Intel at a Crucial Fib Pivot: Buy the 38–50% Pullback for a 24‑Hour VWAP Reversion

Comprehensive, step-by-step technical analysis for INTC over the next 24 hours

Data context and what matters now

• Instrument: Intel (INTC)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: ~23.54 (last prints near 23.46–23.54)
• Session 8/20 (most recent): High 24.933, Low 23.3302, Close ~23.54, very elevated volume (~158.8M for the daily bar; intraday 13:30 hour alone ~64.4M)
• Prior day (8/19) close: 25.31; recent swing high: 26.53 (8/19); recent swing low: 19.31 (8/1)

1. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend since 8/1: Higher highs/higher lows from 19.31 → 25.31/26.53, i.e., a strong impulsive advance.
• Today’s action: sharp pullback from the highs, but price still holds well above the 20-day mean and well above early-August lows; structure remains a bullish uptrend undergoing a standard corrective retracement.
• Hourly structure 8/20: Gap/slide from 24.9 down to the 23.3–23.9 band, then range-bound stabilization. That’s a classic “impulsive sell → base” sequence, not a trend collapse.

2. Key moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~21.47 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 23.5 is significantly above, confirming an intact medium-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx, inferred): low-22s. Price remains above.
• Takeaway: The pullback has not violated primary trend MAs; dips toward 22.9–23.3 are still above trend support, favoring buy-the-dip tactics.

3. Volatility: ATR and expected range

• ATR(14) (estimated from the last 14 sessions): ~1.32.
• Implication for next 24h: A typical 1x ATR move suggests a probable range of ~22.2–24.9 from current 23.5. This supports the idea that a push to 24.1–24.5 is feasible in one session, provided the base holds.

4. Fibonacci retracements (from 8/1 low 19.31 to 8/19 high 26.53)

• Range: 7.22 points.
• 38.2% retrace: 26.53 − 0.382*7.22 ≈ 23.77.
• 50% retrace: 26.53 − 0.500*7.22 ≈ 22.92.
• 61.8% retrace: 26.53 − 0.618*7.22 ≈ 22.06.
• Price printed 23.33 today and oscillated around 23.5–23.8. We bounced just under the 38.2% level and remain above 50% (22.92). This is textbook wave-4/type pullback territory within an ongoing up-move. The 22.9–23.0 zone is a high-importance support confluence.

5. Classical pivot points (based on 8/20 H/L/C = 24.933/23.3302/23.54)

• Pivot (P) ≈ (24.933 + 23.3302 + 23.54)/3 ≈ 23.934.
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 24.539; S1 = 2P − H ≈ 22.936.
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 25.537; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 22.332.
• Expectation: Tomorrow’s balance point sits near 23.93. Key tests: S1 ≈ 22.94 (aligns with 50% Fib) and R1 ≈ 24.54 (aligns with prior supply). A rotational day between 22.94 and 24.54 is likely, with a slight bias to probe P first if the base holds.

6. Bollinger Bands (20, 2) – qualitative

• Mid-band ≈ 20-SMA ≈ 21.47.
• With price at 23.5, we’re above the mid-band, and after a strong run the pullback is relieving upper-band pressure. There’s room to mean-revert upward intraday toward the prior upper-channel, especially if buyers defend the base.

7. RSI(14) – qualitative

• RSI ran hot into the 8/19 peak and cooled today. Likely cycling from overbought toward mid-50s/low-60s now. This is healthy consolidation, not a breakdown signal.

8. MACD (daily) – qualitative

• MACD line turned up strongly during the early-August rally and likely remains above zero, though the histogram is compressing due to today’s pullback. Momentum deceleration is normal after a surge; no clear bearish crossover implied yet. Bias remains constructive unless we lose the 22.9 floor.

9. Ichimoku (daily) – qualitative approximation

• Tenkan (9) likely around the mid-23s; Kijun (26) likely ~22.2–22.5 region.
• Price above Kijun and roughly near/slightly above Tenkan implies trend intact with a near-term mean-reversion magnet around Tenkan (~23.3–23.6). Cloud support should be below current price, consistent with a buy-the-dip stance.

