Technical Analysis for Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) — 2025/06/09

1. Market Overview

Lucid Group (LCID) closed at $2.23 in the latest session, following a prolonged period of both sharp declines and volatile sideways action. The daily and intraday charts show significant volume surges on volatile days, indicating both institutional exits and attempts at absorption/support buying.

2. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: The chart demonstrates a persistent downtrend since the multi-month highs above $3.50 in February 2025, making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Most recently, support around $2.20 has been tested multiple times (March, April, early June), forming a descending triangle — a bearish continuation pattern.
• Short-Term Trend: Price action since late May confirms a downward impulse from $2.96 down to $2.19, with only minor rallies being sold into. The short-term moving average slope remains negative.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Primary Support: $2.13—$2.16. This range has been repeatedly tested as a reversal zone in early June. A decisive breach could trigger stop losses and further downside.
• Overhead Resistance: $2.26—$2.26 was a level LCID struggled to reclaim on several intraday bounces. More significant resistance sits above at $2.33—$2.40.
• Volume Analysis: Huge sell volume days (May 30, June 2, June 5) coincide with breakdowns, while bounce attempts have not matched those volumes, indicating weak buy-side conviction.

4. Candlestick Patterns & Price Action

• Recent Candles: The daily candles consistently show upper wicks (long shadows), reflecting failed rallies and seller strength intraday. Intraday on 6/09, after spiking slightly to $2.26, price quickly retraced to $2.24, closing flat — a sign of exhaustion after a weak rebound.
• Pattern Recognition: The past month features a classic descending triangle (lower highs, flat base around $2.13–$2.20). These typically resolve to the downside, especially in a weak fundamental sector like EVs currently.

5. Moving Averages (SMA, EMA)

• 20-Day SMA: The 20-day simple moving average is trending below the 50-day, confirming a short-term downtrend; price remains beneath both averages.
• Crossover Potential: No signal for reversal (no bullish crossover).

6. Momentum Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Likely in low 30s — reflecting oversold territory, but the persistent low level with failed rallies suggests a bearish consolidation, not imminent reversal.
• MACD: Bearish — MACD line is below the signal line, both trending down. No convergence/divergence observed to suggest a trend reversal.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Hovering in the oversold region, but again, no clear bullish divergence.

7. Volatility & Volume Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): Volatility has picked up considerably in the last 10 sessions. Wide candles and huge volume spikes (esp. late May/early June) suggest forced selling/liquidations.
• Volume Profile: Volume at price is notably heavier at $2.50–$2.70, indicating supply zone. The drop in volume at the $2.20–$2.23 band aligns with weak support — a warning for a possible breakdown if bids thin out.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

From the swing high near $3.00 (May 20) to the swing low at $2.13 (June 5), the 23.6% retracement is around $2.31, and 38.2% at $2.43. The price repeatedly fails to reclaim even the 23.6% level, confirming bearishness and resistance to advances.

9. Pattern & Sentiment Analysis

• Bearish Pattern Confirmation: The descending triangle and repeated failed rallies from oversold territory suggest further downside is likely.
• Fundamental Backdrop: Though not primary in short-term trading, the general negative sentiment on EV stocks due to macro conditions and sector rotations increases bearish conviction here.

10. Professional Techniques & Strategy Recommendations

• Breakdown Play: Entering short (SELL) on a bounce toward $2.24–$2.26 maximizes reward/risk, targeting a breakdown of the $2.13–$2.16 support base.
• Stop-Loss Considerations: A protective stop (for short) would be set just above $2.29 (minor breakout of resistance).
• Scalping Opportunity: For intraday, sell into strength between $2.24–$2.26 with a $2.13 target on breakdown.
• Volume Confirmation: Look for another spike in sell volume as confirmation before adding to the position.

11. Price Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

Given the technical and volume cues, the most likely scenario is a retest and breakdown of the $2.13–$2.16 support. Price could move swiftly to the next psychological floor at $2.08 or even $2.00 if sell momentum accelerates, especially given the weak, narrow trading band and absence of any meaningful reversal signals.

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Conclusion: LCID's trend is decisively bearish. Expect a breakdown of current support, with a high-probability move to $2.13 or lower in the next trading session. Best risk/reward is to enter a short position near current prices ($2.23–2.24) and target a move down to $2.13. Remain alert for any abnormal reversal volume, but as of now all signals point to more downside ahead.