Denison Mines Corp (DNN) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis and Trade Plan

1. Trend Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)

Daily Trend

• DNN surged since late May, rallying from ~$1.45 to a post-FOMC high near $1.86 (June 16) followed by a correction to the $1.74 area.
• Previous resistance ($1.70–$1.80) was briefly cleared, but the latest two daily candles show long upper wicks and a lower close—indicative of near-term sellers.

Intraday (Hourly)

• Strong pop to $1.84 pre-market, then persistent selldown throughout June 20, closing at $1.74.
• Intraday volatility elevated: wide hourly spreads, multiple tests and rejections at $1.75 and $1.77.
• Price action from 13:30 onward shows failed bounce attempts above $1.75, suggesting supply absorption.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume climax observed on June 16–18 during the spike up; subsequent sessions saw high but declining volume, typical for exhaustion after a rally.
• Last few hours of June 20: several surges (e.g., 33M and 41M at 13:30–14:30) on declining prices > possible distribution.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance: $1.77–$1.84 (multiple failed retests intraday).
• Immediate support: $1.70 (hourly lows), then $1.62 and $1.60 (recent daily lows).
• Strong daily support: $1.60–$1.62 (breakout base, coincides with last major volume node).

4. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Double-top pattern developing intraday at $1.83–$1.84 zone.
• Lower highs and lower lows through the afternoon—short-term descending channel.
• Long-term pattern: Extended move, possibly overbought and in need of mean reversion.

5. Momentum Indicators (using derived logic)

• RSI (estimated): After such a rapid rise and recent stalling, RSI likely peaked above 70 and reverted to ~55–60 by close, signaling cooling bullish momentum.
• MACD (inferred from histogram of rising/flattening highs): Bullish momentum fading, but no strong bearish cross yet; risk of further downside.

6. Moving Averages (Simple logic, no direct overlays)

• 50-day MA likely near $1.62 zone; 20-day MA catching up near $1.68–$1.70.
• Price back into mean-reversion territory after sharp deviation.
• Current price under short-term MA, confirming loss of immediate upside.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• Move: $1.27 (April) to $1.90 (June) ≈ $0.63.
• Key Fib levels from $1.27:
  • 23.6%: ~$1.39
  • 38.2%: ~$1.52 (held in late May)
  • 50%: ~$1.58 (next candidate for pullback test)
  • 61.8%: ~$1.67 (currently being tested/lost)

8. Candlestick Analysis

• Recent daily stick is a bearish engulfing pattern after extended rally, suggesting a short-term reversal.
• Intraday hourly candles: Predominantly red; lower closes indicating persistent supply.

9. Market Psychology & Sentiment

• Crowd euphoria post-breakout likely unwinding; sharp upward move may have attracted late longs, who are now underwater and likely to add to selling pressure.
• Volume profile shows strong interest at $1.60–$1.70, suggesting mean reversion magnet zone. Retail and algos may exploit this air pocket.

10. Order Flow & Liquidity

• Sharp moves, especially with repeated testing of the same support ($1.73–$1.75), suggest liquidity now on the bid side.
• However, any sweep below $1.70 would trigger clustered stop-losses and enhance momentum for a further drop to $1.62–$1.65.

11. Statistical and Volatility Tools

• Recent daily ATR (average true range) expanded to above $0.10, indicating potential for a large $0.08–$0.12 move within 24 hours.
• Implied volatility is high, supporting the case for a dynamic, range-bound market, but with net downside skew for mean reversion.

12. Relative Strength vs Sector/Peers (Contextual)

• Uranium mining stocks have notably outperformed in recent weeks.
• DNN overextended vs. sector average, amplifying risk of sector rotation out of hot momentum names.

13. Confluence and Synthesis

• Multiple bearish signals converge:

  • Intraday lower highs after euphoria.
  • Bearish candlestick reversal signals.
  • Breakdown from local support with high volume.
  • Mean reversion/profit-taking likely to dominate next session.

• Downside risk dominates unless bulls recapture $1.78–$1.80 early in the next session.

14. 24-Hour Price Prediction

• Expect further sell pressure toward $1.68–$1.62, with high likelihood of spike lows to $1.60 if $1.70 fails early.
• Minor bounce attempts likely from oversold zones, but broader mean-reversion correction to $1.62 almost probable.

Conclusion

• The technical structure has turned bearish in the short term. The optimal strategy is a short (sell) position, targeting a move to retest the breakout and volume support near $1.62.
• Risk management: Initial stops placed above $1.78 (recent swing high) if executing the trade.

Actionable Decision:

• Open a short/sell position at $1.74 (current market price) or wait for a weak bounce to $1.75-$1.76 for higher risk-reward entry.
• Target profit (cover/close position): $1.62, matching the probable mean reversion and volume support zone.

[TRADE SUMMARY]

• Open Short: $1.74 (limit up to $1.75)
• Target: $1.62
• Stop-loss: $1.78 (optional; not in scope but recommended)