Intel Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

Intel’s Pop Rejected: Short the 21 Zone for a Fade to 20.20–20.05

Step-by-step multi-technique technical analysis for INTC over the next 24 hours

Regime: Since mid-July, price has transitioned from a 23–24 range into a post-earnings gap-down regime (7/24–7/25) with persistent supply overhead. This defines a short-term bearish-to-sideways market structure.
Key event day: 2025-07-25 volume 245M shares on a large gap-down to the 20–21 zone created a high-supply overhead shelf. Subsequent rallies have stalled below 21.6–22.0.
Today (2025-08-11) intraday: Opened 20.44, squeezed to 21.595 by 14:30 UTC, then faded to close 20.65 with a long upper wick. This is a classic intraday buying-climax/failed breakout signature.

Daily candle 2025-08-11: Small real body near the lows with a very long upper shadow (high 21.595, close 20.65). This resembles a shooting star/inverted hammer at resistance, signaling supply absorption and likely mean reversion lower in the next session.
Intraday micro-structure: After the early push to 21.59, subsequent hours printed lower highs and a close back near session lows, implying sellers controlled the latter half of the session. Failed retest attempts near 21.10–21.23 further confirm supply.

Overhead supply: 21.05–21.35 (confluent: intraday 38–50% retrace of today’s drop, prior breakdown pivot, and 8/11 rejection zone). Stronger resistance 21.50–21.60 (today’s spike high) and 21.9–22.0 (prior shelf).
Immediate supports: 20.50–20.55 (recent HVN), 20.20–20.25 (pivot S1 calc and Fibonacci 61.8% of the 19.31→21.595 swing), and 19.95–20.05 (round-number and May/June pivot cluster). Deeper support 19.55–19.80 (late-July/early-Aug lows).

Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 20.895
R1 = 2P − L ≈ 21.35; R2 = P + (H−L) ≈ 22.05
S1 = 2P − H ≈ 20.20; S2 = P − (H−L) ≈ 19.74 Interpretation: Price closed below P; a pop toward P/R1 is sellable, with S1 ≈ 20.20 a natural magnet/target over the next session.

5-day SMA ≈ 20.19 (rising modestly)
10-day SMA ≈ 20.03 (flat to slightly rising)
20-day SMA ≈ 21.29 (declining) Interpretation: Short-term momentum is trying to stabilize above 20, but price remains below the declining 20-day SMA, preserving a bearish medium-term bias. The 5>10 but both <20-day structure describes a weak bounce inside a broader downtrend—typically a rally to sell.

RSI(14) daily (approx.) mid-40s to high-40s: below neutral 50, consistent with a weak trend. The intraday spike to 21.6 likely pushed short-term RSI overbought, followed by a bearish momentum roll-over.
Stochastics (fast/slow) intraday: likely crossed down from overbought after the 14:30 high, aligning with the late-session fade.
MACD daily: below zero line, with histogram contracting after today’s reversal—suggests the counter-trend bounce is losing steam within a negative momentum regime.

Today’s true range ≈ 1.155 (21.595–20.44) — an ATR expansion day. Post-expansion sessions tend to mean-revert toward pivot levels (P ≈ 20.895) and then test S1 if sellers remain active; the close below P increases odds of S1 test.
Expected 1-day ATR (approx.) 0.70–0.90. A move from a 20.9–21.1 entry toward 20.1–20.3 fits within 1–1.2x ATR, plausible within 24 hours.

Basis ≈ 20-day SMA ≈ 21.29, bands roughly ±1.0–1.1.
Current close 20.65 lies below the basis but not at the lower band—room exists to drift toward 20.1–20.2 without band violation, i.e., a controlled downside probe rather than a crash scenario.

