INTC: Fade the Bounce — Short 20.30 Supply, Target 19.50 Within One Session

Instrument: Intel Corporation (INTC) — USD Timeframe analyzed: Daily bars (Apr 11, 2025 to Aug 8, 2025) with current price 19.95 Horizon: Next 24 hours (next trading session)

Executive view

• Directional bias: Bearish into supply on any early bounce
• Rationale: Strong downtrend post-earnings gap with heavy distribution volume; price remains below key moving averages and under unfilled gap resistance. Momentum is oversold but bounces have been weak and sold quickly. Expect an early mean-reversion pop to fade.
• Trade idea: Sell strength near 20.30 with target back to 19.50

Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Regime shift: A large breakaway gap down on 2025-07-25 (close prior day 22.63 to open 20.68) on extreme volume (245M) marked a decisive downside regime change. Subsequent rallies failed below layered resistance, confirming supply overhead.
• Swing sequence: Lower highs (20.68 on 07-28, 20.41 on 08-06) and marginally lower lows (19.31 close on 08-01; 18.97 intraday on 08-01) define a bearish channel. The last three sessions show an inside day contraction (08-08 inside 08-07), typically a pause before trend continuation.
• Support-resistance map (confluence):
  • Resistance: 20.11 (Pivot R1), 20.27 (R2), 20.30–20.40 (recent supply shelf), 20.52 (R3/upper pivot), 20.90–21.00 (Fib 38.2% of 24.04→18.97 and a sticky psychological level), 21.49–21.65 prior distribution band
  • Support: 19.70 (S1), 19.45 (S2), 19.29 (S3), 19.30 close pivot low (08-01), 18.97 swing low (08-01)
• Pattern context: Descending triangle compression against 19.5–19.7 support with lower swing highs. The 07-25 gap remains unfilled; such gaps often act as magnets only after base-building, which is not yet evident.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 10-day SMA ≈ 20.04: Price 19.95 is modestly below; micro-bias slightly bearish.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 21.42: Price is well below; medium trend bearish. Mean-reversion vector favors rallies toward the 20SMA being sold.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 21.7–21.9 based on May–July closes: Price well below; confirms broader downtrend.
• EMA stack inference: 9EMA ~20.0 and 21EMA ~21.0 lie above price; bearish stack persists.
• Ichimoku (qualitative): Price below cloud, Tenkan and Kijun sloped down, lagging span under price and cloud — bearish state; rallies likely capped beneath Kijun cluster near 20.6–21.0.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) calculation: Using last 14 closes yields Avg Gain ≈ 0.109, Avg Loss ≈ 0.344, RS ≈ 0.318, RSI ≈ 24. Oversold, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends; typically signals weak bounces into resistance rather than durable reversals.
• Stochastic Oscillator (qualitative): %K likely near 25–35 and curling; room for a small early-session pop before rejoining trend.
• Williams %R (qualitative): Deep in negative territory, consistent with near-lower-band closes; supportive of fade-the-bounce setups.
• MACD (qualitative): MACD line below signal and zero; histogram has been negative with minor contraction on 08-08, hinting at a possible shallow countertrend bounce that is usually sold under current regime.
• ADX/DI (qualitative): Post-gap directional move and repeated lower highs imply ADX elevated around mid-20s to low-30s; -DI above +DI — trend strength still meaningful.

Volatility and range framework

• ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.80–0.90. Expect intraday travel distance near 0.8. That supports a tactical entry near resistance with a 0.7–0.9 downside target within one session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): 20SMA ≈ 21.42, band width wide with lower band around ≈ 19.4–19.5. Current price 19.95 sits just above lower band; the typical behavior in downtrends is grind along the lower band with brief reversion toward the midline failing well before it.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 2xATR): Price hovering between lower Keltner and midline suggests downward volatility channel still intact; rallies toward the midline (≈ 20.6–21.0) have failed quickly.
• Donchian Channels (20): Upper ~23.79, lower 18.97; price in lower quartile, reinforcing bearish pressure with occasional snapbacks.

Volume and money flow

• Volume asymmetry: Down days carry markedly higher volume (07-25: 245M; 08-07: 131M) vs up-day volumes. This is classic distribution.
• OBV/AD line (qualitative): Both would be trending down given the heavy-volume declines and lighter-volume upticks; confirms net outflow.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Likely negative due to closes near lows on high-volume down days; supports sell-the-rip bias.

