Lucid Group, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

LCID Post-Breakout Collapse: Technical Breakdown Signals Further Downside Ahead—Short at $2.85

Price Trend: From late March to mid-June, LCID traded mostly sideways to slightly down, largely between $2.10 and $2.50 with occasional spikes toward $2.85.
Major Event: On July 17th, a massive volume breakout ($3.12 close on >940M volume vs. previous avg <150M) to $3.37, followed by a sharp reversal lower over the next days ($3.04 on July 18, $2.82 on July 21).
Current: Rapid retracement from recent highs; current price at $2.82, below the post-breakout high. Today's session (July 21) was highly volatile (intraday high $3.12, low $2.76), but closed near the session lows, indicating strong sell-off pressure.

Initial Gap Up: Opened strongly at $3.06–$3.12, failed to hold, cascading down to $2.76 in heavy selling.
Consolidation: Last two hours hovered at $2.81–$2.82, with declining volume, suggesting buyers are not stepping in with conviction yet.

Volume Anomalies: Exceptional surge in volume on July 17 (almost a 7x increase from previous days) with corresponding price spike; classic exhaustion/bull trap scenario, followed by two days of high-volume reversal—likely profit-taking and/or trapped longs bailing out.
MACD (inferred, not plotted): A powerful, unsustainable bullish surge just snapped back. The rapid mean reversion and failure to hold breakout levels point to a short-lived momentum burst now in the process of dissipating.

Breakout Failure: $2.30–$2.30 base broke out to $3.37, then failed rapidly—classic breakout-failure setup (bull trap).
Long Upper Wicks: Recent candles show long wicks near the highs (July 17-18-21), reflecting failed attempts at higher prices, a hallmark of trend exhaustion.
Engulfing Bearishness: Each subsequent day since the top closes lower, engulfing prior ranges—death of momentum.

Immediate Support: $2.75–$2.80 (today’s low and the zone with highest recent volume—should be tested soon).
Deeper Support: $2.60, then $2.35 (recent consolidation ranges from late June–early July).
Upside Resistance: $2.95–$3.00 (breakdown zone from today and prior highs). Any recovery should struggle at these levels, with sellers likely to reload.

Short-term Averages (10–20 period): Likely rolling over/flattening after the parabolic move, indicating a transition from bull phase to possible mean reversion or corrective phase.
Long-term (50-100 period): Remain flat/declining, suggesting no structural uptrend established.

Condition: The strong pop likely put RSI into overbought (>70); the rapid retrace and failure to bounce suggest ongoing bearish divergence, with bears in control in the very short term.

Climactic Buyers Likely Trapped: Those who chased the breakout are now underwater. High likelihood of forced liquidations or stop-loss selling below today's lows ($2.76–$2.80 area).
Low-Bid Recovery Attempts: With volume tailing off into the close and lack of strong buying, suggests the market is setting up for another test lower before stabilization.

Volatility Spike: ATR (Average True Range) has exploded upwards due to the late-week whipsaw. Price has broken below the breakout zone, riding the lower band.
Mean Reversion Potential: Such volatility events often see a multi-day retrace/mean-reversion—however, so far, there is no sign of a bottom, suggesting further downside pending.

Sentiment Swing: From bullish euphoria (breakout) straight into fear/exit. This swing commonly takes a few sessions to resolve and rarely bounces straight back up—usually more pain for recent buyers before base formation.
Market Positioning: Late buyers are trapped; shorts and patient buyers aiming for lower prices are likely to prevail over the next 24h, given the current pattern and market psychology.

Short-term Bias: Intraday and swing indicators aligned bearishly. The post-exhaustion pattern typically resolves with a re-test of the prior range and often a break below, as oversupply must get absorbed.
Optimal Entry (Short): A rebound/pullback toward $2.85–$2.87 (close to failed support, now resistance) would offer the best risk/reward for a new short position.
Target (Cover): $2.62—this is both within the high-volume node of the previous two weeks and just above the lower end of the recent pre-spike consolidation base.

A strong move above $2.95 on heavy volume would invalidate the short thesis and point to a shakeout, so stops should be placed above this level.
Unexpected news or positive catalysts could reverse bearish sentiment rapidly, so monitoring for afterhours headlines is prudent.

Setup: Failed breakout, heavy-volume reversal, waning buyer liquidity. The market is likely to probe lower support with further liquidation-driven selling.
Actionable Plan: Look to sell (short) a small rebound toward $2.85–$2.87, with a first target of $2.62. If $2.80 fails quickly in the cash session, consider an aggressive short entry on a bounce.

Given all the above, the optimal action is to SELL (SHORT POSITION) at $2.85, targeting a cover at $2.62 in the next 24 hours.