INTC’s Post-Gap Power Trend: Buy the Dip into S1, Aim for a Push Toward R2

Executive summary and bias

• Regime: Powerful post-gap uptrend with momentum and high volume. Price closed at 35.50 after printing a fresh swing high 36.30 on heavy breadth. Short-term is overbought but with strong accumulation. Base case for the next 24 hours: buy-the-dip toward S1/Fib confluence, then a retest of Friday’s high and a probe into R2.
• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after an early pullback. Preferred tactic: limit buy on weakness near 34.6–34.8 with a take-profit into 36.9–37.2.

1. Price action, structure, and candlesticks

• Step-function repricing on 2025-09-18 (gap up: open 31.78 vs prior close 24.90), followed by constructive consolidation and a second surge 09-25/26 to 35–36. This is classic gap-and-go/mark-up behavior.
• 2025-09-26 candle: O=35.02, H=36.30, L=34.49, C=35.50. Green real body with both wicks; print above prior close (33.99). Not a blow-off (real body modest vs range), suggesting controlled advance, not exhaustion.
• Intraday after-hours ticks hover around 35.38–35.41, clustering near the classical pivot (≈35.43), implying balanced conditions into the next open.

2. Trend analysis (multi-timeframe context)

• Short-term trend (last week): Higher highs and higher lows from 28.76 (09-22) to 36.30 (09-26). Steep, momentum-led channel. Estimated slope ≈ +1.7 points/day over last four sessions.
• Intermediate trend (since 09-18): Bullish regime shift. Even after the 09-19/22 pullback to 28.76, buyers reclaimed control, making a higher high and closing strong.
• Long trend vs moving averages (see below) confirms price is extended above medium/long MAs, typical for the first thrust after a re-rating.

3. Support/resistance mapping (confluence-focused)

• Classical floor pivots (using 09-26 H/L/C = 36.30/34.49/35.50):
  • Pivot P ≈ 35.43
  • R1 ≈ 36.37, R2 ≈ 37.24, R3 ≈ 38.18
  • S1 ≈ 34.56, S2 ≈ 33.62, S3 ≈ 32.75
• Fibonacci retracements of the 09-22 low (28.76) to 09-26 high (36.30):
  • 23.6% ≈ 34.52 (nearly identical to S1 ≈ 34.56)
  • 38.2% ≈ 33.42 (near S2 zone 33.6–33.4)
  • 50% ≈ 32.53; 61.8% ≈ 31.65
• Gap/price memory levels:
  • 09-26 day low 34.49 (bullish line in sand; matches 23.6% Fib and S1)
  • 09-25 close 33.99 (prior breakout close; key back-test level)
  • 09-24 close 31.22; 09-18 gap low 30.16 (deeper supports if momentum cracks)
• Resistance:
  • 36.30 (Friday’s high)
  • 37.24 (R2 projection)
  • 38.2–38.5 (extension/psychological overhang if squeeze continues)

4. Moving averages (direction, slope, positioning)

• Fast MAs (e.g., 5/8/10 EMA) would be trending sharply up and stacked bullishly below price, reflecting momentum. Expect 5–10 EMA cluster roughly 34.9–35.3 by next session open (given slope), acting as initial dynamic support.
• 20-SMA/EMA: still catching up; likely in the low 30s to ~33 given the recent burst. Price is extended above the 20, typical after a regime shift; often invites shallow mean reversion or sideways digestion rather than immediate reversal in strong tapes.
• 50/100/200 SMA: well below (mid-20s to high-20s), confirming structural uptrend but also showing extension risk if liquidity fades.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) estimation from the last 14 closes suggests RSI ≈ 82 (deep overbought). In strong uptrends, overbought can persist; however, it raises probability of shallow pullbacks to rising supports (S1/10EMA) before further highs.
• Stoch RSI/Williams %R: expected pinned in overbought zones, consistent with momentum thrusts. Not a timing sell signal by itself in trend markets.
• MACD(12,26,9): Strongly positive and expanding; histogram likely still rising, no daily bearish divergence yet. This favors continuation following brief dips.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) elevated, ~2.0± after the gap and two wide sessions. Expect an intraday range of roughly 1.6–2.2. That brackets a reasonable day plan: dips toward 34.6–35.0 and pushes into 36.7–37.3.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price likely riding above/near the upper band. Band expansion confirms trend. A tag outside the band early could trigger a small mean reversion toward the 10EMA/Pivot before trend continuation.
• Keltner Channels: Price near outer band; expansion indicates momentum regime, not a squeeze.

7. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Volume surge: 523.9M on 09-18, 295.7M on 09-25, 268.0M on 09-26. Rising price on heavy volume = accumulation, validates breakout.
• 09-26 volume-weighted mean likely near the daily pivot (~35.4). After-hours clustering near 35.4 supports this VWAP gravity; expect first reaction around that zone on next open.
• Post-gap volume profile likely shows a developing Point of Control in the 33.8–34.2 area (09-24/25 accumulation), a strong support shelf if the first dip extends beyond S1.

8. Ichimoku, PSAR, and trend systems

• Ichimoku: Price well above Tenkan and Kijun; future cloud turning bullish. Classic strong-bull reading; pullbacks to Tenkan (approx low 30s-to-~33 earlier; rising fast) are buyable in trend.
• Parabolic SAR would trail under price (likely mid-33s to low-34s), reinforcing the idea that a decisive break of 33.9–33.6 would signal short-term momentum fatigue.

9. Pattern recognition and measured moves

• Gap-and-go with follow-through. The 09-25 to 09-26 extension resembles the second leg. A measured move using the 09-24→09-25 advance (~31.22 to 33.99 ≈ +2.77) projects from 09-26 open 35.02 to ≈ 37.79 (stretch objective). R2 (37.24) is the conservative version; 37.7–38.0 is the ambitious extension if a squeeze ignites.
• Elliott-wave framing (heuristic): Wave 3 likely in progress or recently printed; anticipate a shallow wave 4 pullback into 34.5–35.0, then a wave 5 push toward 37.0–38.0. This dovetails with the pivot/Fib confluences.
• DeMark Sequential (qualitative): After multiple up closes, nearing an exhaustion count; often resolves with a brief pause/pullback, not necessarily a top in a new trend.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 34.6–35.0 (S1/10EMA/Pivot confluence), buyers step in, push to retest 36.30 and extend toward 36.9–37.2 (R2 vicinity). Close strong 36.3–36.9.
• Consolidation (30%): Range 34.8–36.0, digestion around pivot/VWAP, neutral close 35.2–35.8. Healthy pause ahead of another leg later in the week.
• Bearish tail (15%): Momentum stalls; break below 34.5 opens 33.9–33.6 (38.2%/S2). Would likely attract dip buyers on first test; sustained trade below 33.6 would threaten the short-term uptrend and target 32.5.

11. Risk management notes

• Key bull line: 34.49–34.56 (S1/Fib 23.6%). Lose this decisively and price likely tags 33.9–33.6. That area must hold to preserve immediate momentum.
• With ATR ~2, entries should allow for 0.8–1.0 tolerance beneath support for noise. For a 24-hour swing, a pragmatic stop would sit under ~33.9.

Final synthesis

• Momentum, breadth, and structure favor buying weakness rather than chasing strength. The optimal high-odds location is the S1/Fib 23.6% cluster around 34.5–34.7, aligned with the daily pivot gravity and rising short MAs. Profit-taking targeted just under R2 (37.24) respects typical resistance interaction while capturing the expected continuation leg.

Prediction for next 24h

• Expect a pullback into 34.6–35.0 early, followed by a rally to 36.9–37.2. Probability-weighted directional bias: Up.