INTC: Dip Buy at 38.2% Fib Support Sets Up a Pivot Reclaim Toward $24.5

Intel (INTC) snapshot and context

• Timestamp: 2025-08-18 21:00 UTC
• Current price: $23.66 (post-market last print clustered ~$23.69 on 21:00 bar)
• Today’s range: High $24.90, Low $23.21, Close $23.66 on elevated volume; intraday rejection near $24.9 with a strong dip to $23.21 followed by a partial recovery.
• Recent path: From Aug 1 low $19.31 to Aug 15 high $25.65 (+33%), then a healthy pullback (-7.7%) to $23.66.

1. Trend and moving averages (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Uptrend remains intact after a sharp August momentum burst. Price is above the 10/20/50-day MAs. • 5SMA ≈ $23.22 (price > 5SMA; short-term trend still positive) • 10SMA ≈ $21.71 (firmly below price; bull bias) • 20SMA ≈ $21.36 (rising; confirms broader upswing) • 50SMA (est.) ≈ $21.1–$21.4 (rising; price > 50SMA)
• Hourly trend (today): Intraday down-to-sideways after the opening push; price closed below today’s VWAP/pivot, but stabilized above key support.
• Interpretation: Structural uptrend with a pullback to a logical retracement. The MA stack (price > 20/50) favors buying dips rather than shorting rips.

2. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): High 50s to low 60s after peaking above 70 around Aug 15. Interprets as strong-uptrend-cooling; room to reaccelerate.
• MACD daily: MACD line above signal and zero following August breakout; histogram has compressed post-pullback, indicating a momentum pause rather than a reversal.
• Stochastics daily: Rolled off overbought; fast %K near mid-zone, allowing a fresh turn up if price reclaims pivot zones.
• Read: Momentum paused, not broken. A reclaim of intraday VWAP/pivot should re-expand upside momentum.

3. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): $1.00–$1.20. Today’s true range ($1.69) exceeded ATR, a capitulation-like flush toward $23.2.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ $21.36; upper band ≈ high $23s (est. ~$23.7–$24.0). Price pulled back from band-riding; now just below/near upper band, consistent with consolidation before a secondary push.

4. Volume, accumulation/distribution

• Volume: Heavy on Aug 14–15 (breakout) and again today (pullback), suggesting rotation rather than trend failure.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): Uptrend since early August; today’s sell volume significant but met by buying off $23.21, hinting demand at 38.2% Fib (see below).
• Read: Rally days had broad participation; pullback saw dip buyers defend a key level. No clear distribution top yet.

5. Market structure: supports/resistances, gaps, supply/demand

• Supports: • $23.20–$23.25: Today’s low aligns with 38.2% retrace of the Aug impulse; first strong demand shelf. • $22.90–$23.00: S1 pivot vicinity and prior pivot lows; secondary support. • $22.50: 50% retrace; next higher-timeframe demand zone. • $21.75–$21.85: 61.8% retrace and recent breakout area.
• Resistances: • $23.92–$24.05: Daily pivot and VWAP region; first reclaim trigger. • $24.35–$24.40: Intraday supply shelf from midday pop. • $24.60–$24.65: R1 pivot vicinity; tactical profit zone. • $24.90–$25.00: Failed intraday high cluster; breakout gate to re-test ATH of this cycle ($25.65). • $25.65: Recent swing high.
• Gaps: Aug 14–15 gap-and-go; Aug 18 partial gap down. No clear exhaustion gap pattern confirmed.

6. Fibonacci framework (swing Aug 1 low $19.31 to Aug 15 high $25.65)

• 23.6%: $24.15 (price dipped below; indicates deeper mean reversion)
• 38.2%: $23.23 (today’s low $23.21 kissed this level; classic uptrend buy zone)
• 50%: $22.48
• 61.8%: $21.74
• Read: Respect of 38.2% with immediate bounce favors continuation higher toward $24.3–$24.6 if pivot/VWAP is reclaimed.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is well above the likely daily cloud; Tenkan (9) has pulled back toward price, Kijun (26) materially lower. Bullish regime intact; a Tenkan bounce often resumes trend.

