AAPL: Gap-Fill Bounce at 38.2% Fib — Buy the Dip in 247s for a Push Toward 252

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish mean-reversion from the 246.5–247.5 demand zone toward 250.5–252.0, barring a decisive break below 245.
• Preferred tactic: Buy the dip into 247s with a tactical target near the 20-day mean/overhead resistance cluster around 251.5–252.0. Backup: momentum add-on above 250.6 if strength confirms.

1. Price action, structure, and regime

• Higher time frame: Since early August, AAPL advanced from ~202 to ~259 (10/3), keeping price well above the 200-day trend and establishing a strong primary uptrend. The October pullback (258 → 245) looks corrective within that larger uptrend.
• Intermediate: Post-gap rally on 9/19–9/22 (245.5 → 256.1) followed by a tight consolidation/flag 254–259. Break lower 10/9–10/10 filled the 9/22 gap and tagged a swing low 245.27. Price has since stabilized, printing a modest bounce (245.27 → 249.34 → 248.45 today).
• Short-term intraday (today): Opened weak (low 246.18), reclaimed VWAP and stabilized above prior session’s pivot S1, forming higher intraday lows post-open; this is a constructive base-building behavior just above key support.

2. Key levels and confluence map

• Supports:
  • 246.84: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 9/10 low 226.79 → 10/3 high 259.24.
  • 247.27: Daily pivot S1 (from 10/15 H/L/C = 251.82/247.47/249.34). Price rebounded from this area today.
  • 246.18: Today’s session low (so far). Below that, 245.27: 10/10 capitulation low and gap-fill completion.
  • 245.19: Pivot S2. 243.02: 50% Fib of 226.79 → 259.24.
• Resistances:
  • 248.30–248.90: 9/22 gap lip/overhead supply; today’s intraday high 248.91 tagged it.
  • 249.60–250.50: 38.2–50% retrace of 9/22 high 256.64 → 10/10 low 245.27; also round-number 250, plus daily pivot P = 249.54.
  • 251.60–251.82: R1 (251.62) and 10/15 high 251.82.
  • 252.31/252.68: 9/24 close 252.31 and 20-day SMA ≈ 252.68 (dynamic resistance).
  • 253.89: R2 pivot; above that, 256.1/256.9/258.0 are the high-volume node/flag top magnets.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 252.68: Price is below the short-term mean by ~1.7%, suggesting a mean-reversion tailwind if supports hold.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 244–246: Price remains above, preserving the intermediate uptrend and characterizing the pullback as corrective.
• 200-day SMA (est.) ≈ 215–220: Firmly below price; primary uptrend intact. Interpretation: Pullback to/below the 20-day, but still above the 50/200-day stack = constructive dip within an overall uptrend.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) on daily ≈ 45: Neutral-to-slightly-bearish after the pullback, with room to rise before overbought. This supports a bounce rather than immediate exhaustion.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Negative crossover post-10/10 drop, histogram improving the last few sessions. This is consistent with an early-stage momentum repair; a push through 250–252 would likely further reduce negative momentum.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Lifting from mid-range after touching lower bounds during the drop, favoring a continued recovery if supports persist.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (est.) ≈ 4.5–4.8: Elevated but compressing relative to the capitulation day; expect 24h ranges of ~4–5 points in normal conditions.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 252.7, upper ≈ ~260, lower ≈ ~245. Price is in the lower band zone, having bounced off the vicinity of the lower band—typical mean-reversion setup toward the midline, initially into 250–252.
• Keltner Channel (est.): Middle ≈ 252.7; lower band ≈ 245.5 (with 1.5×ATR). Current price sits between the lower band and midline—again supportive of a rebound path if 246–247 holds.