10. Anchored VWAP and session VWAP

• Session VWAP 8/20 (using heavy 13:30 hour weighting) approximates mid-23.6’s.
• Price oscillated slightly below/around VWAP into the close. A classic setup for a next-day VWAP reversion push if early demand appears.

11. Market profile / volume analysis

• Notable high-volume node around 23.5–23.7 from the 13:30–15:30 EST block; another liquidity shelf near 23.35.
• The strongest supply above sits 23.9–24.6 (prior distribution ledge and pivot R1). Acceptance above ~23.9 opens a path to 24.3–24.5.

12. Candlestick/price-action tells (daily and intraday)

• Daily: large real body down, but not a full trend-break; it’s a distribution day after a steep multi-day rise. No long upper shadow capitulation; lower tail shows responsive buying sub-23.5.
• Intraday: Impulsive drop into 23.3–23.5 followed by balancing. That base-building often precedes a retracement toward the session’s composite point of control/VWAP the following day.

13. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 19.31 → ~22.2; Wave 2: pullback ~20.6; Wave 3: 20.6 → 26.5; Wave 4: current retrace 26.5 → 23.3 (in the 38–50% window); Wave 5 potential: attempt toward 25–26 re-test in coming sessions. Near term (24h), a Wave 4-to-5 transition often starts with a bounce into resistance (24.1–24.5).

14. Regression channel / mean reversion

• Short-term regression on the last 7–10 sessions would place the mean in low-24s given the surge; today’s print below the regression mean sets up a snap-back toward 23.9–24.2 provided supports hold.

15. Gaps and levels to watch

• Immediate support: 23.33 intraday low; then 23.24–23.30 micro shelf; major: 22.94 (S1, 50% Fib).
• Immediate resistance: 23.77–23.93 (Fib 38.2/Pivot P), then 24.30–24.54 (R1/overhead supply). Above that: 24.9–25.3 prior close/supply.

16. Risk assessment and scenario mapping (24h)

• Base case (55%): Early dip toward 23.30–23.40 gets bought, price reverts to 23.9–24.3 by the cash close. Rationale: confluence of Fib support, pivot math, VWAP reversion, and intact daily uptrend.
• Bear case (25%): Loss of 23.30 leads to a stop run toward S1 22.94, then bounce. Would still be a normal retracement in the bigger picture; only a daily close below ~22.9 would downgrade the setup.
• Bull extension (20%): Quick reclaim of 23.9–24.0 leads to 24.4–24.6 test (R1) within the session. Given ATR, it’s plausible but requires strong tape breadth.

17. Confluence summary

• Momentum cooled but trend intact (above 20/50-day MAs and Kijun).
• Pullback sits between 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Aug leg, exactly where healthy corrections end.
• Pivot S1 = 22.94 aligns with 50% Fib. Pivot P ~23.93 aligns with immediate resistance magnet. R1 ~24.54 aligns with prior supply/top of expected reversion zone.
• Elevated volume suggests emotion flushed weak hands; the orderly afternoon balance hints at absorption rather than panic.

Trading plan (24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip for a VWAP/mean reversion pop.
• Optimal entry: Staggered limit around 23.30–23.40 (preferably 23.35) near intraday shelf and Tenkan/VWAP zone.
• Profit target (24h realistic): 24.20–24.40, with scale-out into 24.30 (under round-number and below R1 to improve fill odds).
• Risk guardrail (not part of the requested fields but crucial): Stop below 22.88 (under S1/50% Fib) to avoid deeper correction risk. R:R ~ 1.8–2.2 if entered near 23.35 and targeting 24.30.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expect a constructive bounce toward 23.9–24.3, provided 23.30 holds on an early probe. A loss of 23.30 risks a flush to ~22.9 before buyers reassert. Net bias: upward drift back toward the pivot (~23.93) and potentially into the 24.2–24.4 band.

Decision

• Buy (Long position). The confluence of Fib support, pivot S1 alignment, intact higher-timeframe trend, and VWAP reversion probabilities supports a tactical long for the next 24 hours.