Lucid Group, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

LCID’s Tenuous Grip on $2: Bear Trend Signals Looming Breakdown – Time to Sell the Bounce?

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: LCID Price Action (as of July 7, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily & Hourly)

Long-Term Trend: LCID has been in a pronounced downtrend since mid-May, evidenced by a series of lower highs and lower lows from the $2.96 peak. The most recent daily closes confirm a persistent struggle to reclaim lost territory. The current price ($2.11) marks a significant decline from the early-June support area ($2.20–2.25) and the heavy-volume sell-off zones ($2.5–2.8), confirming continued bearish pressure.

Short-Term Trend (Last 2 Weeks): Price has attempted to base between $2.10–2.20 but continues to make marginal new lows. Failed rallies toward $2.16–2.20 repeatedly meet resistance and close poorly, a strong negative sign.

2. Volume Analysis

Bearish Volume Imbalance: Multiple recent sessions have shown above-average volume on down days (notably June 27, July 1, and July 3), indicating institutional selling rather than retail profit-taking.
No Volume Spike on Bounces: Rallies off support ($2.10–2.20) lack conviction, with lighter volume, confirming bounce attempts are largely driven by short-covering/weak hands rather than true accumulation.

3. Support & Resistance

Major Resistance: $2.16 (recent hourly highs, repeated rejection in last 3 sessions) and $2.20 (confluence of prior support flip).
Immediate Support: $2.10 (today's session low), then $2.05, and psychological $2.00.

4. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages (MA): Estimating the 20-period and 50-period MAs, both are declining, with price persistently trading below the shorter MA — consistent with a strong downtrend. Attempts to cross above the MAs have failed quickly.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Based on oscillation between $2.05–$2.16 and failure to exceed the $2.20 area, RSI likely sits in the 35-45 range—no clear oversold signal yet, allowing for further downside.
MACD: Visual inspection suggests bearish crossover occurred post-$2.30, with the gap still widening—a strong momentum sell signal.

5. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Structures

Continuous Lower Highs: Repeated rejection candles at hourly resistance ($2.10–2.13) and daily resistance confirm lack of bullish momentum.
Bear Flags: The recent grind along $2.09–2.16 with tight, weak bounces forms classic bear flag patterns—typically continuation setups for further downside.
Absence of Bullish Reversal: No bullish engulfing or hammer patterns on daily/hourly close, confirming no imminent reversal.

6. Volatility & Momentum

ATR (Average True Range): Elevated in previous weeks during sell-off spikes, but currently compressing—implies potential for sharp movement (breakout/breakdown) from consolidation.
Momentum: Severe lack of upward momentum; even on green candles, follow-through is absent. Down candles generally wider, closing at/near lows.

7. Market Sentiment and Order Flow

Psychological Levels: $2.00 is a major round-number support; its breach could accelerate downside rapidly due to stop triggers and sentiment washout.
Order Flow (Intraday): Most recent hourly candles demonstrate tight range with sellers capping any attempt above $2.11—order book likely top-heavy.

8. Comparative/Relative Analysis

Relative Weakness: While the S&P/EV sector is stabilizing after a sell-off, LCID underperforms peers—shows isolated company-specific weakness.
No Sector Tailwind: Broader EV sector relief rallies have not lifted LCID, reinforcing the stock-specific bear case.

9. Risk-Reward and Entry/Exit Strategy

Sell Entry Optimal Zone: $2.10–$2.11. Close to resistance, allows tight risk controls.
Downside Target (Profit-Take/Close): Next volume-supported support: $2.00 round number. Below that, risk of an accelerated move to $1.90–$1.95, but prudent to cover at $2.00 for high-probability reward.
Stop Loss: Can be set at $2.16 (last minor swing high/resistance) for those trading with defined risk.

10. Alternative Scenarios

Bullish Alternative: Only credible on a decisive close above $2.16–$2.20 with above-average volume and bullish reversal candle—currently absent.

Conclusion & 24-Hour Prediction

LCID remains in a strong downtrend, with little evidence of a reversal. Weak bounce attempts, persistent lower highs, heavy volume on declines, and repeated failure at resistance all argue for further selling pressure. Expect the $2.10–$2.00 range to be tested, with high likelihood of a $2.00 breakdown in the next 24 hours barring a dramatic shift in sentiment or external catalyst.

Bias: Short the bounce into $2.11; target cover at $2.00. Risk/reward heavily favors a short (sell) position.