Figma, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

Gap-Down Gravity: Shorting FIG’s Bear-Flag Pop Toward a $50–52 Flush

Comprehensive, step-by-step technical walkthrough for FIG over the next 24 hours

Regime: Strong downtrend. Daily closes have stair-stepped lower from 115.50 (7/31) to 54.56 (9/4), with brief countertrend rallies. The latest session was a large breakaway gap down with a close near the lows—bearish continuation profile.
Multi-timeframe bias:
- Daily: Lower highs and lower lows; major support levels repeatedly broken (69–71 zone, then 65–68). Close near the session low after a gap suggests follow-through risk.
- Hourly (9/4): Opening flush to 53.20, mid-day bear-flag consolidation 55.8–56.2, late-day roll-over to 54.5. Successive lower highs (57.35 → ~56.11 → ~55.75 → 55.27 → 54.70) show persistent supply.

Breakaway gap: Prior close 68.13 to today’s open 55.90 (-17.99%). High relative volume (28.9M vs prior daily 3–8M) indicates a decisive information-driven repricing.
Candle quality: Wide real body and close near the low (54.56 vs low 53.20) with no hammer-like recovery. This is not an exhaustion candle; it supports the probability of day-2 continuation.

Immediate resistance: 55.6–56.2 (intraday VWAP/supply; bear-flag pivot), 57.35 (session high), 58.5–58.8 (premarket supply cluster).
Immediate supports: 53.2 (today’s low), 52.0 (minor round), 50.0 (major psychological level and likely liquidity pool).
Gap window top: 68.13—far overhead, irrelevant for a 24h horizon but highlights how far the price is below prior value.

5-day SMA ≈ 65.56; price 54.56 is ~-16.8% below.
10-day SMA ≈ 69.03; price is ~-20.9% below.
20-day SMA (approx) is in the upper 70s; price is dramatically extended below. This confirms a powerful trend and also a potential for short-term mean reversion pops that are sold into.

RSI(14) estimate ≈ 29 (oversold). Calculation path: prior 14-period averages produce RS ≈ 0.416, RSI ≈ 29.4 after today’s -13.57. Oversold increases bounce risk, but oversold can persist in breakaway moves.
MACD (qualitative): Fast MA well below slow MA and both sloping down; histogram likely negative and widening—bearish momentum dominance.
Stochastics (qualitative): Likely sub-20 and embedded; in strong trends this remains pinned and continuation can outpace mean-reversion signals.

True range today: 57.35 – 53.20 = 4.15 (~7.6% of price). Recent daily ranges and consecutive outsized moves imply ATR(14) near 4–5.
1-day expected move (ATR-proxy): ±4.5–5.0 around 54.6 → range band roughly 50–59 for the next session, skewed lower due to trend and close near the lows.

Intraday VWAP: Weighted by the heavy first two hours, sits approximately in the 55.5–55.9 band. Price closed below VWAP; every rebound to VWAP was sold. VWAP rejection + heavy relative volume = institutional distribution.
OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Net distribution day; down-volume dominated, pointing to supply overwhelming demand.

Bear flag (intraday): Post-open flush, then tight upward-to-sideways channel into 55.8–56.2, then breakdown—textbook continuation.
No bullish reversal signal (no hammer, no bullish engulfing, no morning star). The structure supports sell-the-rip setups rather than knife-catching longs.

Price is well below the 20-day SMA and likely outside the lower Bollinger band. Keltner channels (EMA20 ± 1–1.5 ATR) also likely breached. In isolation this argues for mean-reversion, but within a breakaway gap context it often produces only shallow reflex rallies that meet supply near VWAP/flag highs.

Today’s swing: low 53.2 to high 57.35. If price bounces, common retraces from the down-move into the close place resistance near:
- 38.2% (of the intraday drop from high to low) measured from low ≈ 55.74
- 50% ≈ 55.78 to 55.9 zone is a cluster with VWAP
- 61.8% ≈ 56.83 (stretch target if a stronger pop) This creates a resistance band 55.6–56.8 with confluence.

Price well below Tenkan/Kijun; cloud far overhead. Extremely bearish configuration. A mean-reversion to Tenkan is possible later, but the current distance is symptomatic of trend acceleration.

Rapid impulsive leg likely in progress (potential wave 3-type behavior) post-breakaway. After a small wave-4 style pause (bear flag), continuation lower is typical before a more material corrective bounce.

Air pocket below the 65–70 high-volume node; with little recent acceptance in the 50s, price often probes to the next psychological/liquidity magnet at 50 before discovering stronger demand. Expect stop runs under 53.2 to accelerate toward 51–50.5.

Base case (≈60%): Early relief pop into 55.6–56.2 (VWAP/flag top), sellers reassert, break 53.2, impulse to 51–51.5. Close in the low-51s to low-52s.
Alternate bear acceleration (≈20%): Minimal pop, swift break of 53.2 at/near the open, trend day down to test 50.0.
Bullish squeeze risk (≈20%): If price reclaims and holds above 56.8–57.4, shorts can be squeezed toward 58.5; this would likely require a news catalyst or strong market beta.

Shorting a bounce to the 55.6–56.2 supply zone offers favorable R:R targeting 51–52 with a protective stop above 57.8–58.2 (beyond flag/VWAP and hourly highs). With an entry 55.6, target 51.2 yields ~4.4 points reward; stop ~2.2–2.6 points risk → R:R about 1.7–2.0:1, acceptable for a day swing.

Despite oversold RSI, the structure (breakaway gap, close near low, VWAP rejection, bear-flag breakdown, heavy distribution volume) favors continuation lower before any durable bounce. The highest-probability tactical play over the next 24 hours is Sell-the-rip into 55.6–56.2, targeting a flush through 53.2 toward 51–50.5.

24-hour price path projection