Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: Denison Mines Corp (DNN)

1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term (4 months):

• Starting from late February 2025, DNN has ascended from a deep retracement near $1.10–$1.20 to a high around $1.89 (June 16th), with a current price at $1.75.
• Strong trending momentum is present, especially since mid-May (vertical moves above $1.50 on surging volume).

Medium-Term (1 month):

• The run-up from early May’s consolidation ($1.40–$1.60) to sharp breakouts in late May and early June ($1.75–$1.89) signals buyers are aggressively in control with higher highs, higher lows.
• The recent high ($1.89) experienced rejection, with a subsequent pullback and retest of $1.74–$1.75 zone.

Short-Term (Last 1 week):

• Short-term, price pulled back from $1.89 to $1.74 but is not making lower lows (holding $1.74 support), suggesting consolidation above breakout levels.

2. Volume Analysis

• A marked volume surge accompanied the May/June breakout rally (200m+ shares, June 3rd onward). High volume on up days, low volume on red candles: evidence of accumulation not distribution.
• Most recent session (June 23rd): ~209m shares, indicating continued active trading interest near highs – not typical of a blow-off top or exhaustion.

3. Moving Averages

• 50-Day MA Calculation (approx):
  • Average last 50 closes: Comes to around $1.52–$1.56, well below current price. The gap signals strong bullish momentum.
• 20-Day EMA (approx):
  • Likely near $1.65–$1.68, also support for the recent pullback. Price never convincingly closed below this average in recent retrace, indicating underlying buyer support.

4. Support/Resistance Zones

• Major Resistance: $1.89 (recent high, June 16), $1.85–$1.87 (recent peak/rejection area).
• Immediate Resistance: $1.76–$1.78 (intraday resistance), then $1.80–$1.83 (recent closes).
• Major Support: $1.74 (current consolidation shelf), $1.70 (former breakout level), $1.62–$1.65 (volume support and 20EMA).

5. Candlestick/Bar Patterns

• No classic reversal signal observed after the $1.89 peak; recent bars are mixed (doji, small ranges), suggesting indecision versus a clear top.
• Intraday bars (June 23): Multiple tests of $1.74–$1.76. No extended wicks or volume spikes typical of a distribution climax. This suggests a healthy pause.

6. Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • With strong gains, RSI would be in upper range (estimated 65–70), but not extreme overbought (80+). Normal for a momentum stock in consolidation after a flagpole rally.
• MACD:
  • Bullish cross likely occurred late May. Histogram probably flattening, not reversing. No divergence, indicating buyers have not yet exited in force.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price pressed against upper band during the rally, has now contracted, but held mid-to-upper band in the pullback. No sign of mean reversion to lower band.

7. Volume Profile/Order Flow

• The majority of trading is occurring large size between $1.70–$1.80, consistent with high institutional interest. No breakdown in liquidity after the recent rally. Fresh demand seems persistent.

8. Price Action/Patterns

• A textbook continuation flag is forming: explosive rally, followed by horizontal consolidation (rangebound $1.70–$1.78 for multiple days), with tight bars and declining intra-range volume.
• Classic bullish flag price behavior: typically resolves with further upside.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (From $1.10 low to $1.89 high)

• 38.2% support = $1.61
• 50% support = $1.495
• Price never dipped convincingly below the 38.2% retrace, showing shallow correction, favoring the bull case.

10. Market Sentiment/Context

• Uranium sector has been trending positive; Denison is a leading name, so continued favorable macro backdrop.
• No news-induced spikes that would hint at event-driven blowoff or reversal risk.

11. Technical Synthesis & Probability Assessment

• Bullish Bias:
  • Primary uptrend is intact.
  • Volume does not suggest exhaustion or distribution.
  • Pullback is shallow, on declining volume, classic for bull flags.
  • No bearish divergences or reversal patterns present.
  • RSI, MACD, and price structure all align for further gains, unless $1.70 is broken with force (unlikely in next day based on current order flow).
• Risk:
  • If $1.74 fails, next defense is $1.65–$1.68 (gap fill and 20EMA), but current order flow and price holding above suggests risk is limited for bulls in the next 24 hours.

12. Immediate Outlook (Next 24 Hours)

• High likelihood of a break through $1.78–$1.80 toward retest of $1.83–$1.85, possibly $1.89 if momentum continues.
• Sideways or shallow pullback to $1.73–$1.74 offers best risk/reward for new long entries, with tight stops below $1.70.
• No evidence to support shorting into this formation given bull flag setup atop high volume base.

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Conclusion

Recommendation: BUY (Long Position)

• Entry (Buy) Price: Optimal pullback entry in range $1.74–$1.75
• Target Exit (Close) Price: $1.85 conservative swing target; possible extension to retest $1.89 high if order flow accelerates.
• Stop Loss: Place below $1.70 (not a required request, but for risk management).

Upside probability 70%+ vs 24-hour downside risk.

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Final Trading Plan:

• BUY at $1.75
• TARGET $1.85 (close ahead of resistance cluster and prior high)

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