INTC: Hammer-at-50% Fib Sets Up a VWAP-Reclaim Bounce Toward 24

Executive summary and bias

• Timeframe: next 24 hours
• Bias: mildly bullish rebound after a sharp 2-day pullback; expect a retest of 23.8–24.2 provided 22.9–23.1 support holds.
• Plan: buy the dip near intraday VWAP/anchored support; target the first resistance cluster around R1/R2 and 38.2% Fib.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher-timeframe context (daily): INTC staged a powerful momentum leg from the 8/1 swing low (~19.31) to the 8/19 swing high (~26.53). That impulse was followed by a swift two-session retracement to ~23.5, which is between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of that run. This is classical wave-4/AB corrective behavior within an emerging uptrend.
• Recent candles: • 8/19: long upper shadow (shooting-star-esque) at new swing high → first warning of exhaustion. • 8/20: wide red body close to lows (distribution day) → momentum unwind. • 8/21: small real body with a long lower tail (hammer-type) after probing into 50% Fib (~22.92) with an intraday low ~22.78 → dip was bought, bulls defended mid-retracement.
• Intraday tape today (hourly): early gap fade to 23.145 then a sequence of higher lows (23.04 → 23.24 → 23.22 → 23.36 → 23.44) and a close around 23.46–23.50, reclaiming VWAP into the close. That’s constructive for a next-session bounce attempt.

2. Key levels (confluence of multiple methods)

• Fibonacci (swing 19.31 → 26.53; delta = 7.22): • 23.6%: 24.83 • 38.2%: 23.77 • 50%: 22.92 • 61.8%: 22.07 Current close ~23.5 sits between 38.2% and 50%. Today’s low briefly pierced 50% (22.78) then reclaimed—bullish tell.
• Classic floor pivots (using today’s H=23.57, L=22.775, C=23.50): • Pivot P ≈ 23.28 • R1 ≈ 23.79 (aligns with 38.2% Fib at 23.77) • R2 ≈ 24.08 • R3 ≈ 24.58 • S1 ≈ 22.99 (near 50% Fib 22.92) • S2 ≈ 22.49
• Horizontal S/R from structure/volume: • 25.30–26.53: major supply from the spike high zone. • 24.50–24.90: near-term resistance shelf (8/15 close 24.56, 8/18 high ~24.90). • 23.75–23.85: immediate resistance (Fib 38.2 + R1 + yesterday’s breakdown area). • 23.10–23.30: intraday acceptance band/VWAP region; first support on dips. • 22.75–22.95: stronger support (today’s low + 50% Fib + S1). • 22.20–22.60: secondary demand zone (prior breakout shelf from 8/12–8/14).

3. Trend and moving averages

• 5-day SMA ≈ 24.11 (price below): very short-term trend turned down after the two-day pullback.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 22.91 (price above): short-term trend remains up.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 21.47 (price well above): intermediate trend up. Interpretation: pullback within an uptrend (price below 5SMA but above 10/20SMAs). Often a buy-the-dip setup if support holds.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): mid-to-high 50s after cooling from overbought last week. Not overbought/oversold; room both ways; slight bullish tilt if it curls up from the midline.
• Stochastic (%K, 14): ~58% of recent range—neutral-to-positive; a turn up would confirm a bounce.
• MACD (12/26/9) qualitative read: line still positive after the August impulse, histogram has compressed with the pullback; risk of a shallow bearish cross if price lingers sub-23.6 Fib, but a push over ~23.8 would likely re-expand the histogram positive.
• ADX (approx): trending regime with ADX in low/mid-20s after the surge; current move is a corrective pause rather than a trend break.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~1.2–1.3. A 1xATR move from 23.5 projects to ~24.7 on the upside or ~22.2 on the downside over a session—frames feasible targets/stops.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): mid ~21.5, upper ~24.5, lower ~18.5 (approx). Price is in the upper half of the envelope, not at extremes; plenty of room to tag the mid-upper band (24.0–24.5) on a bounce.

6. Ichimoku read (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ mid of last 9 highs/lows → roughly ~23.6.
• Kijun (26) ≈ ~22.2.
• Price ~23.5 is hovering around Tenkan and is comfortably above Kijun and a likely rising cloud. This is typically bullish-continuation territory if Tenkan holds as dynamic support.

7. Volume, VWAP, and accumulation/distribution

• Volume: outsized participation on 8/14, 8/15, 8/19 (institutional footprints). Today’s volume is elevated vs. earlier summer readings, yet the candle shows buying off lows—suggests accumulation on weakness.
• Intraday VWAP (today): reclaimed into the close (~23.3–23.4 zone). A next-session hold above VWAP favors upside follow-through toward R1/R2.
• OBV/MFI qualitative: both improved during the August advance; today’s rebound off 50% Fib with strong volume hints at continued net inflow despite the pullback.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag / falling wedge anatomy on lower timeframes following the impulsive rally: today’s higher-lows structure and hammer tail mark a potential end to the micro-correction.
• Elliott context: Wave 3 (8/1→8/19), wave 4 corrective (ongoing), with scope for a wave 5 test of 24.8–25.6 later. For the next 24 hours, a wave 4-to-5 transition attempt implies 23.8–24.2 first.

9. Confluence check (why a bounce is favored)

• Price respected and reclaimed the 50% Fib after a brief undercut (bear trap dynamic), closed near the highs of the day.
• R1 at ~23.79 aligns with 38.2% Fib at 23.77—first magnet if buyers press early.
• 10/20 SMAs are rising below price; Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun supportive; MACD still positive; RSI above 50 and turning.
• Intraday microstructure improved into the close with VWAP reclaim and higher lows.

10. Risk factors to invalidate

• A decisive loss of 22.9 (50% Fib + S1) that holds for hours would open 22.5 then 22.1 (61.8% Fib). That would turn this into a deeper corrective leg and delay the bounce.
• Market beta: if broader indices gap down sharply, expect tests of 23.1 then 22.9 before any rebound.

11. Scenario map for the next 24 hours

• Bullish (55%): Early hold above 23.30–23.40, push through 23.70–23.80 (R1/Fib 38.2), extension into 24.00–24.20 (R2/upper mid-BB). Close near highs.
• Base (30%): Chop 23.20–23.80 as price builds acceptance above pivot (23.28); late-day push determines direction.
• Bearish (15%): Early failure at 23.50 with a swift break of 23.10, sustained trade below 22.95; slide toward 22.5 before stabilizing.

12. Trade plan (next 24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into 23.3–23.4 with stop below today’s low/50% Fib cluster.
• Entry: Limit ~23.38 (near VWAP and micro support). Alternate momentum entry: breakout >23.80 toward 24.1 (higher risk of slippage).
• Take profit: First target 24.15–24.20 (R2/near upper mid-band). Stretch target if momentum and tape strong: 24.50–24.60 (R3/BB upper region), but that’s less likely within 24h.
• Risk management (not part of the order fields but strongly advised): Stop ~22.75 (below today’s low and the 50% Fib) to avoid whipsaw. Risk ~0.63 vs. base TP ~0.77–0.82 → R:R ≈ 1.2–1.3. If aiming for stretch 24.6, R:R ≈ 1.9–2.0.
• Position sizing: adjust to risk per trade; consider partial TP at 23.80 (R1) and trail rest under rising VWAP/last swing low.

Bottom line

• The technicals argue for a tactical long: strong August uptrend, clean 50% Fib undercut-and-reclaim, pivot/Fib confluence just overhead, improving intraday structure, and supportive moving-average stack. Next 24 hours favor a pop toward 23.8–24.2 barring a breakdown below ~22.9.