Deep Technical Analysis of Asset Entities Inc. (ASST) – July 8th, 2025

Step 1: Chart Structure, Volume, and Volatility Profile

Multi-Month Background

• From March through June 2025, ASST traded well below $1, exhibiting a textbook low-liquidity microcap behavior.
• May 7th, 2025, saw an explosive up-gap and volatility event:
  • The price jumped from $0.61 to $3.39 (500%+ intraday), followed by massive surges to $13.42 on May 22, with volumes in the hundreds of millions.
• Volatility since then has remained extremely high—multi-dollar daily ranges and regular high-percentage swings (over 20–50% daily).
• Volume in recent days:
  • On July 7: Over 91M shares traded as it spiked to $10.44, closing at $6.98.
  • July 8's session: Volume normalizing, but still exceptionally high relative to pre-May.

Step 2: Candlestick Pattern and Price Action Analysis (July 7–8)

• July 7 session: Huge gap-up, vertical rally to $10.44, then a wild retracement down to close at $6.98, forming a clear intraday shooting star and suggesting a blow-off top/fakeout.
• July 8: Opened at $7.75, high $8.68, closing at $7.13. The candlestick is a long upper wick – strong selling seen on every test of $8+.
  • Hourly data reveals heavy sellers repeatedly pushing price off resistance regions above $7.75–8.00.
  • Last hour closes at $7.07, confirming weak finish.

Step 3: Moving Averages (Short- and Medium-Term)

• 20-period SMA (approx): Given high volatility, the SMA is upward sloping but has started to flatten and curve down intraday.
• 200-period SMA: Not relevant due to recent multi-magnitude price shift, but would be well below the current region.

Step 4: Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• 14-period RSI (mid-June to now): Has frequently breached overbought territory (>70), then quickly reversed. On July 8's close, RSI is cooling towards neutral (est. 50–55); this reflects loss of short-term momentum.
• MACD: Witnesses a peak histogram in late June/early July, with histogram declining as price failed to retake July 7 highs. Bearish crossover imminent.
• Stochastics: Rapid cycling, but now in downswing, not yet oversold, indicating more room to fall.

Step 5: Volume Analysis

• July 7/8: Volume spikes at price tops, then tapers off during selloffs—clear sign of distribution by smart money.
• Pre-surge basing (March–April): Tiny volume before May's breakout; no redeeming support levels below $6 established since then.

Step 6: Support and Resistance

• Current Resistance:
  • Strong: $8.00, $8.68 (recent highs repeatedly sold off)
  • Psychological: $7.50, $8.00
• Support:
  • Immediate: $7.00 (barely holding end of day), then $6.70, $6.10
  • Gap/failure zone support: $5.75–6.00 (historical pivot before megasurge)

Step 7: Chart Patterns

• Blow-off top pattern: July 7 fits a classic vertical blow-off, July 8 failed secondary rally confirms it.
• Bearish engulfing candles intraday: Multiple hours with higher opens/lower closes reinforce bear control.
• Potential head and shoulders (minute scale): Not perfectly formed, but clear lower highs after $8.68 warn of rounded top.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement

• Fib levels plotted from July 7 low $4.11 to $10.44 high:
  • 38.2%: ~$8.1
  • 50%: ~$7.27
  • 61.8%: ~$6.47
• With current price breaking the 50% retracement and heading towards 61.8%, technical support is $6.45–6.50.

Step 9: Order Book and Market Dynamics (Qualitative read)

• Given several episodes of high-frequency, forced selling, we infer aggressive profit-taking and momentum trader exit.
• No sustained band of buyers evident above $7.0; any spikes are quickly sold into.

Step 10: Sentiment & Market Context

• Sentiment flipping from euphoria to caution: The parabolic move triggered media/retail attention, but sharp reversal is classic of retail speculation unwinding.
• Wider market backdrop (not shown) but assumed neutral/bearish for microcaps: These parabolic rallies tend to collapse when market-wide risk appetite fades.

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Step 11: Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Expectation:
  • Early dip-buyers may attempt a short-lived bounce at $7.00, but momentum, oscillators, and lack of volume inflow argue for further downside.
  • If $7.00 is lost, rapid move toward $6.40–$6.00 gap support is likely.
  • Intraday rallies likely to be capped at $7.50–$7.70.
  • Volatility remains extreme; wide stops are required for any trade.

Summary Signal:

• Bias: Sell (short position). The blow-off, waning momentum, failed rallies, and absence of strong underlying support signal significant downside risk in the near term. Risk: high short interest could spark small rebounds, but the dominant setup is for lower prices.
• Entry/Exit:
  • Optimal entry for short near $7.13–7.20 (current/next uptick), or fading any rally up to $7.50.
  • Target for covering (take profit): $6.10 (potential strong support just below the 61.8% retracement and recent pivot low).

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Risk Note: Extreme volatility. Conservative position sizing and tight monitoring mandatory.

Final Decision: Sell (Short Position).

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