Compass Crash, Spring-Loaded Bounce: Targeting a Snapback to 8.55 Within 24 Hours

Snapshot and context

• Ticker: COMP (Compass, Inc.)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 7.92 (as of 2025-09-22 21:00 UTC)
• Today’s session (daily candle): O=8.61, H=8.97, L=7.69, C=7.92, Volume≈43.28M (massive vs recent 5–10M average)
• Intraday (hourly) path: Pre/early 9.4 → sharp gap-down drive to ~8.35 → midday grind lower → flush to 7.69 → rebound sequence of higher lows into the close (7.83 → 7.93 → 8.01)

Executive summary (thesis for next 24 hours)

• A textbook high-volume breakaway gap lower drove price well below the 20-day SMA, expanded ATR/volatility, and closed under key near-term supports. However, price also printed a capitulation-flush with a credible intraday reversal (sequence of higher lows into the close), closed outside the 20-day Bollinger lower band, and sits at/through deep Fibonacci retracement thresholds (78.6%+ of the Jul→Sep advance).
• These conditions statistically favor a reflexive mean-reversion bounce over the next 1 trading day toward 8.30–8.60, with 8.48–8.55 a high-probability magnet (Fibo 50% of the gap day range and supply shelf/VWAP region). Risk remains for another probe of 7.70–7.60 if the open is weak, but the intraday structure into the close gives bulls a slight tactical edge for a bounce first.
• Plan: Buy the early pullback near 7.90 with a tactical target at 8.55 within 24 hours.

Multi-timeframe price structure and trend

• Higher-timeframe (multi-month): From late May (~6.0) through early September (~9.7), COMP stair-stepped higher with rising swing highs and lows—an established medium-term uptrend.
• Near-term (last 3–4 weeks): Sideways-to-up consolidation around 9.0–9.6 with multiple failed attempts above 9.7. Today’s gap down breaks that range to the downside, shifting near-term trend from neutral/bullish to bearish.
• Intraday (today): After the gap, sellers pushed to 7.69, but the last 3–4 hours carved higher lows and stabilized near 8.00—first evidence of dip-buying and short covering.

Key levels (confluence map)

• Immediate supports: 7.80–7.90 (late-day base), 7.69 (today’s low, potential spring), 7.40–7.42 (daily S1 pivot zone), 7.20–7.25 (late July pivot)
• Immediate resistances: 8.19 (classic daily Pivot Point), 8.30–8.35 (intraday supply shelf), 8.48–8.55 (Fibo 50% of gap day range and supply/VWAP zone), 8.70 (R1 pivot), 8.78 (38.2% retrace Jul→Sep leg), 9.02–9.05 (gap-zone lower supply), 9.40 (full gap fill and recent closing supply)

Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day SMA: ≈9.25 (estimated from the last 20 closes). Price closed 1.33 below this—significant negative deviation indicating short-term downside acceleration and a high likelihood of mean reversion attempts.
• 50-day SMA: Estimated ~8.2–8.4 (midpoint of July–Sep closes). Today’s C=7.92 is modestly below this, signaling a short-term trend break but not yet a multi-month breakdown.
• Short MAs/EMAs (8/21-day, conceptual): Rapid bearish cross likely in progress post-gap; slope turning down. This typically creates a sell-the-rip regime but also tends to produce 1–2 day snapbacks toward the 8/21EMA cluster (often ~8.3–8.6 after such airpocket days).
• Regression channel (last 3 months): Price knifed below the lower band—another sign of short-term capitulation/overshoot.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely ≈25–30 (oversold). Breach below 30 on a single-day gap typically supports a reflex rally toward RSI mid-30s/low-40s over 1–3 sessions if no worsening news emerges.
• Hourly RSI(14): Progressed from severe oversold during the 7.69 flush to the mid-40s by the close, with higher lows in price—early bullish divergence vs. intraday momentum.
• Stochastics (daily): Deep oversold with a potential %K/%D cross in 1–2 sessions if price stabilizes above 7.8; hourly already crossed up into the close—supports a first-thing bounce.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish cross with negative histogram expansion—confirms the breakdown momentum. However, after large single-day shocks, MACD often lags ensuing 1–2 day snapbacks.
• Hourly MACD: Turned up late-day and approaching/breaching the zero-line—tactically bullish into the morning provided 7.90 holds on early dips.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (daily): Rising sharply; today’s true range 1.28 vs recent ~0.3–0.5 implies ATR expansion to roughly 0.55–0.70. Expect wide ranges; this supports the feasibility of a 0.50–0.70 upside swing in 24 hours.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Mid ≈9.25, lower ≈8.8–8.9 (est.). Close at 7.92 is well below the lower band—a statistically stretched condition. Historical tendency favors reversion back into the bands toward 8.3–8.6 within 1–2 sessions unless new negative catalysts persist.
• PercentB: ≪0, consistent with an oversold thrust.

