AAPL: Hammering a Base Above 226 — Set for a Push to 230

Executive view: AAPL is consolidating tightly just above key daily support after a strong August breakout. Intraday buyers defended the 224.7–226 zone and reclaimed 227. Price sits above rising medium‑term MAs and near a dense volume shelf, with momentum stabilizing and volatility compressed. Into the next 24 hours, the path of least resistance is a drift higher to retest 229–231, provided 224.5 holds. I favor a buy‑the‑dip entry toward 226.4–226.7 targeting 229.9–230.6.

1. Price action and structure

• Regime: After a powerful earnings/AI/AI-related catalyst rally (Aug 6–13, 205 → 235), AAPL retraced to the 224–231 consolidation band, forming a bull flag/rectangle atop prior resistance (215–220). This is classic re‑accumulation behavior.
• Recent closes: 229.65 → 233.33 → 232.78 → 231.59 → 230.89 → 230.56 → 226.01 → 224.90 → 227.76 → 227.16 → 227.23 (intraday). The pullback found footing at 224.9–226 and is now basing.
• Intraday (today): Open 226.87, low 224.69 (buyers stepped in at S2; see pivots below), recovered to 227.48, now ~227.23. That forms a hammer‑like session with a long lower tail, indicative of dip buying.
• Market structure: Higher‑highs since early August; the current pause is a corrective wave (iv) within a larger uptrend or a bull flag. A break/close back above 229.3 opens a retest of 231 and potentially 233+.

2. Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 223–224 (dragged down by early August lows). Price at 227 is above the 20‑SMA and riding the upper half of the 20‑band—constructive for a continuation attempt.
• 50‑day SMA ≈ 210–212, clearly rising; price well above it, confirming medium‑term uptrend intact.
• 200‑day SMA (approx) in the mid‑190s; large bull trend backdrop.
• 8/21‑EMA cluster: Price oscillating just above the 8/21 EMAs; a reclaim and hold above 227 keeps short‑term trend up. A push through 229 would angle 8>21>50 positively again.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated mid‑50s to low‑60s—neutral/bullish. Not overbought; room to run. On 1‑hour, RSI made a higher low while price defended 224.7—bullish divergence.
• MACD daily: Positive but compressed after the pullback; histogram flattening. On 2–4h, MACD is close to a bullish re‑cross; a slight uptick in price could flip momentum positive into tomorrow.
• Stochastics: Reset from overbought to mid‑range; turning higher intraday—often precedes another push within a trend.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 4.0–4.5. Today’s early dip to 224.7 (~2.5 below open) and recovery show realized vol compressing vs last week.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline ≈ 223–224; upper ≈ 231–232; lower ≈ 215–216. Price is between mid and upper band—typical flag behavior. No band ride exhaustion.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA, 1.5xATR): Price sits just inside upper Keltner on rallies; a close >229 tends to invite a test of 230.5–231 (upper BB/KC confluence).

5. Volume/market profile

• Heavy volume nodes from 226–228 (recent consolidation), providing strong support/resistance flipping zones. Today’s defense of 226 and reclaim of 227 suggest the shelf is acting as a springboard rather than a ceiling.
• Trend days (Aug 8) printed 113M shares; subsequent digestion on diminishing volume (30–60M) indicates supply absorption rather than distribution.

6. Support/resistance and order flow zones

• Immediate support: 226.0–226.7 (volume shelf/VWAP zone); stronger support: 224.5–225.0 (prior daily closes + S2 pivot + intraday low 224.69). Below that: 222.5 (38.2% Fib)
• Immediate resistance: 228.9–229.3 (R1 pivot/last supply cap). Next: 230.6–231.0 (R2 pivot/upper band), then 233.3 (recent high) and 235 (swing high).
• Supply/demand: Repeated rejections near 229–231 define supply; repeated bids 224.7–226 define demand. The multi‑touch nature of both edges increases the probability of a range break in the direction of the prevailing higher‑timeframe trend (up).