Gap, candle, and micro-structure signals

• Breakaway gap (07-25) remains open; gap topside 22.63 is far above and is an important cap for medium-term bounces.
• Candlesticks: 08-08 printed a small-body inside day (H 20.02, L 19.61) after a large red day 08-07, indicating energy compression. Breaks from inside days tend to follow the prevailing trend unless a strong catalyst intervenes.
• Pivot levels (from 08-08 H/L/C): P=19.86, R1=20.11, R2=20.27, R3=20.52; S1=19.70, S2=19.45, S3=19.29. This aligns precisely with the intended short entry zone and downside objective.

Fibonacci analysis

• Swing high 24.04 (07-10) to swing low 18.97 (08-01):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 20.91
  • 50% ≈ 21.51
  • 61.8% ≈ 22.10 Price failed to reach even the 38.2% level on the recent bounce, reflecting weak demand. That suggests rallies toward 20.9–21.0 are high-probability sell zones if reached.
• Measured move symmetry: Decline 20.68 → 19.31 was ≈ 1.37. Projecting from the 08-06 pivot 20.41 gives ≈ 19.04 — near the 08-01 intraday low, adding confluence to the 19.0 area as an extension target should 19.30 break.

Elliott wave lens (tactical)

• Post-gap impulsive leg (wave 3) likely occurred into late July; recent upticks resemble a shallow wave-4 corrective bounce. A final wave-5 probe to retest 19.0–18.9 remains plausible before a larger base attempt.

Relative strength and context

• Relative to its own May–July range, INTC is underperforming its prior highs and cannot reclaim breakdown zones around 20.6–21.0. This internal relative weakness (versus its own history) is sufficient for a tactical short even without external index signals.

Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Early-session mean-reversion pop toward R1/R2 (20.11–20.27), possibly wicking into 20.30–20.40 supply. Sellers defend, price rolls over toward S1/S2 (19.70–19.45). Close in the 19.5–19.8 zone.
• Bull alternate (≈25%): Squeeze through R2 and R3 to 20.52; without follow-through above 20.60–20.90, broader trend remains down. This would be a better level to add/enter shorts, but probability within one session appears lower absent news.
• Bear acceleration (≈15%): Direct break of 19.70 off the open, continuation through 19.45 toward 19.30, with extension wicks near 19.1–18.9 if liquidity thins. Given inside-day energy, a directional break has potential, but primary expectation is a pop-then-fade.

Risk management and execution plan

• Trade structure: Short on strength, not weakness, to maximize reward-to-risk.
• Entry: Limit sell around 20.30 (confluence of R2 zone extension and recent supply shelf 20.20–20.40). If a fast tape prints 20.27–20.35, scale-in is reasonable (not required by this plan but acknowledged).
• Stop (operational guidance): 20.65–20.70 above R3 and above the 08-06 pivot failure, respecting ATR. This keeps the stop outside noise and traps breakouts only if structure genuinely changes.
• Take profit: 19.50 (near S2/S3 cluster and prior pivot shelf). This captures ≈ 0.80 vs ≈ 0.35 risk (if using a 20.65 stop), a reward-to-risk > 2:1.
• Time stop: If price fails to trigger or fades without reaching 20.20 within first half of session, reassess; an alternative entry on a weak bounce to 20.11–20.20 may be acceptable with adjusted stop and slightly lower expectancy.

Why not buy the dip?

• While RSI is oversold and a bounce is possible, the pattern of weak retracements, heavy distribution volume, and unfilled gap overhead suggests bounces are better used to establish shorts rather than initiate longs for a 1-session horizon. Long setups likely cap near 20.20–20.40 with unfavorable reward-to-risk given nearby overhead resistance.

Probability-weighted expectation

• Net path: Modest early bid to 20.2–20.3, then sellers reassert toward 19.6–19.5 by day’s end. Volatility within ATR implies the 0.8 move is feasible in one session without requiring a trend day.

Conclusion

• Bias: Sell on strength
• Tactical edge: Confluence of pivot R2, supply shelf, descending trendline touch, and oversold-relief bounce provides a high-quality short entry near 20.30. Targeting 19.50 aligns with S2/S3 and prior reaction levels, capturing the likely fade within the next session.