INTC poised for a second thrust: buy the 25 handle for a 26.2–26.4 test within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for INTC (Intel) as of 2025-08-19 close

1. Market structure and trend

• Primary trend (daily): Uptrend. Since the early-August breakout (Aug 11–15), price has transitioned from a July base (19.5–21.5) into an impulsive advance, printing higher highs and higher lows. Today’s wide-range up day (H=26.53, L=24.95, C=25.31) follows a one-day pullback on Aug 18 that successfully held the prior breakout zone.
• Secondary trend (intraday): Sideways-to-up consolidation above the 25 handle. After spiking to 26.53 at the cash open, price faded toward 25.15–25.50 and stabilized around 25.15–25.40 into the close/after-hours. This looks like intraday digestion at new value, not a failed breakout.
• Structure notes: The sequence from Aug 8 low (~19.95) to Aug 15 high (~25.65) was an impulsive leg; Aug 18 pullback to 23.21/23.66 created a higher low versus the Aug 13 close (22.22), then Aug 19 breakout attempt exceeded the prior high intraday (26.53 > 25.65), closing back at 25.31. This is consistent with a bullish continuation pattern (bull flag breakout and acceptance above 25).

2. Price levels: support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate support: 25.00–25.15 (round number, intraday base, late-session acceptance); 24.55–24.60 (Aug 15 close, heavy-volume benchmark); 24.94 (Aug 19 gap-open and session midpoint zone). Losing 24.94 risks partial gap fill.
• Deeper supports: 23.66 (Aug 18 close), 23.21 (Aug 18 low and 38.2% retracement confluence), 22.55 (June 24/Jul 3 cluster), 22.20 (61.8% retracement from Aug swing).
• Resistances: 25.75 (intraday supply), 26.24–26.30 (R1 pivot band—see pivots), 26.53 (today’s high), 26.85 (Fibonacci 1.272 extension), 27.00 (psych level), 27.18 (R2), 27.82 (R3/stretched target).

3. Pivot points (classical, using H=26.53, L=24.95, C=25.31)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 25.5967
• R1 = 26.2434; S1 = 24.6634
• R2 = 27.1767; S2 = 24.0167
• R3 = 27.8234; S3 = 23.0834 Interpretation: Tomorrow’s pivot structure favors upside tests if price holds above ~25.00 and reclaims the pivot (25.60). The first achievable magnet is R1 ≈ 26.24.

4. Fibonacci mapping (swing: Aug 8 low 19.95 to Aug 15 high 25.65)

• 38.2% = 23.42 (Aug 18 low 23.21 slightly overshot then reclaimed—healthy shallow retracement)
• 50% = 22.80 (untested)
• 61.8% = 22.19 (untested)
• Extensions: 1.236 ≈ 26.50 (tagged today), 1.272 ≈ 26.85 (next extension), 1.618 ≈ 28.22 (stretch target, less likely in 24h) Interpretation: Perfect behavioral bounce at 38.2% indicates a strong trend. Price tagged the 1.236 extension (26.5) and backed off; next magnet above is 26.85 if momentum re-accelerates.

5. Moving averages and trend quality

• Short MAs (5–10 day EMA/SMA): rising sharply, now catching up in the 24.0–24.5 area. Price is extended but stabilizing above them; pullbacks to the low-24s remain buyable unless trend structure changes.
• 20-day: rising, likely in ~22.5–23.0 area after the recent surge.
• 50-day: inflecting higher (low-21s to low-22s by inference). 20>50 indicates a bullish alignment. Interpretation: Classic bullish MA stack and positive slope across timeframes. Momentum regime supports buy-the-dip bias above 24.5.

6. Momentum gauges

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Likely mid-to-high 60s after the surge and mild cooldown—bullish but not extreme. No clear bearish divergence at the daily level; intraday saw a normal momentum fade off the spike.
• Stochastics: Cycling down from overbought on intraday timeframes as price compresses; daily remains in a bullish zone.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Positive and expanding post-pullback; histogram likely began re-widening today after a one-day contraction. Interpretation: Momentum is constructive; pullbacks are getting bought; no strong exhaustion signal post-retest.

7. Volatility and bands

• ATR (14d estimate): Elevated and expanding (approx 1.4–1.7) after multiple gap-and-go sessions. Expect wide intraday swings to persist.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding or piercing the upper band; bands are widening, confirming a trending-volatility regime. Minor closes back inside the band are part of trend health, not immediate reversals, in expansion phases.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/above the upper channel, consistent with momentum thrusts. Interpretation: Volatility expansion aids trend continuation but increases wick risk; entries near intraday support improve reward-to-risk.