7. Pivot levels (calculated from 8/25 OHLC: H=229.30, L=226.23, C=227.16)

• Pivot P ≈ 227.56
• R1 ≈ 228.90; R2 ≈ 230.63
• S1 ≈ 225.83; S2 ≈ 224.49 Today’s low tagged S2 (~224.5) and bounced. Price is hovering around P and eyeing R1. Classic bullish intraday progression (S2 → P → R1) supports an upside bias into the next session.

8. Fibonacci and harmonic context

• Swing: Aug 1 low 202.38 → Aug 13 high 235.00.
• 38.2% retrace ≈ 222.55; 50% ≈ 218.69; 61.8% ≈ 214.98. The pullback halted well above 50% and is pinging the 224–227 shelf—healthy bull market retracement profile.
• Pattern: Bull flag/descending channel breaking upward requires a 1h/4h close above 229.3, projecting to 233 then 235.

9. Ichimoku lens (approximate)

• Price above the daily cloud; Tenkan near ~229, Kijun near ~223–224. Price sandwiched between Tenkan and Kijun often resolves in trend direction; a rotation back to Tenkan (≈229) is likely if 226 holds. Span A > Span B and rising—bullish.

10. VWAP and intraday flow

• Today’s session reclaimed VWAP after the morning flush toward 224.7. Holding above intraday VWAP into the close typically begets continuation the next morning, especially with a supportive tape.

11. Statistical/mean‑reversion checks

• Z‑score vs 20‑SMA: (227 − 223)/StdDev(20) ≈ +1.0—modestly positive and not stretched. Mean‑reversion risk is low unless we spike >231 quickly.
• Expected 24h range via ATR fraction: ±(0.6–0.7)*ATR ≈ ±2.4–3.2 → Probabilistic range 224.0–230.5, skewed upward given trend/momentum context.

12. Macro/relative and options color (contextual)

• Correlation: AAPL tracks QQQ/SPY; broader indices are firm, with yields stabilizing—tailwind.
• Options/gamma (inferred): High open interest typically pins round numbers (225/230). Current price gravitating around 227–230 suggests a gamma pin near 230, which can magnetize price upward into that level in the next session absent shocks.

13. Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Phase B/C of re‑accumulation with a spring-ish test at 224.7, now moving toward resistance (229–231). A Sign of Strength (SOS) would be a push through 229.3 on rising volume.
• Elliott: Wave 3 topped ~235; wave 4 likely ended at 224.9; wave 5 minor upswing toward 233–235 possible; near‑term subwaves point to an advance toward 230 first.

14. Candle/pattern diagnostics

• Today shaping a hammer-like daily (if it closes >227), occurring right above the 20‑SMA and at S2 pivot—highly reliable reversal context.
• Recent sessions show small‑body candles with lower wicks—buyers are consistently defending dips.

15. Risk and invalidation

• Bull thesis valid while above 224.5 (S2). A daily close below 224.5 would open 222.5 (38.2% Fib) and 220.0.
• Upside invalidation: A sharp rejection from 229.3 with high volume could enforce another day of range trade, but the larger trend remains up unless 224.5 breaks.

16. Next 24 hours—probabilistic path

• Base case (60%): Drift higher toward 229.0–230.6, pausing at 229.3 (R1/supply) and probing 230.6 (R2/upper band). Close or gap toward 229–230.
• Range fade (25%): Trade 225.8–229.3; hold the pivot; net change small.
• Bear break (15%): Lose 224.5 on a risk‑off tape; slide to 222.5 before buyers re‑engage.

Trade plan

• Bias: Buy the dip above 224.5, aiming for the supply test 229.9–230.6 within 24h.
• Entry: Limit buy near 226.5–226.7 (volume shelf and just below current price to improve R:R).
• Target: 230.6 (R2/upper band confluence). Conservative partial at 229.3 (R1) with runner to 230.6.
• Stop (for risk management, not part of output fields): 224.4 (below S2/hammer low). R:R ≈ (226.6→230.6 +4.0 vs −2.2) ~1.8:1.

Conclusion The confluence of bullish structure (bull flag), defended supports (224.5–226), improving intraday momentum (VWAP reclaim, RSI positive divergence), and tight volatility below well‑defined resistance (229–231) favors a buy‑the‑dip setup. Expect a retest of 229.3 and a probe of 230.6 in the next 24 hours if 224.5 holds.