Swing: 2025-08-01 low 19.31 to 2025-08-11 high 21.595 (range 2.285)
- 38.2% retrace ≈ 20.72
- 50% retrace ≈ 20.45
- 61.8% retrace ≈ 20.18 Interpretation: Close at 20.65 sits between 38.2% and 50%. Given the reversal candle, a continuation toward the 61.8% cluster near 20.18 is statistically probable; sub-20.2 prints could overshoot to 20.05–20.10, matching S1 and prior demand zone.

Price below the daily Kumo; Tenkan likely below Kijun; future Kumo flat-to-down.
Kijun resistance often sits near equilibrium around 20.9–21.1; rallies into that band tend to be rejected in bearish regimes. Chikou below price/cloud supports the bearish bias.

Distribution day profile: 8/11 total volume ~169M shares with a late-day fade—typical of supply absorbing a breakout attempt.
Volume-at-price (composite since 7/25): HVN around 20.5–20.7; LVN 20.9–21.1. Price tends to traverse LVNs quickly and stall at HVNs. A pop into 20.95–21.10 is a low-liquidity pocket ripe for fade entries, with the magnet back to the HVN at 20.5–20.7 and then to S1 20.2.
On-Balance Volume (qualitative) has not recovered the 7/24–7/25 damage; repeated rallies on lower OBV highs confirm distribution.

Session VWAP (8/11) likely sat near 21.0 intraday; late-day trade below VWAP and failure to reclaim it into the close signal weak hands into tomorrow’s open.
Anchored VWAP from the 7/25 gap-down often resides near 20.9–21.1 (given that day’s price/volume skew), reinforcing the sell-the-pop zone.

From 8/1 low (~19.31), a three-leg corrective advance (A–B–C) likely culminated at today’s 21.595, with an intraday exhaustion gap/run. The late fade suggests that was a wave C termination; next is a downward corrective phase toward the 0.618 retracement (~20.18) or even 0.786 (~19.80) on a stronger risk-off tape.

Shooting star at resistance, failed breakout, and a lower close relative to pivot—these patterns historically bias a 1–2 session pullback. Confluence with pivot S1 and 61.8% Fib at ~20.18 strengthens downside targets.

Base case (≈60–65%): Early pop to 20.90–21.10 sells off; price fades to 20.20–20.35 by midday/into close. Optional late-day extension to 20.05–20.15.
Alternative bullish (≈25–30%): Acceptance above 21.10; squeeze tests 21.35 (R1). Only a firm base above 21.35 invalidates the short and opens 21.80–22.00.
Tail risk (≈10%): Gap down open, minimal bounce, quick flush to 19.95–20.05, then revert-to-mean bounce into 20.3–20.5.

Bias: Short on strength into resistance due to confluence of supply zones (20.95–21.35), momentum rollover, and distribution profile.
Optimal entry: 20.99 limit (inside the 20.95–21.10 LVN, near intraday 38.2% retrace of the close-to-high drop), maximizing reward-to-risk.
Profit target window: 20.05–20.20. Primary target 20.05 aligns with S1 overshoot/round-number magnet.
Risk management (not part of the requested outputs but critical): Consider a protective stop above 21.35 (R1/above Kijun and supply shelf). That frames roughly 0.36 risk for ~0.94 reward (R:R ~2.6:1) if entered at 20.99 targeting 20.05.
If no bounce: A market short at 20.65 carries reduced edge; in that case target 20.20 with a tighter stop above 21.05, but the preferred plan is patience for a pop-and-fade.

Premarket/first 60–90 minutes often probe prior day P/VWAP regions. Expect a liquidity sweep toward 20.95–21.05. Watch tape vs VWAP: rejection with heavy offers confirms entry; acceptance above 21.10 warns to wait or abort.

Expect choppy early strength that stalls beneath 21.10–21.35, followed by a fade toward 20.20, with an extension to 20.05 possible if breadth/semis are soft. A sustained hold above 21.35 would negate the short thesis and open a squeeze toward 21.8–22.0, but odds favor a sell-the-rip setup in the current post-gap regime.