11–20) show lighter-to-average volume (37–62M), especially Aug 20 (~42M), implying sellers lack the same conviction as buyers did on the way up.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): The strong early-August surges shifted the cumulative tone positive; the subsequent volume-light pullback is more consistent with consolidation than distribution.
• Chaikin Money Flow (qualitative): Likely still mildly positive on a multi-week basis given upthrust volume dominance; short-term downtick from the near-low close on Aug 20.

Fibonacci mapping on the key swing (202.38 → 235.00)

• 23.6%: 227.30 (minor support now turned resistance; price slipped below on Aug 20)
• 38.2%: 222.54 (first major retracement support)
• 50%: 218.69 (deeper pullback, still bullish in bigger picture)
• 61.8%: 214.85 (trend guardrail; break would damage the structure) Interpretation: Loss of 23.6% opens path to test 38.2% (222.5). A sticky bounce zone lies at 224–226 with S1/Fib confluence. If buyers reassert near S1, a move back toward the broken 23.6% at 227.3 and then R1 near 229.1 is likely.

Pivot points (Classic) using Aug 20 H/L/C = 230.47/225.77/226.01

• Pivot (P): 227.42
• R1: 229.06
• S1: 224.36
• R2: 232.12
• S2: 222.72
• R3: 233.76
• S3: 219.66 Interpretation: Price below P favors early test of S1 (224.36). The most probable intraday swing is S1 → P → R1 if buyers step in. R1 at 229.06 coincides with the broken 229–230 shelf, creating a high-probability profit-taking zone.

Intraday (hourly) structure from Aug 20

• 13:30–14:30: Gap-fade/selloff from ~230 to 226.7 on elevated opening volume.
• 14:30–19:30: Sideways-to-drifting action in 225.9–227.6. Buy attempts lacked follow-through.
• 19:30–Close: Price pinned ~226 with minor lower-low probes; sellers in control but not aggressively expanding range.
• Overnight (low volume prints aside): Stabilization ~225.63–225.64, current 226.01 suggests a small bid returning. Interpretation: Weak close, but lack of heavy-volume follow-through plus overnight steadiness favors a morning dip test then attempt to revert toward pivot.

Advanced tools and overlays

• Ichimoku Cloud (daily, qualitative): Price remains above the Cloud. Tenkan (conversion) likely drifting near 230–231; Kijun (baseline) near 222–224. A dip toward Kijun is textbook bull-pullback behavior; bounces off Kijun are common trend-continuation entries. Lagging span (Chikou) still above prior price, confirming bullish regime.
• DMI/ADX: +DI above -DI from the August surge; ADX likely rising then flattening. Short-term pullback narrows DI spread but does not flip the trend. Supports buy-the-dip bias.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely flipped above price on very short-term frames, indicating a tactical downtrend; on daily it may still be below price or close to flipping—consistent with waiting for support to engage (S1/Kijun zone) before buying.
• Williams %R / CCI: Both likely normalized from overbought, now mid-range. This favors entries near support anticipating mean reversion.
• Anchored VWAPs:
  • From the Aug 7 gap-launch (~218.9): Anchored VWAP likely computed near 226–227 given subsequent consolidation. Current price near this AVWAP suggests a fair-value battle; buy reactions here are common if trend is intact.
  • From the Aug 13 high (235): AVWAP near 229–230; that area is now resistance, matching R1 and the recent breakdown shelf.
• Volume Profile (June–Aug): High volume node around 229–231 from multi-day trade in mid-August; low volume pocket 223–226 (from swift early-August rise). Price often traverses LVNs quickly but can spring back to HVNs, supporting a dip-then-revert scenario.

Candlestick and pattern read

• Aug 20: Bearish wide-range red close near the low (quasi-Marubozu) usually invites early follow-through selling, but context matters: volume was not climactic, and the candle enters a known support air-pocket. A hammer/long lower wick today off 224–225 would strengthen the bounce case.
• Pattern: Bull flag scenario remains viable so long as 220–222 holds. A measured continuation could target retests of 233–235 after consolidation.

Volatility and expected range

• ATR(14) estimate: ~4.5–5.0. A one-day expected move of ~±2.0–2.5 is reasonable. From 226, that frames a 223.5–228.5 base range with tails possible to 222.7 (S2) and 229.1 (R1).

Risk management framing

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 224.5–225.5 (S1 zone), bounce to 228.5–229.5 (R1 and shelf retest). Close near 228–229.
• Bear case (25%): Break of S1 leads to flush into S2 (222.7), then stabilization; weaker close 222.5–224.5.
• Bull outlier (15%): No dip; immediate reclaim of P (227.4) and push to R1–R2 (229.1–232.1) if buyers step hard.

Confluence map (why the dip-buy makes sense)

• Support cluster: S1 224.36 + recent low 225.77 + Kijun/21-EMA area (222–224) + 38.2% Fib just below (222.5) + anchored VWAP from Aug 7 near 226.
• Resistance cluster: 229–230 (broken shelf) + R1 229.06 + AVWAP from Aug 13 near 229–230 + 23.6% Fib 227.3 (first gate).
• Volume context: Declining volume on pullback vs. explosive volume on breakout favors continuation after digestion.

Execution plan for the next 24 hours

• Bias: Buy the dip (Long) into S1/AVWAP support, target a push into R1/overhead shelf.
• Entry: Staggered is optimal in practice (e.g., 225.5 and 224.3), but for a single price plan: 224.60 limit buy (between S1 and the recent low).
• Stop (discipline, not part of the requested fields but essential): 221.80 (below S2 and 38.2% Fib 222.5 to allow for a liquidity sweep), risking ~2.8–3.0 vs. 4.4–4.5 reward to 229.06.
• Target: 229.06 (R1 / underside retest of broken support), offering favorable R:R.
• If filled and price reclaims Pivot (227.42) quickly, probability of reaching 229 increases. If price fails at Pivot multiple times, consider tightening risk.

What invalidates the idea

• A decisive breakdown and close below 222.5 (Fib 38.2%) on heavy volume would threaten the bull-flag thesis and raise odds of a gap-fill toward 220 or even 218.7 (50% Fib). In that event, stand aside or reassess lower entries.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Most likely path: Early weakness into 224.5–225.5 followed by stabilization and a grind/hard bounce up toward 228.5–229.5, with intraday resistance reactions along 227.3 (Fib 23.6) and 227.4 (Pivot). Expected close near 228–229 if buyers perform.

Bottom line

• Medium-term trend intact, short-term pullback nearing layered support. With multiple-tool confluence (S1/Fibs/AVWAP/EMA-Kijun zone) and benign distribution profile, the asymmetric trade is to buy the dip and target a retest of the 229 shelf within 24 hours.