Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for BigBear.ai, Inc. (BBAI)

1. Trend Analysis: Daily and Intraday Perspective

Daily Chart Perspective (Mar 2025 – Jul 2025)

• Primary Observation: The price of BBAI underwent a long phase of accumulation and sideways movement (2.5–3.8 USD) between March and early June 2025, with several false breakouts and above-average volume spikes (notably 120–200M+ shares on some days).
• Major Breakout: On June 24, clear breakout from consolidation zone: price jumped from $4.17 to $5.23 on extremely high volume (nearly 300M shares). This breakout carried price action toward $7–8 and into an accelerated uptrend.
• Volatility Surge: By the end of June and into July, parabolic activity observed—large daily ranges and upward gaps frequently filled intraday, confirming speculative/retail activity and institutional entry. Volume remains highly elevated.

Recent Sessions (July 1 – 18, 2025)

• Price Range Expansion: July 1–18 saw BBAI moving from ~$6.5 to a peak of $8.72 before pulling back to $7.95.
• Largest Volume Day: July 2nd ($7.56 close, 375M shares) and on subsequent peaks, confirming persistent momentum.
• Intraday Data (July 18): Intraday highs tested $8.48, but persistent selling seen into $8.0 and below after 19:00, indicating profit-taking and short-term resistance.

2. Candlestick and Pattern Recognition

• Bullish Engulfing: Seen on June 24 and again on June 26, confirming upward continuation post-breakout.
• Long-Upper Shadows (July 17–18): Indicate exhaustion by buyers and early dominance by sellers near $8.40–8.50—potential short-term topping pattern.
• Rounded Top/Double Top Potential: July 8 ($8.72 intraday) and July 17–18 highs ($8.38–8.48) have not been convincingly broken, suggesting strong supply and short-term double top scenario.

3. Support, Resistance & Key Price Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $8.50 (intraday highs July 17–18), then $8.72 (July 8). Psychological resistance near round number at $9.00.
• Immediate Support: $7.55–$7.75 (July 3, 7, 8, 9 closes), then firmly at $6.80 (June 30 close, previously a gap-up level).
• Gap Below: If the $7.55–$7.95 support fails, high chance for price to test $7.10 and then possibly retrace toward $6.80 in short order, given the speed of recent climbs.

4. Volume Profile & Participation

• Volume peaked on every breakout move; recently, decreasing volume on latest advance ($8.48 test) suggests momentum is waning as price rises—a classical signal of potential short-term top.
• Large sellers have appeared above $8.20, shown by repeated failure to close above that level and persistent offering on large prints.

5. RSI, MACD & Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Estimate): Rapid advance from $4 to $8.7 in less than four weeks likely places daily RSI in the 75–80 zone (severely overbought). Even if not visually confirmed, the speed/velocity of ascent is unsustainable at this clip.
• MACD: Expected to be extended far above baseline, with histogram showing decreasing bullish momentum over the last 2–3 sessions—possible cross-under developing.
• Stochastics: Would almost certainly be overbought above 80, likely crossing down.

6. Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)

• Short-Term (9 – 21 EMA): Likely between $7.00–$7.30 (average of last 9 closes), which would act as first dynamic support zone.
• Medium-Term (50 SMA): Roughly $4.80–$5.20 given the sharp move, with a large gap to price that signals caution for late bulls.

7. Fibonacci Retracements: Recent Impulse ($6.27 → $8.72)

• 23.6% Retrace: $8.19
• 38.2% Retrace: $7.76
• 50% Retrace: $7.50
• 61.8% Retrace: $7.23
  • Interpretation: $7.75 and $7.50 are critical thresholds—failure here opens path toward deeper retrace.

8. Order Flow & Tape Reading

• Order Book Action: Intraday data from July 18, 19:00–21:00 indicates heavy hits on the bid at $8.00 and defending action below $8.00—buyers trying to hold, but sellers persistent.
• Lack of Follow-Through after new high prints signals profit-taking outweighs fresh buying.

9. Sentiment & Price Structure

• Market Psychology: Mania and FOMO likely as retail crowd continues to chase; however, exhaustion and mean-reversion are starting to show, with heavy volume engulfment and distribution at highs.

10. Synthesis & Prediction (Next 24 hours)

• Price is extended, showing exhaustion at $8.48–$8.50, with repeated failures to close above $8.20. Volume is rolling off, momentum waning.
• Nearest strong support zone is $7.55–$7.75; high probability the price will test these levels in the next 24 hours as part of a corrective move.
• Risk is skewed to the downside in the short-term as lateholders exit and early participants seek to lock in significant profits.
• If there is a reflex rally, it will meet supply again above $8.20–$8.38.

11. Risk-Reward and Trading Decision

• Optimal risk/reward is to be short near $7.95–$8.05 (current level and minor rebounds).
• Short-term target for covering (buy to close): $7.10, near the next powerful liquidity cluster and above the $61.8% retrace of the recent leg.
• Stop-loss for risk management: Place above recent highs ($8.55+).

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Conclusion: Sell (Short Position)

BBAI appears overextended after a rapid, speculative rally; waning momentum, lower volume into highs, and failed breakouts suggest a corrective retrace is likely. The optimal entry for new shorts is in the $7.95–$8.05 range with an initial price target near $7.10.