Figma, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

FIGMA Stock’s Wild IPO Day: Parabolic Surge Sets Up High-Probability Short Opportunity

Symbol: FIG
Current Price: $115.50
Date: July 31, 2025
Intraday Ranges and Volume: Large volume at open, extraordinary volatility: Low $84.11 to High $124.63, closing $115.5.
Recent Hourly Candles:
- 17:30: Huge jump at open ($93.5→$102.79, volume 28M+)
- Next hours: Strong momentum upside, high volatility.
- 20:00: Spiked as high as $127 on comparatively lighter volume (196K), last trade $125.43 before apparent halt/market close (next candle at 21:00:00 reports only $125.43, no movement/volume).

Opening Gap: Dark pool/premarket action began at $33 (pre-market, probably IPO/opening reference price), then no data until the opening auction at $93.5 at 17:30, indicating a massive opening gap.
Volatility Analysis: Extreme opening volatility reflects new issue or major event (likely IPO). First hour price range: ~$93.30 low to $116.38 high ($23 range; +25%).
Momentum: Every sequential candle closes higher until the last hour, culminating in the $115–$127 zone.
Wick Analysis: At 20:00, the wick $127→$109.82 suggests strong resistance and intraday blow-off top or profit taking at $127, followed by a close well below the high ($125.43), indicating exhaustion.
Volume Analysis:
- 17:30: Enormous institutional activity (28M shares), bulk of trading at open.
- 18:30: Volume normalizes (13M), prices stabilize.
- 19:30: Spot volume declines, price still climbs.
- 20:00: Small volume, high volatility (likely latecomers, retail chasing).

Not enough intraday data for robust 20-period EMA, but price momentum is clear: sharp exponential ascent; unsustainable in short-term.
Recent closing prices: $33 → $102.79 → $109.48 → $116.30 → $125.43
"Parabolic Move": Following such trajectory, a mean reversion is statistically probable in the coming 24h.

Based on price action, "RSI equivalent" is extremely overbought (>80) due to sharp upsurge and closing at/near daily highs.
Such strong moves usually see pullbacks as traders/operators lock in profits.

Range: $84.11 (low) to $127 (high)
Key retracement levels (from $127 peak):
- 38.2%: $112.38
- 50%: $105.56
- 61.8%: $98.73
Current price at $115.5 sits just above 38.2%, suggesting potential for correction but strong buyers above $112.

Support:
- $109.50 (minor, 19:30 close)
- $102.79 (18:30 close; volume node)
- $93.30 (opening auction low, major psychological support)
Resistance:
- $124.63/$127 (intraday highs, climax top)
- $125.43 (current/last close, supply overhead)

Most volume transacted between $93–$116. Institutions likely building/rotating positions here.
Last move to $127 on much lower volume: typical sign of buyers exhausting.

20:00–21:00: Long upper wick ($127→$109.82), suggests fakeout breakout; close below high reflects profit-taking.
Price stalling at overhead resistance after vertical move is classic "shooting star"/"exhaustion gap" setup for reversal.

Expected daily range: $40+ (from $84–$127 in one session). Such volatility is not sustainable; typically leads to mean reversion after initial impulse.

IPO/first day: often subject to considerable profit-taking post-opening surge, especially after a near 400% day.
"Hot IPO burn-off": Early profit taking and volatility shake out weak hands; typically, price will retrace towards volume-weighted average price (VWAP) area or lower Fibonacci zones.

Short-term overextension: FIG has been driven up by aggressive momentum chasing, with signs of exhaustion at the highs.
High probability of pullback: Mean reversion towards the $110–$105 zone is statistically likely over the next 24 hours as early buyers look to take profits and volatility cools.
Risk/Reward Consideration: Shorting into the strength at current price ($115.5–$116), partial cover at $110 (38.2%) and major cover near $105 (50% fib, volume support).

Overall, the optimal trade is a cautious short (Sell) at current levels, with profit-taking near the key support bands.