AAPL’s Bull Flag Poised to Pop: Buying the 227 Pullback for a 231 Push

Disclosure: This is for educational purposes, not financial advice. Markets can gap and be volatile, especially around weekends. Use position sizing and stops.

Context and time frame

• Instrument: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
• Current price (latest print): $227.76 (2025-08-23)
• Data used: Daily OHLCV from 2025-04-25 to 2025-08-22 plus limited after-hours prints. Next 24 hours refers to the next trading session’s regular and extended hours once markets reopen.
• Note on after-hours data: The 2025-08-22 21:00 bar shows an anomalous high 241.12/low 217.16 with zero volume; I treat this as a data outlier and ignore it.

1. Price action and structure

• Primary observation: A powerful upside break began 2025-08-06 to 2025-08-08, with successive wide-range, high-volume up days, lifting AAPL from ~203 to ~229+. Since the 2025-08-13 close at 233.33 (with intraday high 235.00), price consolidated in a descending range to 224.90 on 2025-08-21, then bounced 2025-08-22 to 227.76.
• Current structure: Bull flag / controlled pullback above the gap-up zone. Series of higher lows since the August breakout remains intact; the 8/21 low (224.90) aligns as a key near-term swing low.
• Candlestick context: 2025-08-22 produced a constructive up-close day (high 229.09, low 225.41, close 227.76), reclaiming the prior day’s losses and closing in the upper half of the 2-day range—bullish follow-through potential.

2. Key levels (classical S/R)

• Immediate support: 225.8–226.0 (8/20–8/21 low zone), then 224.9 (swing low). Below that: 223.8, 222.0, and the psychological/technical 220.0 (breakout area) with gap support above 218.9.
• Immediate resistance: 228.8–229.7 (Fibo 38.2% retrace and recent supply), 230.6–231.6 (Fibo 50–61.8% and daily pivot R2), 232.8–233.3 (8/14–8/13 closes), and 235.0 (swing high).

3. Pivots (calculated from 8/22 H/L/C = 229.09/225.41/227.76)

• Pivot point (PP): ~227.42
• R1: ~229.43; S1: ~225.75
• R2: ~231.10; S2: ~223.74 These align well with the identified S/R and Fibo confluence.

4. Fibonacci mapping (swing 235.00 high to 224.90 low)

• Range = 10.10.
• 38.2% from low = 224.90 + 3.86 = 228.76 (first resistance trigger)
• 50% = 230.00
• 61.8% = 231.24 A move through 228.8 tends to magnetize 230.0–231.2. Confluence with R2 strengthens the 231 area as a first target.

5. Moving averages (approximations from provided series)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 220.4 (computed). Price above by ~+7.3, confirming medium-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA likely ~210–212 (given May–July basing and August surge). Price is well above.
• Short-term EMAs (8/21) likely sit ~227–230; price is near the 8–10 EMA cluster and above the 21 EMA, consistent with bull-flag digestion.
• Slope of 20/50 SMAs is up; no evidence yet of a bearish crossover risk in the near term.

6. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily (est.): mid-to-high 50s (≈56–60). Not overbought; plenty of upside capacity.
• MACD daily: Positive regime since the breakout; histogram recently contracted during the flag and is curling up, indicating a potential bullish re-acceleration if price clears 229.
• Rate of Change (ROC) off the 8/6–8/8 thrust remains positive on multi-session basis despite pullback.

7. Volatility

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.2–4.8. One ATR above current puts price in the 231.9–232.6 region within a single session—consistent with a 231–232 objective.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 220.4; upper band estimated low-to-mid 236s; price is in the upper half yet comfortably inside bands—room to expand without immediate overbought risk.
• Keltner Channels: Price is near the mid-to-upper band; a range expansion through 229 would likely ride the upper Keltner channel toward ~231–233.

8. Volume and breadth

• Breakout days (8/6–8/8) had exceptional volume (90–114M), validating participation.
• Consolidation days showed volume contraction (typical bull-flag behavior), then 8/22 bounce came with higher volume vs 8/21—constructive.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 8/6; no distribution signature evident during pullback.

9. Ichimoku

• Price > Cloud; Kijun (26-period mid) well below price (~216–219 est.). Tenkan (9-period mid of high/low) ≈ 229.9. Current price slightly below Tenkan but above Kijun—this is classic bullish consolidation. A close back above Tenkan (~230) reinforces upside momentum toward 233–235.

10. Anchored VWAP

• AVWAP anchored to 8/7 gap day or 8/8 breakout approximates to the mid/high-220s (≈226.5–227.5 depending on anchor). Current price sits slightly above/around this band, suggesting dip buyers near 226.7–227.3, aligning with our preferred pullback entry.

11. Regression channel and trend diagnostics

• Short-term linear regression since 8/6 is up-sloping with pullbacks contained within the lower half of the channel after 8/13. Friday’s bounce pivoted off the lower/mid channel area—bullish for a re-test of the channel median near 230–231.

12. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 8/6–8/8 impulse. Wave 2: shallow dip intraday 8/11. Wave 3: extension into 8/13. Wave 4: 8/14–8/21 flag to 224.9. Wave 5: likely starting—targets prior high zone 233–235 if momentum confirms above 229.7–231.3.

13. Options positioning (inferred, not measured)

• Round-number magnet at 230 tends to act as a gamma “pin”/inflection. A sustained push through 230 on decent volume often accelerates to 231–233 as dealers chase hedges.

14. Pattern summary and confluence

• Bull flag above a major gap with declining consolidation volume and re-acceleration signs.
• Fibo 38.2–61.8% retracement band (228.8–231.2) aligns with daily R1/R2 pivot zones.
• Price respects AVWAP support ~227 and swing support ~225–226.
• Momentum (MACD/RSI) supportive, not stretched; volatility allows a 1-ATR move to 231–232 within a session.

15. Next 24-hour price path (most likely scenario)

• Bias: Moderately bullish continuation.
• Expected range: 225.7–231.5.
• Path: Early dip buy interest 226.7–227.3 (AVWAP/PP zone), then challenge 228.8. A clean break/hold above 228.8–229.0 opens 230.0 and 231.1–231.3 (61.8%+R2). If momentum is strong, late-session probes toward 232 are possible. Failure risk: a push below 225.7 invites a re-test of 224.9 (bear path probability lower at present).

16. Risk management and trade plan (1 session swing)

• Strategy: Buy the pullback into AVWAP/PP band with a stop under 224.4 (below S1 and 8/21 swing low to avoid noise). Alternate trigger: Momentum add above 229.7 if breakout occurs first.
• Entry (limit): 227.10 (optimal within expected dip zone).
• Target: 231.20 (Fibo 61.8% / near R2 confluence). Reward ≈ $4.10.
• Stop (not required in output, but recommended): 224.40. Risk ≈ $2.70. R:R ≈ 1.5:1 for a 1-session attempt; scope to trail into 232–233 if tape is strong.

Conclusion

• Multiple independent tools (price structure, pivots, Fib, AVWAP, momentum, volume) cluster around a bullish continuation into the 230–231 area over the next session. The most efficient plan is to buy a controlled dip near 227 with a take-profit near 231.2.