Intel Sits Below the 50% Gap Pivot: Set Up to Fade Bounces Under 29

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish continuation with a high-probability retest of 28.40–28.10 after losing the 38.2% retrace pivot and closing just below the 50% gap midpoint.
• Trade idea: Fade bounces into 28.95–29.15 toward 28.10; invalidate on sustained reclaim of 29.60–29.70.

1. Regime and context

• Post-gap digestion: On 2025-09-18 INTC gapped from the mid-25s to the low 30s (open ≈31.78, high ≈32.38) on extreme volume (≈524M). Since then, three sessions of distribution pulled price down to 28.76. This is a classic post-gap “shakeout and price discovery” phase where initial euphoria is sold and price gravitates toward Fibonacci pivots and VWAP anchors.
• Volume regime: 9/18 ≈524M, 9/19 ≈225M, 9/22 ≈128M. Still elevated but decelerating—selling pressure persists, yet the pace is moderating. That favors controlled downside drift punctuated by counter-trend bounces into resistance.

2. Price action anatomy (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Prior to the gap, INTC had stair-stepped from ~20 to ~25 through Aug/early Sep. The gap launched price to the low 30s, immediately met with supply. Last three sessions: lower highs and lower lows, closing near session lows—a bearish sequence.
• Intraday (9/22): Opened 29.67, spiked to 30.10, then trended lower the entire session: 30.10 → 28.71 low, close 28.76. Lower highs on each hour; closing print near the lows signals weak hands into the bell and a propensity for early follow-through selling next session.

3. Fibonacci structure of the gap move (key insight) Define swing range as pre-gap close to gap-day high:

• Pre-gap reference (9/17 close): ≈25.27
• Gap-day high (9/18): ≈32.38
• Range: ≈7.11
• 38.2% retracement: 32.38 − 0.382×7.11 ≈ 29.66 (lost intraday today; sellers defended)
• 50% retracement (gap midpoint): (25.27 + 32.38)/2 ≈ 28.83 (cash close 28.76 = a decisive close below the midpoint)
• 61.8% retracement: ≈28.38 (high-probability magnet if the midpoint cannot be reclaimed) Interpretation: Closing below the 50% midpoint after failing at 29.66 shifts tactical control to sellers. Next magnet is 28.38, with extension to the round 28.00/27.90 zone if momentum extends.

4. Support/resistance map

• Nearby resistance: 28.95–29.15 (intraday supply shelf), 29.31–29.35 (hourly congestion/VWAP memory), 29.50, and 29.66 (38.2% of gap, pivotal). Above that, 30.00/30.10 (today’s high) and 30.60 (9/18 close) are higher hurdles.
• Nearby support: 28.70–28.75 (intraday shelf), 28.38 (61.8% fib), 28.00–27.90 (round + measured move), 27.40 (≈78.6% fib), with a structural support band 26.5–25.6 (Aug breakout zone) if liquidation deepens later in the week.

5. Moving averages (directional impulse)

• Daily short MAs: Fast MAs (e.g., 5–10 day) have curled higher from August but are now flattening post-gap; today’s selloff pulled price back toward the rising 5–10 day region. This is consistent with a pullback within a larger emerging up-move, but the next 24h skew remains down unless 29.6+ is reclaimed.
• Intraday EMAs (30–60 min): Bearish alignment (price < 20/50 EMAs) with intraday rallies consistently failing at declining EMAs—signals to fade bounces.

6. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): Cooling from overbought post-gap toward neutral; not deeply oversold yet, allowing room for further downside to 28.4/28.0 before mean reversion kicks.
• RSI (intraday 30–60 min): Hovered low-to-mid 30s into the close—bearish, but not at exhaustion extremes; supports continuation after light bounces.
• MACD (daily): Histogram rolling over from a gap-induced surge; downside momentum building, consistent with a drift to the 61.8% retrace.
• MACD (intraday): Below signal and zero line across mid- to higher-intraday frames; any bounce into zero line likely meets supply.

7. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily, approx): Expanded to ~1.2–1.5 on gap week. Today’s range (≈1.39) sits within the expanded ATR, leaving room for another 0.7–1.0 move tomorrow. A 28.76 close leaves 28.05–28.10 well within a one-session swing.
• Bollinger Bands
  • Daily: Bands expanded on the gap; price has mean-reverted from upper band toward mid-band. Not yet at the lower band on daily—room to slide before daily oversold.
  • Intraday (20-period): Price “walked” the lower band much of the day, reinforcing trend persistence.

8. VWAP and session structure

• Today’s session VWAP: Estimated around 29.2–29.4 given early heavy volume near 29.6–30.0 and prolonged time below 29.3 thereafter. Closing ~1.5–2.0% below VWAP is a hallmark of trend days; day-two continuation commonly probes lower before any meaningful reversal.
• Strategy implication: Shorting pops toward prior-session VWAP/declining MAs has positive expectancy under this regime.

9. Volume profile and participation

• Distribution characteristics: Elevated but declining volume across the three post-gap sessions suggests funds distributing shares into strength and into intraday bounces.
• Micro shelf: 28.70–28.85 traded repeatedly late day; breaks of 28.70 typically accelerate to 28.40 and 28.10 due to thin liquidity in that pocket.

10. Pattern recognition

• Post-gap fade: Failure to hold 29.66 (38.2%) and close below 28.83 (50%) forms a bearish continuation pattern toward 61.8% (28.38).
• Intraday: A series of bear flags broke lower throughout the day; late-day doji near lows signals temporary indecision but within a broader down channel—often resolved lower at next open unless a catalyst flips the tape.

11. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Minor bounce on open toward 28.95–29.15 gets sold; price rotates to 28.40 (61.8%), then overshoots toward 28.10; settles 28.1–28.5 by the close.
• Bear extension (25%): Early weakness slices 28.38 quickly, tags 28.00/27.90; weak bounce into close.
• Bull risk (20%): Gap up above 29.30, efficient push to 29.50–29.66; sustained acceptance above 29.66 turns the day into a squeeze toward 30.00–30.60 and invalidates the short setup.

12. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell strength while below 29.60–29.70 (the 38.2% pivot and intraday supply).
• Optimal entry: 28.95–29.15 (fade bounce into prior session supply and under VWAP memory). If no bounce, consider a break/retest entry below 28.70 with tight risk.
• Profit target: 28.10 (captures the expected move through 61.8% 28.38 into round-number liquidity).
• Invalidation (risk control, not an order): Sustained trade >29.66–29.70 or a 30-min close above with rising volume. Suggested stop region: 29.68.
• Approximate R:R from 29.05 entry: Target 28.05–28.10 (≈−$0.95 to −$1.00), risk to 29.68 (≈+$0.63), R:R ≈1.5–1.6x.

13. What would flip me bullish in 24h?

• Acceptance back above 29.66 (38.2% fib) with a VWAP reclaim and higher lows on 30–60 min, ideally with breadth/volume confirmation. That would set sights on 30.00–30.60 and negate the short idea.

Conclusion

• The confluence of a close under the 50% gap midpoint (≈28.83), repeated failure at the 38.2% retrace (≈29.66), a below-VWAP close on a trend day, and persistent intraday lower highs favors shorting bounces for a tactical move into 28.40 → 28.10 over the next 24 hours.