Volume, flow, and breadth signals

• Volume: ~43M today vs ~5–12M typical—capitulation-scale turnover. Such spikes often mark either: (a) the start of a new down leg if follow-through selling persists, or (b) an exhaustion flush that precedes a reflex rally. The late-day stabilization tilts toward (b) in the immediate term.
• OBV (conceptual): Sharp single-day downtick; however, a strong bounce day could repair part of this quickly.
• Intraday VWAP: Anchored from the regular session open resides around the low-8s (≈8.15–8.25). Price closed just below; VWAP zones often act as magnets on the next day’s open, supporting a test toward 8.2–8.3.

Gaps and candlesticks

• Pattern: Breakaway gap down below the prior 9.2–9.4 value area; intraday candle set a long-range body with a modest lower wick and late-session base. Not a textbook hammer, but the intraday pattern of higher lows into the close is constructive for a day-2 bounce attempt.
• Gap dynamics: The session nearly probed toward a full gap-fill early (H=8.97) before heavy rejection. Gaps of this size often see staged fills: first into PP/VWAP (8.2–8.3), then perhaps into 8.5–8.7, with the full 9.4 fill less likely within 24 hours absent a strong catalyst.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Jul 30 swing low (~7.23) to Sep 5 swing high (~9.73): Range ~2.50.
  • 38.2%: 8.78
  • 50%: 8.48
  • 61.8%: 8.19
  • 78.6%: 7.77
• Today’s low 7.69 slightly undercuts the 78.6%—a classic “deep retrace”/spring look. First bounce targets: 8.19 (61.8%), then 8.48–8.55 (50%/supply confluence). R1 pivot at 8.70 marks the stretch goal for a strong snapback.

Pivot points (classic; using H=8.97, L=7.69, C=7.92)

• PP = (H + L + C)/3 ≈ 8.193
• R1 = 2*PP – L ≈ 8.697
• S1 = 2*PP – H ≈ 7.417
• R2 = PP + (H – L) ≈ 9.473
• S2 = PP – (H – L) ≈ 6.913 Interpretation: PP ≈ 8.19 is the first magnet; R1 ~8.70 is the ambitious intraday stretch if momentum snowballs. S1 ~7.42 is the risk zone on failed bounce attempts.

Ichimoku perspective (daily, conceptual)

• Price has sliced below Tenkan and Kijun; Chikou span likely entangled with price. Cloud (Kumo) from the summer uptrend probably sits around ~8.5–8.8 forward—now immediate overhead resistance. This configuration telegraphs a near-term bearish regime but is consistent with a rally-to-Kijun/Cloud test (8.4–8.8) before the next decision.

Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Elliott: The gap-and-flush reads like an A-wave or the culmination of an a-b-c corrective leg. Under this framing, a B-wave bounce toward 8.4–8.7 is plausible in the next 1–2 sessions.
• Wyckoff: Today resembles a potential “selling climax” (SC) followed by an automatic rally (AR) into the close; the next day often tests the low (ST) or forms a higher low before markup toward the AR level (8.2–8.6).

