Structure Therapeutics Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

GPCR’s 100% Breakout: Second‑Day Playbook — Buy the 61.8% Pullback for a Pop Toward 76

Executive summary

GPCR just printed a +100% gap-and-run day with an extreme range (H: 94.90, L: 44.74, C: 69.98) and record volume (~19.35M). The session included a blow‑off high, a deep pullback to the 61.8% retracement zone, and a strong mid‑day bounce. Price closed near the classic pivot/50% retracement and below intraday VWAP, setting up a textbook second‑day trade around key Fibonacci and VWAP levels.

Daily context Aug–Nov: Established uptrend from teens to mid‑30s, consolidation in the 32–36 zone, brief breakout to 40.29 (Nov 19), pullback to 31.98 (Dec 2), then reset around 34–35.
Dec 8 session (catalyst day): Open 45.33, immediate vertical impulse to 94.90, subsequent distribution and retracement to 63–66, followed by a bounce to ~75.74, and a late-day coil 68–71. Close 69.98. Candle shows a very long upper wick (supply overhead) but a sizable real body, signaling both strong demand and profit‑taking.
Intraday sequence (key prints): • 14:30 bar: 10.21M shares, close ~74.19 after the spike to 94.90 (volume climax). • Pullback low zone: 63.45 (just below the 61.8% retracement at ~63.90). • Rebound high: 75.74 (~38.2% retracement from the high, classic reaction level). • Final hour: 68.6–70.8 chop; last trades dipped ~66.2 before session end, while the day’s official close printed 69.98.
Takeaway: The market accepted price around the 50% retracement and classic pivot, with high‑volume nodes forming near 70 and 74, and a value shelf near 66–68.

Relative volume: Off-the-charts versus prior month; institutional footprints likely. The opening impulse bar accounts for ~53% of total day volume.
Intraday VWAP (approx): ~71.9 (weighted by the main regular‑hours bars). Price into the close traded below VWAP, indicating late-session supply. VWAP and the 38.2% retracement (75.74) are overhead magnets/resistance for any squeeze.
Volume profile (session HVNs/LVNs): • HVNs: ~74 and ~70 (price/volume agreement, likely magnets on the next session). • LVN: ~63–65 (thin liquidity area that price traversed quickly; expect fast moves if revisited).

Range: 50.16.
38.2% retracement: 94.90 − 0.382*50.16 ≈ 75.74 (intraday rebound high aligned here).
50% retracement: 69.82 (close and central pivot P ~69.87 cluster here).
61.8% retracement: 63.90 (intraday low ~63.45 pierced slightly and reclaimed). This is the key buy-the-dip zone.

Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 69.87 (nearly identical to 50% Fib; powerful confluence).
R1/S1 are distorted due to the outsized range, but P remains relevant intraday as a balance point.

10/20/50/200-day MAs are far below current price (~mid‑30s or lower), confirming a regime change to an extreme momentum state but also indicating large mean‑reversion risk.
Moving average ribbon is now positively stacked on any intraday lookback; daily is hyper‑extended.

RSI (daily) is very likely >80 after a +100% session (overbought). However, in momentum regimes, overbought can persist.
MACD (daily) turned sharply positive; early negative divergences may appear on intraday timeframes if price retests 75–78 with lower momentum.
Stochastics intraday cycled from overbought to neutral on the pullback; room exists for another leg up if 66–68 holds as value.

ATR exploded versus prior ATR (~2–3 pre‑move). Effective session ATR was ~30–40 given the 50‑point range. Expect a compressed but still very wide second‑day range (~12–18 points typical after such a spike).
Expected next‑24h range: 63.5–78.5, with magnet levels at 69.8–71.9 and 74–76.

Price is massively outside the upper daily Bollinger Band; second‑day consolidation is statistically favored. A reversion to the band expansion axis (roughly the 60s–low 70s) is consistent with the close near P and below VWAP.

Price is far above cloud; chikou span will be above price for weeks. Conversion/base lines are far below. In such thrusts, pullbacks toward intraday VWAPs, not daily bases, are the tactical buy zones.

Day 1 shows Automatic Rally (AR) and a Secondary Test (ST) around 63–66, followed by a Sign of Strength (SOS) attempt to ~76 and an Upthrust-type failure under VWAP late. For Day 2, a shakeout into 66–68 followed by absorption and a push back toward 74–76 is a high‑probability path if demand remains.

Intraday regression fit of the afternoon coil centers near ~69–70 with ±4–5 point deviations. A Z‑score > +3 was hit at the session high; late‑day prints were around −1 to −1.5, typical for post‑climax digestion.

Support: 63.4–64.0 (61.8% Fib + intraday low), then 66.2 (late print), 68.6 (micro shelf).
Balance/Magnet: 69.8–71.9 (50% Fib/Pivot/VWAP zone).
Resistance: 74.0–76.0 (HVN + 38.2% Fib), then 80–82 (air pocket toward prior impulse), with extreme at 90–95 (blow‑off supply).

Base case (55%): Early dip/flush into 66–68, buyers step in at/above 61.8% Fib, push back through VWAP 71–72, and probe 74–76. Likely end‑of‑day settle ~72–74.
Bear case (35%): Fail to reclaim VWAP; repeated rejections near 70–72 lead to a drift toward 64–66; limited break under 63.5 likely finds responsive buyers given Day‑1 volume node just above.
Squeeze case (10%): Strong premarket bid, swift reclaim of 74–76, continuation toward 80–82; risk of quick failure back to VWAP if momentum stalls.

Tactic: Buy the 61.8%–to‑VWAP pullback zone. The cleanest risk‑defined entry is a limit near 66.8 (between late print 66.2 and 61.8% Fib 63.9), seeking a move back to the 74–76 resistance shelf (first test of 38.2% retracement and prior rebound high). This aligns with the typical “second‑day play” after a catalyst blow‑off: buy the deep pullback toward golden ratio, sell into first major resistance/HVN.
Stop (for risk framing, not part of the order output): 63.2 (below Fib 61.8% and intraday low 63.45), to avoid getting trapped if value shifts lower.
Target: 75.7 (prior reaction high/38.2% Fib). That’s ~+8.9 on ~3.6 risk ≈ 2.5R.
Alternate add/scale: If price reclaims and holds above 71.9 (anchored VWAP) with rising volume, adds on pullbacks to 71–72 are viable, still targeting 74–76.

Premarket re‑pricing: If premarket holds >72, the dip may be shallower; if it opens <66, expect a swift test of 64 and a snapback attempt.
Rejection cues: Multiple rejections at 71.9–72.5 with rising supply would favor a patient bid lower (65–66) or a tactical fade setup instead.
Liquidity/halts: Wide spreads possible; use limit orders.

Price outlook (24h)

Expected intraday path: Early shakeout 66–68, VWAP reclaim to ~71–72, test 74–76. Projected range 63.5–78.5 and likely close in 72–74 if the VWAP is reclaimed and held.

Decision

Bias: Buy the pullback. The confluence of 61.8% Fib, prior low, and HVN just below provides a defined risk area, while the 74–76 HVN/38.2% Fib offers a clear target.

Open and close levels