6. Candles and patterns

• 10/10 long bearish day likely completed the gap-fill “throwback” to the 9/22 breakout zone (245–248). Subsequent sessions (10/13–10/15) formed a three-session stabilization/gradual recovery. Today’s intraday action shows a lower tail and VWAP reclaim—hallmarks of dip absorption near a known demand pocket.
• No clear reversal pattern completion yet on the daily (e.g., full morning star), but we see constructive basing behavior at a Fibonacci + gap confluence.

7. Volume and participation

• Massive up-volume on 9/19–9/22 exceeded the down-volume of 10/10, suggesting the dominant impulse is still higher. Recent sessions show average participation; no distribution spike after the selloff.
• OBV (qualitative): Off peak but holding well above early September levels; not suggestive of heavy distribution.
• Volume shelf: 254–257 was the high-volume consolidation node; this should act as resistance/magnet on recoveries. Conversely, 246–248 is a thinner, event-driven area now converting to support after the gap-fill.

8. Market profile, pivots, and VWAP

• Daily pivot P = 249.54: Price currently below P but above S1 (247.27). If the session reclaims and holds above P, it typically opens path to R1 (251.62).
• R1 cluster (251.6–251.8) aligns with prior day’s high, making that band a realistic 24-hour objective.
• Intraday VWAP: Reclaimed post-open; holding above it favors long-side scalps on dips while it remains intact.

9. Fibonacci frameworks

• Primary swing (226.79 → 259.24): 38.2% = 246.84 (where buyers are showing up); 50% = 243.02 (next downside risk if 246 fails); 61.8% = 239.19 (bear case stretch).
• Secondary swing (256.64 → 245.27): 38.2% = 249.62; 50% = 250.96; 61.8% = 252.31. These retracement bands neatly match the overhead resistance ladder, making 249.6–252.3 the immediate decision box.

10. Risk scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Hold 246.5–247.5, grind higher into 249.6–250.5, and probe 251.6–252.0. Likely close in the upper half if R1 tests.
• Range/neutral (≈30%): Choppy 246.5–249.5, failure to convert 250–251; coil under resistance and set up for a later attempt.
• Bear break (≈15%): Lose 246 decisively → 245.3 retest; if that fails, quick extension toward 243.0 (50% Fib). Would invalidate the immediate bounce thesis.

11. Synthesis and trade thesis

• Confluences favor buying dips, not chasing: Price is perched at a multi-factor support cluster (gap-fill completion, Fib 38.2%, pivot S1, proximity to lower Bollinger/Keltner bounds), while the larger uptrend (50/200 SMA stack) remains intact. Momentum is repairing; volatility is adequate for a 2–4 point push without requiring a regime change. First magnet above is 249.6–251.8, with 252 (20DMA vicinity) capping the typical 24h move.

12. Execution plan and risk management

• Primary entry: Buy limit on pullback to 247.2 (inside 246.8–247.5 demand), where risk is quantifiable and R:R is favorable.
• Target: 251.9 (near R1/previous day’s high cluster and just under 20DMA/overhead offers) within 24 hours.
• Suggested stop (risk control, not part of the required output): 245.1 (below 10/10 low 245.27 and pivot S2 245.19). Risk ≈ 2.1; Reward ≈ 4.7; R:R ≈ 2.2:1.
• Contingency: If no fill on the dip, optional momentum add-on above 250.6 (daily pivot reclaim + 50% micro-Fib) with a tighter stop below 249.4, targeting 252.2–252.8.

13. What would negate the setup?

• A decisive close below 245 (high volume) would shift bias to a deeper retracement toward 243/239, invalidating the buy-the-dip posture for the next 24 hours.

Price path forecast (24h)

• Probable path: 247.0–247.5 base → reclaim 249.5–250.0 → test 251.6–252.0 → stall/close near 250.8–251.8 if resistance holds. A strong tape could briefly tag 252.3 but sustained trade above 252.7 likely needs a new catalyst.

Bottom line

• The tape favors a tactical long from 247s into the 251–252 resistance band, leveraging confluence of supports, mean-reversion, and improving short-term momentum, while respecting 245 as the invalidation line.