Market profile/value context (qualitative)

• Over the last month, the point of control (POC) likely clustered around 9.2–9.4; today’s break shifted price far below recent value, creating an inefficiency. Mean reversion typically seeks to rebalance toward nearer-term micro-value first (8.2–8.5) before confronting the heavy overhead supply around 9+.

Risk factors and what invalidates the bounce

• A weak open that instantly loses 7.90 and 7.80 increases odds of a fast retest of 7.69. A clean break-and-hold below 7.69 opens 7.40–7.20.
• If the first bounce stalls hard below 8.20 and momentum rolls over on 5–15min MACD/RSI, the day could devolve into a bear flag breakdown.
• Persistent heavy volume sell pressure at the open with VWAP capping price would argue for patience or even a fade setup instead of a long.

Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Reflex bounce to 8.30–8.55. Optimal target: 8.48–8.55 (Fibo 50% + supply/VWAP cluster).
• Bear continuation (≈25–30%): Early fade to undercut 7.69 toward 7.40–7.25 before stabilizing.
• Bull surprise (≈10–15%): Squeeze through 8.70 (R1), pushing 8.85–9.05. Full gap fill to 9.40 less likely within 24h but not impossible in an extreme squeeze.

Strategy synthesis and why a tactical Buy edges out a Short here

• Confluences for a bounce:
  • Close far outside lower Bollinger Band (mean reversion).
  • Daily RSI oversold with intraday bullish momentum turn.
  • Capitulation-scale volume with late-day higher lows.
  • Multiple magnets overhead: PP 8.19, prior intraday supply 8.30–8.35, Fibo 50% 8.48, R1 8.70.
  • ATR expansion supports the feasibility of a 0.50–0.70 up-move in a single session.
• Why not short immediately? Shorting after a capitulation flush has poor expectancy without a bounce first; better risk/reward short entries are higher (8.5–8.7) if the bounce stalls. For the next 24 hours, the path of least resistance tilts toward an initial bounce.

Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Buy a pullback toward 7.90 (limit bias). If the open gaps higher >8.15, consider a momentum entry on a shallow pullback toward VWAP with tight risk.
• Exit/Target: 8.55 (aligned with Fibo 50%/local supply). That captures the high-odds portion of a snapback without getting greedy into R1/Cloud resistance.
• Risk (context only): A logical protective level would sit below 7.69 (today’s low) to avoid getting trapped in a fresh breakdown; active scalpers might use ~7.78–7.80 if tape weakens. Not required by the prompt but prudent in practice.

Tools and techniques used (and their impact on the conclusion)

• Trend analysis: Shifted from consolidation to near-term bearish, but still within a medium-term uptrend corridor—supports snapback then reassessment.
• Moving averages (20/50 SMA; short EMAs): Overshoot below 20SMA and near/below 50SMA—ripe for mean reversion into the MA cluster.
• RSI/Stochastics: Oversold daily; intraday turn up—bullish for a 1-day bounce.
• MACD: Daily bearish (trend risk), hourly improving (tactical long).
• Bollinger Bands: Close well outside lower band—strong reversion signal.
• ATR/Volatility: Expansion allows a realistic 8.3–8.6 bounce range.
• Volume/OBV: Capitulation volume with late stabilization—often precedes a reflex rally.
• VWAP/Anchored VWAP: Next-day magnet around low-8s; reclaim favors 8.3–8.5.
• Fibonacci retracements: Deep retrace past 78.6% with bounce targets 61.8%/50% (8.19/8.48).
• Pivot points: PP 8.19 and R1 8.70 frame the bounce corridor; target below R1 is conservative.
• Ichimoku: Overhead cloud ~8.5–8.8 warns not to overstay long beyond 8.5–8.7 without confirmation.
• Wyckoff/Elliott: SC/AR/ST pattern potential and B-wave bounce framework favor a reflex up-leg first.

Bottom line

• Bias next 24 hours: Buy-the-dip for a snapback into 8.3–8.6.
• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Open near 7.90; target 8.55 within 24 hours. If price gaps and runs, adapt by buying a VWAP pullback with the same 8.55 target.