8. Elliott wave (qualitative)

• A plausible count: Wave 1 ($19.3→$22.2), Wave 2 ($22.2→$20.7), Wave 3 ($20.7→$25.6), now a Wave 4 pullback (to 38.2% at ~$23.2). If valid, a Wave 5 attempt could target prior high $25.6 or a modest new swing high, pending sector risk.

9. Intraday microstructure and pivots (for next session)

• Classic pivots from Aug 18 (H $24.8995, L $23.21, C $23.66): • Pivot (P) ≈ $23.92 • R1 ≈ $24.64; R2 ≈ $25.61 • S1 ≈ $22.95; S2 ≈ $22.23
• VWAP (today, est.) ≈ $23.9–$24.0. Price closed below VWAP/P, suggesting sellers had intraday control, but proximity means a small bid can flip the tape bullish.
• Tactics: Either buy the dip near $23.3–$23.4 (above 38.2% Fib) or buy strength on a sustained reclaim above $23.95 with volume.

10. Pattern recognition and candles

• Daily: Long lower shadow (not a classic hammer since close < open) off a precise 38.2% Fib; constructive demand response after a heavy flush.
• 60-min: A base forming between $23.60 and $23.90 after the midday flush; series of higher lows late session.
• Read: Often leads to an upside test of the nearest supply plateau ($24.3–$24.4) next.

11. Statistical context and probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (55%): Range trade with upward skew; early probe to $23.35–$23.45, then reclaim of $23.90–$24.05 pivot, targeting $24.35–$24.65 by tomorrow’s session.
• Bear case (25%): Loss of $23.20 leads to a fast liquidity sweep into $22.90 then $22.50 (50% Fib) before stabilizing.
• Bull extension (20%): Strong sector tape; immediate reclaim of pivot and push through $24.65, testing $24.90–$25.10.

12. Confluence summary

• Uptrend intact (price > 20/50DMAs) with momentum cooled, not broken.
• 38.2% Fib at $23.23 held on heavy volume—textbook pullback buy-the-dip level.
• Pivot/VWAP at ~$23.92 is the near-term trigger; above it, the path to $24.35–$24.65 opens.
• Risk clearly defined below $23.20 (and especially below $22.95), with stronger downside acceleration only if $23.20 fails.

Next 24-hour price outlook

• Expected range: $23.30–$24.70.
• Bias: Mildly bullish. A brief early dip toward $23.35–$23.45 is likely; then a grind higher toward $24.35 and potentially $24.50–$24.65 if pivot reclaims with volume.

Trade plan (tactical swing/overnight)

• Position: Buy the dip.
• Entry: $23.40 limit (above $23.23 Fib support, within the buy zone $23.30–$23.45).
• Target (take profit): $24.48 (below R1 $24.64 and under intraday supply $24.60; increases fill probability within 24h).
• Stop (discipline, not part of order fields): $23.08 (below today’s 38.2% and beneath intraday structure), risking ~$0.32.
• Reward-to-risk: ~$1.08 / $0.32 ≈ 3.4:1.
• Alternative momentum entry: Add/scale on sustained reclaim >$23.95 with rising volume; same target band $24.48–$24.65.
• Invalidation: Hourly close below $23.20 or a heavy-volume break below $22.95 shifts bias to test $22.50; would not hold longs under that scenario.

Risk notes

• Sector sensitivity (semis) can add beta; headline risk (supplier/peer earnings) may expand ranges beyond ATR. Size appropriately.

Conclusion

• The confluence of an intact higher-timeframe uptrend, a defended 38.2% retracement, rising MAs, and clear pivot triggers supports a tactical Buy-the-dip with a 24h objective into $24.4–$24.6. Manage risk below $23.20/$22.95 in case the pullback deepens to the 50% Fib ($22.48).