FCX Capitulation at Multi‑Month Support: Setting Up a 24‑Hour Oversold Rebound

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Context: FCX printed a -16.9% gap-and-bleed session (prev close 45.36 → last 37.67) on extreme volume, finishing near the day’s low. Price knifed through all recent moving averages and set a new multi‑month low while tagging a major prior swing support from late May (≈37.7). Such a capitulative flush often produces a 1–2 day mean‑reversion bounce, though a morning undercut is common before the rebound.
• 24h Base case (≈55%): Early probe/undercut into 37.2–37.5, then oversold bounce toward 39.2–39.9 (38.2–61.8% intraday retrace zone).
• Bear case (≈30%): Trend-continuation spill below 37.2 toward 36.2–36.8 before stabilizing.
• Bull squeeze (≈15%): Strong gap‑up/squeeze through 39.7 → 40.2–40.8.
• Trading stance for next 24h: Tactical long for an oversold bounce, with tight risk and predefined exits.

Step-by-step technical analysis and tool-by-tool readout

1. Price action, structure, and levels

• Structure: A large breakaway gap down followed by a trend day lower (lower highs/lower lows through the session). Close near the low (Marubozu‑like) confirms strong intraday control by sellers, but the magnitude and volume signal potential capitulation.
• Key levels from the tape: • Today’s low/close cluster: 37.55–37.75 (after-hours prints at 37.75). This sits precisely on the 05/30 swing low area (≈37.73), a key multi‑month shelf. • Prior important lows: 39.14 (07/30). Now broken, so it becomes first overhead supply on any bounce. • Gap window/overhead supply: 39.2–40.2 (50–61.8% retrace of today’s drop; also intraday VWAP/resistance cluster). • Next downside supports if 37.5 breaks: 36.8 (round‑number/psych + measured move zone), then 36.2 (S1 from pivots; see below).

2. Volume, participation, and capitulation check

• Daily volume exploded (≈84.2M shares), several multiples of recent sessions, typical of a climax bar.
• Intraday volume remained elevated into the close with no material bounce. That is bearish into the close, but the scale of volume plus new lows often precedes an automatic rally (Wyckoff) within 1–2 sessions as weak hands are cleared.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20/50/100/200-day context (approximated from the series): Price had been consolidating 44–46, placing the 20D ≈44.7–45.0; 50D ≈43.5–44.0; 200D likely ≈42–43. Today’s collapse put price far below all trending averages.
• Interpretation: Strongly bearish trend state on a multi‑day basis. However, extremes vs MAs favor short‑term mean reversion.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Likely in the teens/low 20s after a -17% day. That’s deeply oversold.
• Stochastics: Buried sub‑20, signaling stretched downside; early turns often precede 1–3 bar bounces.
• MACD daily: Bearish cross long in place; today’s impulse widens the spread and drives histogram deeply negative. Momentum trend still down, but extreme prints often mark short-term exhaustion.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ballooned: Today’s true range (~4.33) is ≈3–4x the recent ATR, indicative of a volatility shock.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈44.8; lower band likely ≈42–42.5 pre‑shock. Price closed ≈4–5 pts below the lower band. Such 3–4σ excursions tend to mean‑revert toward the band within 1–2 sessions, even if the broader trend remains down.
• Keltner Channels: Price closed well outside the lower Keltner channel, another short‑term reversion signal.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily)

• Price far below the cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and both pointing down; lagging span below price and cloud. Ichimoku confirms dominant downtrend. However, distance from Kijun is extreme, increasing odds of a snapback toward the Tenkan/Kijun equilibrium in the next 1–2 sessions.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Use today’s high/low: H ≈41.99, L ≈37.67, range ≈4.32. • 38.2% retrace ≈ 37.67 + 0.382*4.32 ≈ 39.32. • 50% retrace ≈ 39.83. • 61.8% retrace ≈ 40.34.
• Confluence: 39.2–40.4 aligns with overhead supply and intraday VWAP resistance zone. Expect sellers to defend near 39.7–40.2 on first test.

8. Pivot points (classic, using 9/24 OHLC: H 41.99 / L 37.665 / C 37.67)

• P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 39.108.
• R1 ≈ 40.552; S1 ≈ 36.227; R2 ≈ 43.433; S2 ≈ 34.783.
• 24h expectation: Price likely oscillates between S1 and R1, with R1 (≈40.55) a stretch target if a strong squeeze develops. First magnet on bounce sits just below R1 (≈39.7–40.2 cluster).

9. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Intraday session VWAP (approx.) sits around the upper 39s (given the time-weighted distribution). Price closed materially below VWAP, increasing the likelihood of a next‑day reversion attempt toward VWAP if early supply thins.
• Anchored VWAP from the gap‑down open provides dynamic resistance in the high‑39s.

10. Market profile/Volume profile

• High-volume nodes built 44–46 over prior weeks (now overhead supply). Today created a fresh low‑volume pocket 40–42 and established a new lower distribution 37.7–39.2. Reversions often test the edge of the low‑volume pocket: 39.2–39.7.

11. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Today’s daily candle: Large red body closing near the low (bearish). In context with capitulation volume and a multi‑month support tag, it resembles a potential selling climax bar. “Climax + AR” logic would look for an Automatic Rally (bounce) within 1–2 sessions, followed by a Secondary Test.

12. Wyckoff lens

• Phase: Markdown with potential Climactic Action (SC) at 37.7 area. Expect an Automatic Rally (AR) toward 39.5–40.2, then a Secondary Test that decides whether 37.7 holds. This fits the 24h tactical long but medium‑term caution.

13. DeMark/Sequential (heuristic)

• After an extended down count, today likely completes or nears a 9/13 exhaustion print. Not precise without bar‑by‑bar, but the magnitude/close near lows often coincides with exhaustion signals → supports short-term bounce risk.

14. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• The gap‑impulse looks like a wave 3 within a larger corrective leg. A wave 4 counter‑trend bounce toward the 38.2–61.8% retrace (≈39.3–40.3) is consistent before another decision point.

15. Statistical mean reversion (Z‑score)

• Distance from 20D mean (~44.8) is ≈ -7.1 points or ~-1.6σ to -2.5σ depending on recent stdev; including today’s shock, intraday tail risk pushes beyond -3σ. Historically, such extremes tend to resolve with a 1–3 day mean‑reversion pop of 3–8%.

16. Correlation and beta context (qualitative)

• FCX is highly sensitive to copper and global risk sentiment. A one‑day 17% move implies a stock‑specific or commodity shock; even then, post‑shock bounces are frequent as the market re‑prices information. Within 24h, positioning/volatility mechanics can dominate fundamentals.

17. ADX/Trend strength

• ADX (daily) likely rising >25 post‑move, signaling a strong directional trend. However, ADX rising off an exhaustion day often coincides with volatility mean reversion in the very near term.

18. Donchian/Breakout channels

• New 20/55‑day low registered. Breakouts to new lows tend to follow through, but the first session after a capitulation often back‑tests the breakdown zone (≈39–40) before direction resumes.

19. Parabolic SAR (daily)

• SAR would be well above price; no buy flip. Reinforces that any long is tactical/mean‑reversion rather than trend‑following.

20. Risk management and scenario mapping

• Base path: Early dip/undercut 37.2–37.5, then push to 39.3–39.9. Profit‑take into 39.7 where fib/VWAP/pivot confluence sits.
• If gap‑up >38.6 at the open: Expect sellers near 39.2–39.7; still room to scale out into that zone.
• Invalidation: Sustained breakdown below 37.1 (multiple 15‑min closes) opens 36.2–36.8. For a long, a hard stop should reside just below 37.0 to respect the bear continuation risk.

Synthesis and 24h prediction

• Despite a dominant bearish trend shift, the combination of: extreme downside extension vs MAs and bands, capitulation‑scale volume at a multi‑month support shelf, and well‑defined retrace targets directly above → favors a tactical oversold bounce within 24 hours, likely after a morning probe lower. Expect a 3–6% rebound window into 39.3–39.9 before stalling.

Trading plan (tactical, next 24h)

• Bias: Buy the exhaustion flush for a mean‑reversion bounce.
• Entry: Use a limit near 37.6 (between AH 37.75 and session low 37.55) to position into a possible early undercut.
• Target (take profit): 39.7 (near 50% retrace and below R1), with allowance to scale in 39.2–39.7 if partials are preferred.
• Contingency: If price tears higher without dipping, avoid chasing above 39; risk/reward degrades quickly into 39.7–40.2 resistance.
• Risk: Place a protective stop under 37.0 (not required by prompt, but prudent) given S1 at 36.23 and bear‑continuation risk.

Conclusion

• Expect an oversold rebound attempt within 24h. Tactical long favored with tight risk and profit‑taking queued in the 39.3–39.9 zone.