LCID in Freefall: Technical Breakdown Signals More Downside—Why the $2.00 Level Is in Sight

Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) 24-Hour Technical Outlook: Exhaustive Step-By-Step Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term (4 Months):
  • LCID has been in a consistent downtrend since February, with lower highs and lower lows. The price has dropped from ~$2.80–$3.40 range to the current $2.19 level.
  • Most recent high: $2.96 on 2025-05-20, with rapid selling pressure afterward.
• Short-Term:
  • Over the last 5 trading sessions, price broke under major support at $2.60 and $2.40, and now finds itself at new multi-month lows (~$2.19).
  • Minor consolidation is observed around $2.20, but bounces have been weak and quickly sold off.

2. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Major Resistance Levels:
  • $2.40 (previous support now resistance)
  • $2.60 (failed rebound zone)
  • $2.96 (swing high on 2025-05-20)
• Immediate Support:
  • $2.16 (intraday minor low on 2025-06-03)
  • $2.12 (close on 2025-03-03 – older support)
  • Psychological: $2.00 (round number, possible hard stop region)

3. Volume & Liquidity

• Recent high volumes during large declines (259M on 2025-05-30; 201M on 2025-06-02), signaling institutional exit and panic selling.
• On rebound days, volume remains elevated but with weak follow-through, indicating insufficient buying conviction.
• Intraday volume today remains strong, showing continued interest in dumping shares.

4. Candlestick Patterns & Price Action

• Successive daily closes near session lows indicate persistent bearish sentiment.
• Intraday: Attempts to rally above $2.21–$2.23 are sold into; wicks above $2.20 are rejected; closes around $2.19–$2.20 region.
• Recent bars: Doji/indecision at $2.20, followed instantly by new sell pushes—signals more downside ahead, not a true reversal base.

5. Moving Averages Analysis

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
  • 5-day SMA: ~2.32 (above current price: bearish)
  • 20-day SMA: ~2.50 (far above current price: additional resistance)
  • Price consistently trades below SMAs, with no attempt to reclaim lost ground.
• Implication: Downward momentum is reinforced, moving averages acting as dynamic resistance.

6. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimated RSI is in the 28–33 region (oversold). Oversold does not guarantee reversal; persistent, steep declines can keep RSI suppressed.
• In context, RSI has lingered in oversold before further legs down—a sign of trending bear market.

7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD line deep below the signal and zero lines. No bullish divergence detected. Histogram remains negative, suggesting duration and intensity of downside is sustained.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Lower band expansion with price hugging the band at $2.19.
• There is no evidence of mean reversion; rather, price is ‘walking the band’—a classic sign of trend acceleration.

9. Order Flow & Tape Reading

• Intraday, every pop towards $2.21–$2.23 is met with higher ask volume and rapid absorption. No signs of large bids or “walls” to absorb downward movement.
• Tape confirms sellers overpower buyers at each resistance test.

10. Fibonacci Retracement (Major High-to-Low)

• High ($3.48, 2025-02-18) to Low ($2.19, current): No major retracements achieved. Price unable to even test 23.6% level (~$2.48): indicates extreme weakness.

11. ATR (Average True Range) & Volatility

• Recent ATR expansion signals heightened volatility, but always to the downside; intraday range 2.16–2.22 is tight but biased negative.
• Downward moves are rapid and unchallenged; attempted bounces are small and short-lived.

12. Pattern Recognition

• Breakaway Gap Down (2025-05-30): Heavy gap down from $2.41 to $2.23 on monster volume, which was never filled—major technical damage.
• Bearish Flag Failures: Multiple consolidation regions ($2.40–$2.60) have resolved downward over the past 2 weeks.
• No Valid Bullish Reversal Patterns: No observable double bottoms, inverted head and shoulders, or higher lows.

13. Sentiment & Broader Context

• LCID has a history of persistent downtrends after failed rallies. EV sector sentiment is currently negative, and capital rotation out of speculative names is ongoing.
• Market context: Broader indices mixed, but LCID has shown high-beta downside with no defensive qualities.

14. Summary Table

Indicator	Signal	Implication
Trend	Down	Bearish
Support	Weak	Bearish
Volume	High on Down	Bearish
RSI	Oversold	Ongoing downtrend
MACD	Negative	Bearish
SMA/EMA	Above Price	Resistance
Price Action	Closes at Low	Bearish
Pattern	Failed Flags, No Reversal	Bearish

Synthesis & Prediction

• The confluence of strong downward momentum, high volume on declines, lack of meaningful support holds, and absence of bullish technical patterns all align for continued pressure lower.
• Short-covering bounce is possible, but will be limited and met with selling into any pop ($2.20–$2.23 max).
• Market ‘wants’ to test psychological round number $2.00 in the coming sessions.
• Short-term predicted range next 24h: $2.15–$2.05

Risk Management

• Tight stops suggested above $2.24 (invalidation zone if rapid reversal occurs).
• Take profit in $2.05–$2.10 region before round-number bids may appear at $2.00.

Trading Decision

• Stance: Bearish
• Optimal short entry: $2.19 (current price), with ideal add-on if minor pop to $2.21
• Target exit for profit: $2.07

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Conclusion: All technical layers point to more downside. Play for the breakdown, not the bounce. Sell rallies into resistance, and cover as price approaches the anticipated psychological support at $2.00–$2.07.