8. Volume/participation and accumulation signals

• Volume: Aug 14–15 and Aug 18–19 prints are exceptionally heavy (188M, 310M, 212M, 293M), indicating strong institutional participation. Today’s breakout attempt on heavy volume is constructive even with a close off highs.
• Accumulation/distribution (qualitative): Dips are attracting buyers; closes are generally mid-to-upper range over the past week except the Aug 18 shakeout. Net effect points to accumulation above 24. Interpretation: Big volume “proved” higher prices. As long as 24.5–25 holds, buyers remain in control.

9. Gaps and market profile

• Open gap from Aug 19 (24.94 open) vs Aug 18 close (23.66). This is a breakaway/continuation gap in context of strong trend. Partial fills can occur, but holding above 24.94 preserves bullish gap structure.
• Value migration: Value is shifting up from 24.0 to 25.0–25.5. Acceptance today around 25.2–25.4 is constructive. Interpretation: As long as the 24.9–25.0 area is defended, the gap acts as a springboard for further upside.

10. Intraday structure and VWAP

• Today’s cash session likely anchored VWAP around ~25.4 (estimate given large early volume at highs). The close was slightly below VWAP (~25.31), reflecting consolidation rather than distribution (no cascade lower, buyers defended 25.15 repeatedly). After-hours held near 25.14–25.15. Interpretation: A reclaim of VWAP/pivot (25.40–25.60) early next session would likely invite a push to R1 (26.24) and a retest of today’s high.

11. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above a rising cloud; Tenkan > Kijun after the thrust; Span A turning up and likely above Span B. Classic bullish state. Interpretation: Pullbacks to the Tenkan (approx mid-24s) are buyable in trend.

12. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 19.95 → ~22.2
• Wave 2: Shallow pullback to ~20.8–21.0 (late June/early July swings)
• Wave 3: 21 → 25.65 impulse (Aug 8–15)
• Wave 4: 25.65 → 23.21 (Aug 18 corrective dip ~38.2%)
• Wave 5: In progress; typical targets 1.236–1.272 extensions (26.5–26.85), with potential to stretch to R2 (~27.18) if momentum reignites. Interpretation: The wave count supports at least one more attempt higher in the next 1–3 sessions; in 24h, 26.2–26.5 is plausible.

13. Statistical expectations (next 24h)

• Using ATR ≈ 1.5, the 1-day expected move from 25.31 is ~23.8–26.8. With bullish skew and strong participation, probability-weighting favors tests toward 26.2–26.5 while holding 24.9–25.1 on dips.
• Pivot map aligns with this (S1 24.66, R1 26.24). Baseline path: early dip to 25.0–25.2 → reclaim pivot (25.6) → test R1 (26.24). Stretch: tag 26.5–26.85.

14. Risk management and trade structuring

• Thesis: Buy-the-dip in an uptrend with strong breadth/volume, defended gap support, and bullish extensions unfulfilled (1.272).
• Entry: Prefer limit buy near 25.05–25.15 (prior intraday base, round-number support, above gap-open 24.94).
• Stop (discipline): 24.45 (below Aug 15 close 24.56 and S1 24.66, but above the deeper 23.66 close), balancing noise vs structure. Risk per share ≈ 0.60–0.70 from a 25.05–25.15 fill.
• Take profit (24h tactical): 26.25 (R1 cluster and just below failing liquidity near 26.3), offering ≈ +1.10–1.20 reward; R:R ≈ 1.6–2.0 depending on fill. Stretch TP2 if managing actively: 26.80 (1.272 ext).
• Invalidation: A strong, high-volume break and hourly close below 24.55 would negate the immediate continuation setup and warn of a gap-fill drive toward 24.0–24.2.

15. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base case (≈55%): Hold 25.0–25.2 on the open, reclaim pivot 25.6, push to 26.2–26.4; potential wick toward 26.5. Close near/above 26.0.
• Range/neutral (≈25%): Chop between 24.9 and 25.8, no decisive pivot reclaim; another attempt higher within two sessions.
• Bearish risk (≈20%): Lose 24.94 early, test 24.6 (S1). If not reclaimed quickly, partial gap-fill toward 24.2–24.0 before buyers reassert.

Bottom line

• Multiple techniques (trend, Fibonacci, pivots, volume-profile, momentum, and wave structure) align bullishly. The cleanest tactical edge is a buy on a modest dip into 25.05–25.15 with a 24h target near 26.25, acknowledging volatility with a protective stop under 24.45. If momentum overperforms, 26.5–26.85 can print; if underperforms, expect a hold above 24.9 and continued consolidation.

Risk note: This is a tactical, short-horizon plan in a high-volatility regime; adjust position size accordingly and honor stops.